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Discussion Paper
How Have the Euro Area and U.S. Labor Market Recoveries Differed?
Klitgaard, Thomas (2022-03-30)
The initial phase of the pandemic saw the euro area and U.S unemployment rates behave quite differently, with the rate for the United States rising much more dramatically than the euro area rate. Two years on, the rates for both regions are back near pre-pandemic levels. A key difference, though, is that U.S. employment levels were down by 3.0 million jobs in 2021:Q4 relative to pre-pandemic levels, while the number of euro area jobs was up 600,000. A look at employment by industry shows that both regions had large shortfalls in the accommodation and food services industries, as expected. A ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220330

Journal Article
News Sentiment in the Time of COVID-19
http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Shapiro, Adam Hale; Sudhof, Moritz; Wilson, Daniel J. (2020-04-06)
The COVID-19 pandemic is causing severe disruptions to daily life and economic activity. Reliable assessments of the economic fallout in this rapidly evolving situation require timely data. Existing sentiment indexes are useful indicators of current and future spending but are only available with a lag or have a short history. A new Daily News Sentiment Index provides a way to measure sentiment in real time from 1980 to today. Compared with survey-based measures of consumer sentiment, this index shows an earlier and more pronounced drop in sentiment in recent weeks.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 08 , Pages 05

Journal Article
Responding to Pandemic Learning Loss
Taylor, Sam Louis (2022-04)
The end of this school year marks just over two years since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In that time, students and educators across the country have had to adapt continually to new styles of learning and education delivery. Many students have found success in virtual and hybrid environments, while others have had a more difficult time. This has led to a loss in learning compared to where students would normally have been based on their age and development stage. This loss has the potential to set back these students for years to come, affecting not only their development, but also the ...
Econ Focus , Issue 2Q , Pages 15

Journal Article
Recent and Near-Term Fiscal Policy: Headwind or Tailwind?
Meisenbacher, Brigid C.; Wilson, Daniel J. (2023-11-13)
The federal government routinely uses government spending and taxes to help offset the highs and lows of the U.S. business cycle. While government spending typically increases during a recession, the magnitude of the fiscal expansion during the pandemic recession was outsized compared with the average historical pattern. This likely contributed to real economic growth and possibly inflation during the recovery. Over the next few years, U.S. fiscal policy is expected to be roughly neutral, providing neither a tailwind nor headwind to the overall economy.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 09 , Pages 5

Working Paper
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Business Expectations
Meyer, Brent; Prescott, Brian; Sheng, Xuguang (2020-09-04)
We document and evaluate how businesses are reacting to the COVID-19 crisis through August 2020. First, on net, firms see the shock (thus far) largely as a demand rather than supply shock. A greater share of firms reports significant or severe disruption to sales activity than to supply chains. We compare these measures of disruption to their expected changes in selling prices and find that, even for firms that report supply chain disruption, they expect to lower near-term selling prices on average. We also show that firms are engaging in wage cuts and expect to trim wages further before the ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-17

Discussion Paper
Treasury Market Liquidity and the Federal Reserve during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Fleming, Michael J. (2020-05-29)
Many of the actions taken by the Federal Reserve during the COVID-19 pandemic are intended to address a deterioration of market functioning. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced purchases of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), in particular, “to support the smooth functioning of markets” in those securities. Last month, we showed in this post how one metric of functioning for the Treasury market, market illiquidity, jumped to unusually high levels in March amid massive uncertainty about the economic effects of the pandemic. In this post, we ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200529a

Discussion Paper
Has the Pandemic Reduced U.S. Remittances Going to Latin America?
Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2020-11-09)
Workers' remittances—funds that migrants send to their country of birth—are an important source of income for a number of economies in Latin America, with the bulk of these funds coming from the United States. Have these flows dried up, given the COVID-19 recession and resulting unprecedented job losses? We find that remittances initially faltered but rebounded in the summer months, performing better than during the last U.S. recession despite more severe job losses. Large government income support payments probably explain some of this resilience. Whether remittances continue to hold up ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20201109

Journal Article
Pandemic Homebuyers: Who Were They, and Where Did They Buy?
Sanchez-Moyano, Rocio (2024-10-01)
Stable and affordable housing is foundational for participating in the economy, and homeownership is the primary form of wealth accumulation for most American families. Housing demand changed as households responded to the economic and social environment of the COVID-19 pandemic. As households moved because of these changing conditions and homebuying surged, many popular narratives emerged around migration patterns, “hot” places to buy, and what types of buyers were succeeding in the market.This research brief employs mortgage data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) to examine ...
Community Development Research Brief , Volume 2024 , Issue 02 , Pages 43

Journal Article
Steering Toward Sustainable Growth
Daly, Mary C. (2022-04-22)
The inflation outlook combined with a strong labor market leave no doubt that further monetary policy tightening is appropriate. The question is, how much and how quickly? The appropriate path of policy confronts the economic headwinds immediately ahead while also laying the groundwork for the economy we want in the future. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Center for Business and Economic Research, at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, on April 20.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 10 , Pages 6

Speech
Building an Equitable Future
Williams, John C. (2020-09-24)
Remarks at Economic Inequality Policy Forum: The Impacts of COVID-19 on Communities of Color and Policy Insights for an Equitable Economic Recovery (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

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