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Working Paper
Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle
López-Salido, J. David; Zakrajšek, Egon; Stein, Jeremy C. (2015-04-25)
Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2015, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t-2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t and t+1. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions. When credit risk is aggressively priced, spreads subsequently widen. The timing of this widening is, in turn, closely tied to the onset of a contraction in economic activity. Exploring the mechanism, we find that buoyant credit-market sentiment in year t-2 also forecasts a change in the composition of external finance: Net debt ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-28

Working Paper
The Shift from Active to Passive Investing : Potential Risks to Financial Stability?
Osambela, Emilio; Kruttli, Mathias S.; Anadu, Kenechukwu E.; McCabe, Patrick E. (2020-06-29)
The past couple of decades have seen a significant shift in assets from active to passive investment strategies. We examine the potential effects of this shift for financial stability through four different channels: (1) effects on investment funds’ liquidity transformation and redemption risks; (2) passive strategies that amplify market volatility; (3) increases in asset-management industry concentration; and (4) the effects on valuations, volatility, and comovement of assets that are included in indexes. Overall, the shift from active to passive investment strategies appears to be ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-060r1

Journal Article
Appendix B: Systemic risk and the financial system (background paper)
Hendricks, Darryll; Mosser, Patricia C.; Kambhu, John (2007-11)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a report -- New Directions for Understanding Systemic Risk -- that presents key findings from a cross-disciplinary conference that it cosponsored in May 2006 with the National Academy of Sciences' Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications. ; The pace of financial innovation over the past decade has increased the complexity and interconnectedness of the financial system. This development is important to central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, because of their traditional role in addressing systemic risks to the financial system. ; ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 13 , Issue Nov , Pages 65-80

Working Paper
Retail Central Bank Digital Currencies: Implications for Banking and Financial Stability
Infante, Sebastian; Kim, Kyungmin; Orlik, Anna; Silva, André F.; Tetlow, Robert J. (2023-11-20)
This paper reviews the literature examining how the introduction of a retail CBDC would affect the banking sector and financial stability. A CBDC has the potential to improve welfare by reducing financial frictions, countering market power in deposit markets and enhancing the payment system. However, a CBDC also entails noteworthy risks, including the possibility of bank disintermediation and associated contraction in bank credit, as well as potential adverse effects on financial stability. The recycling of the new CBDC liability through asset purchases or lending by the central bank plays ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-072

Journal Article
A brief history of central banks
Bordo, Michael D. (2007-12)
One of the world?s foremost economic historians explains the forces behind the development of modern central banks, providing insight into their role in the financial system and the economy.
Economic Commentary , Issue Dec

Speech
Financial stability and economic growth
Dudley, William (2011)
Remarks at the 2011 Bretton Woods Committee International Council Meeting, Washington, D.C.>
Speech , Paper 62

Speech
Financial instability and the Federal Reserve as a liquidity provider : a speech at the Museum of American Finance Commemoration of the Panic of 1907, New York, New York, October 26, 2007
Mishkin, Frederic S. (2007)
Speech , Paper 333

Working Paper
Collateralized Debt Networks with Lender Default
Chang, Jin-Wook (2019-11-26)
The Lehman Brothers' 2008 bankruptcy spread losses to its counterparties even when Lehman was a lender of cash, because collateral for that lending was tied up in the bankruptcy process. I study the implications of such lender default using a general equilibrium network model featuring endogenous leverage, endogenous asset prices, and endogenous network formation. The multiplex graph model has two channels of contagion: a counterparty channel of contagion and a price channel of contagion through endogenous collateral price. Borrowers diversify their lenders because of the counterparty risk, ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-083

Working Paper
The Financial (In)Stability Real Interest Rate, R**
Del Negro, Marco; Benigno, Gianluca; Akinci, Ozge; Queraltó, Albert (2021-01-29)
We introduce the concept of financial stability real interest rate using a macroeconomic banking model with an occasionally binding financing constraint as in Gertler and Kiyotaki (2010). The financial stability interest rate, r**, is the threshold interest rate that triggers the constraint being binding. Increasing imbalances in the financial sector measured by an increase in leverage are accompanied by a lower threshold that could trigger financial instability events. We also construct a theoretical implied financial condition index and show how it is related to the gap between the natural ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1308

Speech
Still more lessons from the crisis
Dudley, William (2009)
Remarks at the Foreign Policy Association Corporate Dinner, New York City
Speech , Paper 9

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