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Journal Article
Work, Leisure, and Family: From the Silent Generation to Millennials
Gayle, George-Levi; Odio-Zúñiga, Mariana; Ramakrishnan, Prasanthi (2021-10-18)
This article analyzes the changes in family structure, fertility behavior, and the division of labor within the household from the Silent generation (cohort born in 1940-49) to the Millennial generation (cohort born in 1980-89). Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this article documents the main trends and life-cycle profiles for each generation. The main findings are that (i) the wage-age profile has been shifting down over generations, especially for Millennial men; (ii) the returns to a four-year college degree or higher for men have increased for all generations; (iii) ...
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 4 , Pages 385-424

Discussion Paper
How Do Firms Respond to Hiring Difficulties?
Terry, Ellyn; de Zeeuw, Mels (2018-03-01)
Using data from the Federal Reserve Banks' 2017 Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS), this paper investigates the various ways in which different types of firms with less than 500 employees experience and address hiring difficulties, including when they decide to increase compensation.The authors find significant variation in hiring difficulties by type of firm, and a firm's response appears to depend on the nature of the problem. The most common response is to increase compensation, with firms that experience competition from other employers being the most likely to do so. Other common ...
FRB Atlanta Community and Economic Development Discussion Paper , Paper 2018-01

Speech
Bullard Speaks with Yahoo Finance about Inflation, Labor Markets
Bullard, James B. (2021-05-24)
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard discussed his expectations for inflation 2021 and 2022. He also discussed the labor market, wages, cryptocurrencies and other topics during an appearance on Yahoo Finance.
Speech

Firms’ Wage-Setting Power: A New Take on Monopsony in the Labor Market
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina (2025-07-17)
Why do some firms seem to pay workers less than what their labor is worth? An economic model gives insights into how wage-setting power arises in modern labor markets.
On the Economy

Newsletter
What Does Labor Market Tightness Tell Us About the End of an Expansion?
Brave, Scott A.; Kelley, David (2018)
We use a model based on the historical relationships between unemployment, inflation, and recessions, along with the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC),1 to examine the medium-term implications of current and projected unemployment rates for the U.S. economy. Our model predicts a low probability of a recession in the next two to three years based on SEP forecasts for additional labor market tightening over this horizon.
Chicago Fed Letter

Working Paper
The Dynamics of the Smoking Wage Penalty
Hotchkiss, Julie L.; Darden, Michael; Pitts, M. Melinda (2020-07-28)
Cigarette smokers earn significantly less than nonsmokers, but the magnitude of the smoking wage gap and the pathways by which it originates are unclear. Proposed mechanisms often focus on spot differences in employee productivity or employer preferences, neglecting the dynamic nature of human capital development and addiction. In this paper, we formulate a dynamic model of young workers as they transition from schooling to the labor market, a period in which the lifetime trajectory of wages is being developed. We estimate the model with data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-11

Journal Article
First-Time Homeownership Became Less Affordable Across Most of the United States in Recent Years
Farha, Chase; McCoy, John; Rodziewicz, David (2025-01-15)
New homeownership became less affordable across much of the United States over the last five years. Swiftly rising house prices and higher borrowing costs have not been fully offset by wage gains, making homeownership less affordable in both metropolitan and rural areas. Although new homeownership is less affordable than in years past, slower housing price gains and steadily rising wages may offer some reprieve for housing affordability in the coming year.
Economic Bulletin

Working Paper
How Cyclical Is the User Cost of Labor?
Kudlyak, Marianna (2024-03-31)
In employment relationships, a wage is an installment payment on an implicit long-term agreement between a worker and a firm. The price of labor that impacts firm’s hiring decisions, instead, reflects the hiring wage as well as the impact of economic conditions at the time of hiring on future wages. Measured by the labor’s user cost, the price of labor is substantially more pro-cyclical than the new-hire wage or the average wage. The strong procyclicality of the price of labor calls for other forces for cyclical labor demand to explain employment fluctuations.
Working Paper Series , Paper 2024-10

Working Paper
Why Do Americans No Longer Work So Much More Than Non-Americans?
Birinci, Serdar; Karabarbounis, Loukas; See, Kurt (2026-09-21)
In the 1990s, Americans used to work much more than non-Americans. Nowadays, about half of the gap in hours worked has disappeared. To evaluate the convergence of working hours, we develop a tractable model of labor supply enriched with multiple sources of heterogeneity across individuals, an extensive margin of participation, multi-member households, and an elaborate system of taxes and benefits upon non-employment. Using detailed measurements from micro-level and aggregate datasets, we identify model parameters and sources of heterogeneity across individuals for various countries. We run a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2026-002

Discussion Paper
Firms' Employment and Wage Outlook Going Into 2025
Mengedoth, Joseph; Kosakow, Jason (2024-12-20)
Every November, the Richmond Fed asks businesses a series of questions about their expectations for hiring, wage adjustments, and other employment-related topics. This year, in addition to the usual set of questions, we asked firms if they have reduced the size of their workforce over the past three months and what workforce decisions they would make if business conditions deteriorated in the next six months.Consistent with past results, most responding businesses expect to maintain or increase employee headcount over the next 12 months. However, there were some shifts in responses compared ...
Regional Matters

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