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Working Paper
Redefault Risk in the Aftermath of the Mortgage Crisis: Why Did Modifications Improve More Than Self-Cures?
This paper examines changes in the redefault rate of mortgages that were selected for modification during 2008?2011, compared with that of similarly situated self-cured mortgages. We find a large decline in the redefault rate of both modified and self-cured mortgages over this period, but the improvement was greatest for modifications. Our analysis has identified several important factors contributing to the greater improvement for modified loans, including an increasing share of principal-reduction modifications, which appear to be more effective than other types of modification and ...
Discussion Paper
What Explains the Post–2011 Trends of Longer Maturities and Rising Default Rates on Auto Loans?
This paper quantifies relationships of long-term auto borrowing and auto-loan default to observable borrower characteristics and economic variables. We also quantify the residual components of the trends in long-term borrowing and delinquency not attributable to identifiable factors. Second, our paper provides new evidence on the relationship between longer-term borrowing and auto-loan default risk. We find that observable factors associated with the choice of a long loan term usually indicate an increased risk of default. We also find that the increasing share of long-term loans and the ...
Journal Article
The proconsumer argument for interstate branching
Journal Article
Changes in the distribution of banking offices
The past twenty years have been marked by major structural and regulatory changes in the banking industry. This article explores the relationships between these changes and the distribution of "brick and mortar" banking offices between 1975 and 1995. The analysis explores how population shifts, deregulation, and mergers, acquisitions, and failures may have influenced changes in the number and location of banking offices. Special attention is given to changes in banking office distributions across neighborhoods grouped by the median income of their residents and their central city, suburban, ...
Working Paper
Financing, commitment and entry deterrence
Working Paper
Credit cycle and adverse selection effects in consumer credit markets -- evidence from the HELOC market
The authors empirically study how the underlying riskiness of the pool of home equity line of credit originations is affected over the credit cycle. Drawing from the largest existing database of U.S. home equity lines of credit, they use county-level aggregates of these loans to estimate panel regressions on the characteristics of the borrowers and their loans, and competing risk hazard regressions on the outcomes of the loans. The authors show that when the expected unemployment risk of households increases, riskier households tend to borrow more. As a consequence, the pool of households ...
Working Paper
On estimating technical progress and returns to scale