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Advances in AI will boost productivity, living standards over time
Wynne, Mark A.; Derr, