Relieving Financial Distress Increases Voter Turnout: Evidence from the Mortgage Market

Liu, Haoyang; McCartney, W. Ben; Ramcharan, Rodney; Zhang, Calvin; Zhang, Xiaohan

doi:10.24149/wp2517

Working Paper

Relieving Financial Distress Increases Voter Turnout: Evidence from the Mortgage Market

Abstract: Borrowers who refinanced mortgages between 2009 and 2012, a period marked by mortgage distress and dislocated housing markets, but also falling interest rates, were more likely to vote in the 2012 general election than similar borrowers who did not refinance. We exploit an eligibility cutoff in the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) to identify a causal relationship. Consistent with the resource model of voting, the effect of refinancing on turnout is strongest among borrowers with lower incomes and larger debt service reductions. Our findings shed new light on an important channel linking economic conditions and political outcomes.

JEL Classification: D12; D14; D72; E43; H31; R20;

https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2517