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Keywords:rules 

Working Paper
Policy Rules and Large Crises in Emerging Markets

Emerging countries have increasingly adopted rules to discipline government policy. The COVID-19 shock lead to widespread suspension and modification of these rules. We study rules and flexibility in a sovereign default model with domestic fiscal and monetary policies and long-term external debt. We find welfare gains from adopting monetary targets and debt limits during normal times. Though government policy cannot itself counteract fundamental shocks hitting the economy, the adoption of rules has a significant impact on policy, macroeconomic outcomes and welfare during large, unexpected ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-018

Working Paper
Drifting Inflation Targets and Monetary Stagflation

This paper revisits the phenomenon of stagflation. Using a standard New Keynesian dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium model, we show that stagflation from monetary policy alone is a very common occurrence when the economy is subject to both deviations from the policy rule and a drifting inflation target. Once the inflation target is fixed, the incidence of stagflation in the baseline model is essentially eliminated. In contrast with several other recent papers that have focused on the connection between monetary policy and stagflation, we show that while high uncertainty about monetary ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1426

Working Paper
Policy Rules and Large Crises in Emerging Markets

Emerging countries have increasingly adopted rules to discipline government policy. The COVID-19 shock led to widespread suspension and modification of these rules. We study rules and flexibility in a sovereign default model with domestic fiscal and monetary policies and long-term external debt. We find welfare gains from adopting monetary targets and debt limits during normal times. Though government policy cannot itself counteract fundamental shocks hitting the economy, the adoption of rules has a significant impact on policy, macroeconomic outcomes and welfare during large, unexpected ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-018

Speech
Compliance – some thoughts about reaching the next level

Remarks at the Fordham Journal of Corporate Counsel & Financial Law Symposium, Fordham Law School, New York City.
Speech , Paper 156

Working Paper
Policy Rules and Large Crises in Emerging Markets

Emerging countries have increasingly adopted rules to discipline government policy. The COVID-19 shock lead to widespread suspension and modification of these rules. We study rules and flexibility in a sovereign default model with domestic fiscal and monetary policies and long-term external debt. We find welfare gains from adopting monetary targets and debt limits during normal times. Though government policy cannot itself counteract fundamental shocks hitting the economy, the adoption of rules has a significant impact on policy, macroeconomic outcomes and welfare during large, unexpected ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-018

Speech
Remarks at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association’s Compliance and Legal Society Monthly Luncheon, New York City.

Remarks at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association?s Compliance and Legal Society Monthly Luncheon, New York City.
Speech , Paper 245

Working Paper
Policy Rules and Large Crises in Emerging Markets

Emerging economies have adopted fiscal and monetary rules to discipline government policy. We study the value and macroeconomic implications of rules and flexibility within a sovereign-default model that incorporates domestic fiscal and monetary policies and long-term external debt. Adopting monetary targets and debt limits during normal times yields welfare gains. Suspending rules can significantly influence policy, macroeconomic outcomes, and welfare during large, unforeseen crises. The gains from flexibility depend on how quickly policymakers are able to reimpose rules after the crisis.
Working Papers , Paper 2022-018

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