Search Results
Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 39.
(refine search)
Journal Article
Risk Aversion at the Country Level
Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben; Gandelman, Nestor
(2015)
This article estimates the coefficient of relative risk aversion for 75 countries using data on self-reports of personal well-being from the 2006 Gallup World Poll. The analysis suggests that the coefficient of relative risk aversion varies closely around 1, which corresponds to a logarithmic utility function. The authors conclude that their results support the use of the log utility function in numerical simulations of economic models.
Review
, Volume 97
, Issue 1
, Pages 53-66
Working Paper
Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multi-Wave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP
Galvão, Ana B.; Mitchell, James
(2021-12-23)
Economic statistics are commonly published without any explicit indication of their uncertainty. To assess if and how the UK public interprets and understands data uncertainty, we conduct two waves of a randomized controlled online experiment. A control group is presented with the headline point estimate of GDP, as emphasized by the statistical office. Treatment groups are then presented with alternative qualitative and quantitative communications of GDP data uncertainty. We find that most of the public understands that uncertainty is inherent in official GDP numbers. But communicating ...
Working Papers
, Paper 21-28
Working Paper
Doubts about the Model and Optimal Policy
Karantounias, Anastasios G.
(2020-07-31)
This paper analyzes optimal policy in setups where both the leader and the follower have doubts about the probability model of uncertainty. I illustrate the methodology in two environments: a) an industry populated with a large firm and many small firms in a competitive fringe, where both types of firms doubt the probability model of demand shocks, and b) a general equilibrium economy, where a policymaker taxes linearly the labor income of a representative household in order to finance an exogenous stream of stochastic spending shocks. The policymaker can distrust the probability model of ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2020-12
Working Paper
Insurance and Inequality with Persistent Private Information
Bloedel, Alex; Krishna, R. Vijay; Leukhina, Oksana
(2021-12-10)
This paper studies the implications of optimal insurance provision for long-run welfare and inequality in economies with persistent private information. We consider a model in which a principal insures an agent whose privately observed endowment follows an ergodic, finite Markov chain. The optimal contract always induces immiseration: the agent’s consumption and utility decrease without bound. Under positive serial correlation, the optimal contract also features backloaded high-powered incentives: the sensitivity of the agent’s utility with respect to his report increases without bound. ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2018-020
Working Paper
The Complexity of CEO Compensation
Jarque, Arantxa
(2014-10-02)
I study firm characteristics that justify the use of options or refresher grants in the optimal compensation packages for CEOs in the presence of moral hazard. I model explicitly the determination of stock prices as a function of the output realizations of the firm: Symmetric learning by all parties about the exogenous quality of the firm makes stock prices sensitive to output observations. Compensation packages are designed to transform this sensitivity of prices-to-output into the sensitivity of consumption-to-output that is dictated by the optimal contract. Heterogeneity in the structure ...
Working Paper
, Paper 14-16
Working Paper
Asymmetric firm dynamics under rational inattention
Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Tutino, Antonella
(2014-10-01)
We study the link between business failures, markups and business cycle asymmetry in the U.S. economy with a model of optimal firm exit under rational inattention. We show that the model's predictions of lagged, counter-cyclical and positively skewed markups together with counter-cyclical exit rates are consistent with the empirical evidence. Moreover, our model uncovers a new mechanism that links information processing with the business cycle. It predicts counter-cyclical attention to economic conditions consistent with survey evidence.
Working Papers
, Paper 1411
Working Paper
Understanding Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of Black Swans
Veldkamp, Laura
(2022-12)
Economic uncertainty is a powerful force in the modern economy. Research shows that surges in uncertainty can trigger business cycles, bank runs and asset price fluctuations. But where do sudden surges in uncertainty come from? This paper provides a data-disciplined theory of belief formation that explains large fluctuations in uncertainty. It argues that people do not know the true distribution of macroeconomic outcomes. Like Bayesian econometricians, they estimate a distribution. Our main contribution is to explain why real-time estimation of distributions with non-normal tails results in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2022-083
Report
An overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations
Armantier, Olivier; Zafar, Basit; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert
(2016-11-17)
This report presents an overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations, a new monthly online survey of a rotating panel of household heads. The survey collects timely information on consumers? expectations and decisions on a broad variety of topics, including but not limited to inflation, household finance, the labor market, and the housing market. There are three main goals of the survey: (1) measuring consumer expectations at a high frequency, (2) understanding how these expectations are formed, and (3) investigating the link between expectations and behavior. This report discusses the ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 800
Working Paper
Visible Hands: Professional Asset Managers' Expectations and the Stock Market in China
Ammer, John; Rogers, John H.; Wang, Gang; Yu, Yang
(2022-12)
Unemployment insurance and wage subsidies are key tools to support labor markets in recessions. We develop a multi-sector search and matching model with on-the-job human capital accumulation to study labor market policy responses to sector-specific shocks. Our calibration accounts for structural differences in labor markets between the United States and the euro area, including a lower job-finding rate in the latter. We use the model to evaluate unemployment insurance and wage subsidy policies in recessions of different duration. We find that, after a temporary sector-specific shock, ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1362
Working Paper
OPEC in the News
Plante, Michael D.
