Working Paper Revision

Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multi-Wave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP

Abstract: Economic statistics are commonly published without estimates of their uncertainty. We conduct two waves of a randomized controlled online experiment to assess if and how the UK public understands data uncertainty. A control group observes only the point estimate of GDP. Treatment groups are presented with alternative qualitative and quantitative communications of GDP data uncertainty. We find that most of the public understands that GDP numbers are uncertain. Quantitative communications of data uncertainty help align the public’s subjective probabilistic expectations of data uncertainty with objective estimates, but do not decrease trust in the statistical office.

Keywords: Experiments; Data Uncertainty; Uncertainty Communication; Data Revisions;

JEL Classification: C82; D80; E01;

https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202128r

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Part of Series: Working Papers

Publication Date: 2022-07-13

Number: 21-28R

Related Works

• Working Paper Revision: Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multi-Wave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP