Journal Article
Using monthly data to improve quarterly model forecasts
Miller, Preston J.; Chin, Daniel M. (1996-04)
This article describes a new way to use monthly data to improve the national forecasts of quarterly economic models. This new method combines the forecasts of a monthly model with those of a quarterly model using weights that maximize forecasting accuracy. While none of the method's steps is new, it is the first method to include all of them. It is also the first method to be shown to improve quarterly model forecasts in a statistically significant way. And it is the first systematic forecasting method to be shown, statistically, to forecast as well as the popular survey of major economic ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 20 , Issue Spr , Pages 16-33

Report
Predicting turning points
Geweke, John F.; Miller, Preston J.; Chin, Daniel M. (2000)
This paper presents a new method for predicting turning points. The paper formally defines a turning point; develops a probit model for estimating the probability of a turning point; and then examines both the in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting performance of the model. The model performs better than some other methods for predicting turning points.
Staff Report , Paper 267

Report
Fixed vs. floating exchange rates: a dynamic general equilibrium analysis
Miller, Preston J.; Chin, Daniel M. (1995)
In this study we contrast fixed and floating exchange rate regimes in a dynamic general equilibrium model. We find that the fundamental difference in the regimes is in the courses they imply for monetary policies. Because of policy coordination requirements, a tighter monetary policy needed to maintain a fixed exchange rate may necessitate a tightening in budget policy as well. We show that under some initial conditions voters or a social planner will favor one regime, but under other conditions they will favor the other. However, the choices of voters and a social planner are almost ...
Staff Report , Paper 194