(2018-02-01)
This paper introduces a newspaper article count index related to OPEC that rises in response to important OPEC meetings and events connected with OPEC production levels. I use this index to measure how interest in OPEC varies over time and investigate how oil price volatility behaves when the index unexpectedly changes. I find that unexpected increases in the newspaper index are strongly associated with higher levels of oil price volatility, both realized and implied. In some cases, interest levels and price volatility appear to be driven by the OPEC event itself, such as the Iraq invasion of ...
Working Papers
, Paper 1802
FILTER BY year
FILTER BY Bank
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 8 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 6 items
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 6 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 5 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 4 items
Federal Reserve Bank of New York 4 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 2 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond 2 items
show more (4)
show less
FILTER BY Series
Working Papers 15 items
International Finance Discussion Papers 7 items
FRB Atlanta Working Paper 4 items
Globalization Institute Working Papers 3 items
Staff Reports 2 items
Working Paper 2 items
Economic Policy Review 1 items
Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1 items
Policy Hub 1 items
Public Policy Brief 1 items
Review 1 items
Speech 1 items
show more (7)
show less
FILTER BY Content Type
Working Paper 32 items
Journal Article 2 items
Report 2 items
Briefing 1 items
Discussion Paper 1 items
Speech 1 items
show more (1)
show less
FILTER BY Author
Bloedel, Alex 4 items
Karantounias, Anastasios G. 4 items
Krishna, R. Vijay 4 items
Leukhina, Oksana 4 items
Ammer, John 3 items
Caldara, Dario 3 items
Iacoviello, Matteo 3 items
Rogers, John H. 3 items
Wang, Gang 3 items
Yu, Yang 3 items
Zafar, Basit 3 items
Armantier, Olivier 2 items
Bracha, Anat 2 items
Galvão, Ana B. 2 items
Gandelman, Nestor 2 items
Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben 2 items
Kang, Wensheng 2 items
Mitchell, James 2 items
Ratti, Ronald A. 2 items
Topa, Giorgio 2 items
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert 2 items
Vespignani, Joaquin L. 2 items
Wang, J. Christina 2 items
Abadi, Joseph 1 items
Altig, David E. 1 items
Baker, Scott Brent 1 items
Barrero, Jose Maria 1 items
Bloom, Nick 1 items
Brunnermeier, Markus K. 1 items
Bunn, Philip 1 items
Chen, Scarlet 1 items
Cheremukhin, Anton A. 1 items
Davis, J. Scott 1 items
Davis, Steven J. 1 items
DiMaggio, Marco 1 items
Ferrière, Axelle 1 items
Jarque, Arantxa 1 items
Jo, Soojin 1 items
Jovanovic, Boyan 1 items
Kermani, Amir 1 items
Kuchler, Theresa 1 items
Lee, Justin J. 1 items
Ma, Sai 1 items
McAndrews, James J. 1 items
Meyer, Brent 1 items
Mihaylov, Emil 1 items
Mizen, Paul 1 items
Molligo, Patrick 1 items
Parker, Nicholas B. 1 items
Pinto, Santiago 1 items
Plante, Michael D. 1 items
Presno, Ignacio 1 items
Prestipino, Andrea 1 items
Raffo, Andrea 1 items
Ramcharan, Rodney 1 items
Renault, Thomas 1 items
Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. 1 items
Sharp, Robert 1 items
Smietanka, Pawel 1 items
Tang, Jenny 1 items
Thwaites, Gregory 1 items
Tutino, Antonella 1 items
Veldkamp, Laura 1 items
Vesterlund, Lise 1 items
Yu, Edison 1 items
show more (60)
show less
FILTER BY Jel Classification
E66 9 items
D31 6 items
E32 6 items
D82 5 items
C73 4 items
D30 4 items
E31 4 items
E61 4 items
E62 4 items
G12 4 items
H21 4 items
H63 4 items
C1 3 items
C81 3 items
