Report
Predicting turning points
Abstract: This paper presents a new method for predicting turning points. The paper formally defines a turning point; develops a probit model for estimating the probability of a turning point; and then examines both the in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting performance of the model. The model performs better than some other methods for predicting turning points.
Keywords: Econometric models;
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File(s): File format is application/pdf http://minneapolisfed.org/research/common/pub_detail.cfm?pb_autonum_id=802
Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Part of Series: Staff Report
Publication Date: 2000
Number: 267