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Briefing
How Well Do Firms Retain Customers After Price Increases?
Gholami, Samira; Trachter, Nicholas (2023-05)
Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and the Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance developed a model that studies the optimal price setting of a firm. Using microdata from the U.S. retail industry, we document that customer turnover responds to price changes. Therefore, to keep customers, firms do not completely pass productivity shocks through to their prices. The price pass-through is heterogeneous across firms, with the most productive firms passing through more.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 23 , Issue 16

Briefing
Will the Pandemic Surge in Employer Business Formation Last?
Yeh, Chen (2025-01)
Business applications — or applications for employer identification numbers (EINs) — surged at the beginning of the pandemic, more than doubling prepandemic levels of the early 2000s. While not every entrepreneur filing for an EIN is guaranteed to hire workers, this surge in business applications was followed by a strong increase in employer startups more than a year later, as establishment openings rose 45 percent. Interestingly, this rise in employer startups has remained elevated compared to prepandemic levels, although recent evidence indicates that this increase has been wearing ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 25 , Issue 1

Journal Article
The Highs and Lows of Productivity Growth
Matthes, Christian; Seitelman, Lily; Foerster, Andrew (2020-08-03)
Productivity growth shows evidence of switching between long periods of high and low average growth. Estimates suggest that the United States has been in the low-growth regime since 2004. Assuming this low growth continues, productivity growth in the year 2025 would be 0.6%. By dropping this assumption and allowing for a switch to consistent higher growth, an alternative estimate forecasts that the distribution of possible productivity growth across quarters could average about 1.1% in 2025.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 21 , Pages 5

Working Paper
Can Pandemic-Induced Job Uncertainty Stimulate Automation?
Liu, Zheng; Leduc, Sylvain (2020-05-07)
The COVID-19 pandemic has raised concerns about the future of work. The pandemic may become recurrent, necessitating repeated adoptions of social distancing measures (voluntary or mandatory), creating substantial uncertainty about worker productivity. But robots are not susceptible to the virus. Thus, pandemic-induced job uncertainty may boost the incentive for automation. However, elevated uncertainty also reduces aggregate demand and reduces the value of new investment in automation. We assess the importance of automation in driving business cycle dynamics following an increase in job ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-19

Working Paper
Measuring the “Free” Digital Economy Within the GDP and Productivity Accounts
Soloveichik, Rachel; Nakamura, Leonard I.; Samuels, Jon (2017-10-23)
We develop an experimental methodology that values ?free? digital content through the lens of a production account and is consistent with the framework of the national accounts. We build upon the work in Nakamura, et al. (2016) by combining marketing- and advertising-supported content and find that the impact of ?free? digital content on U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) has accelerated in recent years, particularly since 2005. However, the explosion in ?free? digital content is partially offset by a decrease in ?free? print content like newspapers. Including these, real GDP growth would grow ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-37

Report
Human capital and economic activity in urban America
Gabe, Todd M.; Abel, Jaison R. (2008-07-01)
We examine the relationship between human capital and economic activity in U.S. metropolitan areas, extending the literature in two ways. First, we utilize new data on metropolitan area GDP to measure economic activity. Results show that a one-percentage-point increase in the proportion of residents with a college degree is associated with about a 2 percent increase in metropolitan area GDP per capita. Second, we develop measures of human capital that reflect the types of knowledge within U.S. metropolitan areas. Regional knowledge stocks related to the provision of producer services and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 332

Working Paper
From Population Growth to TFP Growth
Sanchez, Juan M.; Inokuma, Hiroshi (2023-03-27)
Using a firm-dynamics model that has been extended to include endogenous growth, we examine how population growth influences total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The most important theoretical result is that the shape of a business's productivity life-cycle profile determines the direction of the impact of population growth on TFP growth. Following that, the model is calibrated for Japan and the United States. The main finding of examining balanced growth paths (BGPs) with various rates of population growth is that the effect on TFP growth is sizable. Japan's expected decline in population ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-006

Working Paper
Gains from Offshoring? Evidence from U.S. Microdata
Monarch, Ryan; Park, Jooyoun; Sivadasan, Jagadeesh (2014-11-11)
We construct a new linked data set with over one thousand offshoring events by matching Trade Adjustment Assistance program petition data to confidential data on U.S. firm operations. We exploit these data to assess how offshoring affects domestic firm-level aggregate employment, output, wages and productivity. Consistent with heterogenous firm models where offshoring involves a fixed cost, we find that the average offshoring firm is larger and more productive than the average non-offshorer. After initiating offshoring, firms experience large declines in employment (46.2 per cent), output ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1124

Working Paper
From Population Growth to TFP Growth
Sanchez, Juan M.; Inokuma, Hiroshi (2023-03-27)
Using a firm-dynamics model that has been extended to include endogenous growth, we examine how population growth influences total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The most important theoretical result is that the growth rate of surviving old businesses is a "sufficient statistic" to determine the direction and the magnitude of the impact of population growth on TFP growth. Following that, the model is calibrated for Japan and the United States. The main finding of examining balanced growth paths (BGPs) with various rates of population growth is that the effect on TFP growth is sizable. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-006

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