E24 3 items
E44 3 items
G11 3 items
G18 3 items
G23 3 items
L50 3 items
C32 2 items
C82 2 items
D22 2 items
D57 2 items
E01 2 items
F62 2 items
G10 2 items
H56 2 items
I31 2 items
O57 2 items
C11 1 items
C18 1 items
C46 1 items
C63 1 items
C80 1 items
C83 1 items
C91 1 items
D01 1 items
D10 1 items
D14 1 items
D21 1 items
D84 1 items
D86 1 items
E12 1 items
E22 1 items
E42 1 items
E50 1 items
E52 1 items
E70 1 items
F13 1 items
G00 1 items
G21 1 items
G30 1 items
H32 1 items
H41 1 items
O40 1 items
O47 1 items
Q43 1 items
show more (54)
show less
FILTER BY Keywords
textual analysis 5 items
recursive contracts 4 items
Immiseration 3 items
ambiguity aversion 3 items
chinese financial markets 3 items
economic growth expectations 3 items
inequality 3 items
inflation 3 items
multiplier preferences 3 items
mutual fund managers 3 items
persistent private information 3 items
price informativeness 3 items
model uncertainty 3 items
uncertainty 3 items
Business Cycles 2 items
Data Revisions 2 items
Data Uncertainty 2 items
Economic Uncertainty 2 items
Experiments 2 items
Geopolitical Risk 2 items
Terrorism 2 items
Uncertainty Communication 2 items
War 2 items
austerity 2 items
backloaded incentives 2 items
competitive fringe 2 items
dynamic contracting 2 items
employment 2 items
expectations 2 items
fiscal policy 2 items
hours 2 items
industry accounts 2 items
input-output tables 2 items
insurance 2 items
martingale 2 items
measurement 2 items
misspecification 2 items
principal-agent problems 2 items
survey 2 items
Volatility 2 items
Absolute immiseration 1 items
Blockchain 1 items
Business cycle 1 items
COVID-19 1 items
Consensus 1 items
Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) 1 items
Cryptocurrency 1 items
Diffusion Index 1 items
Disaster Risk 1 items
Downside risk 1 items
Earnings Calls 1 items
Epstein-Zin 1 items
FinTech 1 items
Firm-level investment 1 items
Google search activity 1 items
Growth at risk 1 items
Information 1 items
Investment 1 items
Labor market 1 items
Mechanism Design 1 items
OPEC 1 items
Oil price volatility 1 items
Payments 1 items
Qualitative Data 1 items
Quantile Regressions 1 items
Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit 1 items
Ramsey plans 1 items
Ramsey taxation 1 items
Stochastic volatility 1 items
Survey of Consumer Expectations 1 items
Tariffs 1 items
Trade Policy Uncertainty 1 items
Uncertainty Shocks 1 items
Uncertainty and growth 1 items
attention 1 items
balanced budget 1 items
bayesian econometrics 1 items
capital tax 1 items
charitable donations 1 items
consumer credit 1 items
coronavirus 1 items
credit cards 1 items
crowding out 1 items
data innovation 1 items
data stewardship 1 items
deflation 1 items
demand uncertainty 1 items
excess burden 1 items
exit rates 1 items
expectation anchoring 1 items
expectation formation 1 items
expectations formation 1 items
extrapolation 1 items
fiscal consolidation 1 items
fiscal insurance 1 items
forecast bias 1 items
forward-looking uncertainty measures 1 items
high-powered incentives 1 items
inattention 1 items
inflation expectations 1 items
intertemporal elasticity of substitution 1 items
lab experiments 1 items
labor tax 1 items
lending practices 1 items
markups 1 items
monetary policy 1 items
monopolist 1 items
mortgages 1 items
paternalism 1 items
persistent private information. 1 items
pessimistic expectations 1 items
price levels 1 items
public consumption 1 items
rational expectations 1 items
rational inattention 1 items
recursive utility 1 items
relative immiseration 1 items
robustness 1 items
status 1 items
tax smoothing 1 items
taxation 1 items
show more (120)
show less