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Journal Article
The FHA and the GSEs as countercyclical tools in the mortgage markets
Sherlund, Shane M.; Passmore, Wayne (2018-24-03)
The authors examine the connection between government mortgage programs and economic outcomes during and after the financial crisis. They find a strong correlation between counties that participated more heavily in Federal Housing Administration (FHA)/Veterans Affairs (VA) and government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) mortgage lending before the crisis and better economic outcomes during and after the crisis. Although the financial crisis was a substantial shock to all counties, those more reliant on FHA/VA or GSE lending experienced smaller increases in unemployment rates; smaller declines in ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 24-3 , Pages 28-40

Working Paper
Villains or Scapegoats? The Role of Subprime Borrowers in Driving the U.S. Housing Boom
Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Frame, W. Scott; Conklin, James; Liu, Haoyang (2020-05-19)
An expansion in mortgage credit to subprime borrowers is widely believed to have been a principal driver of the 2002–2006 U.S. house price boom. By contrast, this paper documents a robust, negative correlation between the growth in the share of purchase mortgages to subprime borrowers and house price appreciation at the county-level during this time. Using two different instrumental variables approaches, we also establish causal evidence that house price appreciation lowered the share of purchase loans to subprime borrowers. Further analysis using micro-level credit bureau data shows that ...
Working Papers , Paper 2013

Are Mortgages Becoming More Affordable?
Sanchez, Juan M.; Wilkinson, Olivia (2022-09-08)
U.S. households with preexisting mortgages have loan payments that are fixed. Wage growth means they spend a smaller share of income on housing.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Helping Struggling Homeowners During Two Crises
Elul, Ronel; Newton, Natalie (2021-12-02)
What the Great Recession Can Teach Us About Mortgage Troubles in the Wake of COVID-19
Economic Insights , Volume 6 , Issue 4 , Pages 2-8

Journal Article
Foreclosure Prevention Efforts Continue in Texas Metro Areas
Gunter, Julie (2011)
Although the level of seriously delinquent mortgages in Texas is slightly improved from one year ago (see the accompanying article), such mortgages are still at very high levels in the metro areas. For example, over 30,000 households are at least 90 days delinquent on their mortgage in the four-county Dallas-Fort Worth metro area as of December 2010.
e-Perspectives , Volume 11 , Issue 2

Discussion Paper
A Better Measure of First-Time Homebuyers
Lee, Donghoon; Tracy, Joseph (2019-04-08)
Much of the concern about affordable homeownership has focused on first-time buyers. These buyers, who are often making the transition from renting to owning, can find it difficult to save to meet down-payment requirements; this is particularly true in those areas where rent takes up a significant portion of a household's monthly income. In contrast to first-time buyers, repeat buyers can typically rely on the equity in their current house to help fund the down payment on a trade-up purchase; they also have an easier time qualifying for a new mortgage if they've successfully made payments on ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190408

Working Paper
Can We Take the “Stress” Out of Stress Testing? Applications of Generalized Structural Equation Modeling to Consumer Finance
Canals-Cerda, Jose J. (2021-01-29)
Financial firms, and banks in particular, rely heavily on complex suites of interrelated statistical models in their risk management and business reporting infrastructures. Statistical model infrastructures are often developed using a piecemeal approach to model building, in which different components are developed and validated separately. This type of modeling framework has significant limitations at each stage of the model management life cycle, from development and documentation to validation, production, and redevelopment. We propose an empirical framework, spurred by recent developments ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-01

Discussion Paper
Mortgage Rates Decline and (Prime) Households Take Advantage
Lee, Donghoon; Scally, Joelle; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2021-02-17)
Today, the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data reported that household debt balances increased by $206 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020, marking a $414 billion increase since the end of 2019. But the COVID pandemic and ensuing recession have marked an end to the dynamics in household borrowing that have characterized the expansion since the Great Recession, which included robust growth in auto and student loans, while mortgage and credit card balances grew more slowly. As the pandemic took hold, these dynamics were altered. One shift in 2020 was a larger bump up in mortgage ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210217b

Working Paper
Crises in the Housing Market: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Lessons
Garriga, Carlos; Hedlund, Aaron (2019-04-18)
The global financial crisis of the past decade has shaken the research and policy worlds out of their belief that housing markets are mostly benign and immaterial for understanding economic cycles. Instead, a growing consensus recognizes the central role that housing plays in shaping economic activity, particularly during large boom and bust episodes. This article discusses the latest research regarding the causes, consequences, and policy implications of housing crises with a broad focus that includes empirical and structural analysis, insights from the 2000's experience in the United ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-33

Working Paper
How the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchases (LSAPs) Influence Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Yields and U.S. Mortgage Rates
Passmore, Wayne; Hancock, Diana (2014-02-06)
We conduct an empirical analysis of the Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) on MBS yields and mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve's accumulation of MBS and Treasury securities lowered MBS yields and mortgage rates by more than what would have been suggested by changes in market expectations alone, suggesting that portfolio rebalancing effects of LSAPs are an important consideration for monetary policy transmission. Our estimates also suggest that the Federal Reserve must hold a substantial market share of agency MBS or of Treasury securities to significantly lower MBS yields ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-12

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