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Working Paper
Financial Stability and Optimal Interest-Rate Policy
We study optimal interest-rate policy in a New Keynesian model in which the economy can experience financial crises and the probability of a crisis depends on credit conditions. The optimal adjustment to interest rates in response to credit conditions is (very) small in the model calibrated to match the historical relationship between credit conditions, output, inflation, and likelihood of financial crises. Given the imprecise estimates of key parameters, we also study optimal policy under parameter uncertainty. We find that Bayesian and robust central banks will respond more aggressively to ...
Working Paper
Climate-related Financial Stability Risks for the United States: Methods and Applications
This report has two objectives: 1. Review the available literature on Climate-Related Financial Stability Risks (CRFSRs) as it pertains to the United States. Specifically, the literature review considers several modeling approaches and aims to 1.1 Identify financial market vulnerabilities (e.g., bank leverage), 1.2 Provide an assessment of those vulnerabilities (high/medium/low) as identified by the current literature, and 1.3 Evaluate the uncertainty surrounding these assessments based on interpretation of the findings and coverage of existing literature (high/low). 2. Identify methodologies ...
Working Paper
Decentralized Finance (DeFi): Transformative Potential & Associated Risks
Decentralized finance (DeFi) refers to a set of newly emerging financial products and services that operate on decentralized platforms using blockchains to record and share data. DeFi products and services are conducted without a trusted central intermediary such as a bank, and they include payments, lending and borrowing, trading and investments, capital raising (crowdfunding), and insurance. An important innovation that allowed for the development of DeFi was the growth of programming capability on blockchains. This innovation allows for the creation of computer code called smart contracts ...
Working Paper
Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy
We define a measure to be a financial vulnerability if, in a VAR framework that allows for nonlinearities, an impulse to the measure leads to an economic contraction. We evaluate alternative macrofinancial imbalances as vulnerabilities: nonfinancial sector credit, risk appetite of financial market participants, and the leverage and short-term funding of financial firms. We find that nonfinancial credit is a vulnerability: impulses to the credit-to-GDP gap when it is high leads to a recession. Risk appetite leads to an economic expansion in the near-term, but also higher credit and a recession ...
Working Paper
Primer on the Forward-Looking Analysis of Risk Events (FLARE) Model: A Top-Down Stress Test Model
This technical note describes the Forward-Looking Analysis of Risk Events (FLARE) model, which is a top-down model that helps assess how well the banking system is positioned to weather exogenous macroeconomic shocks. FLARE estimates banking system capital under varying macroeconomic scenarios, time horizons, and other systemic shocks.
Working Paper
Tokenization: Overview and Financial Stability Implications
In this paper we outline tokenization, which is a new and rapidly growing financial innovation in crypto asset markets, and we discuss potential benefits and financial stability implications. Tokenization refers to the process of constructing digital representations (crypto tokens) for non-crypto assets (reference assets). As we discuss below, tokenizations create interconnections between the digital asset ecosystem and the traditional financial system. At sufficient scale, tokenized assets could transmit volatility from crypto asset markets to the markets for the crypto token's reference ...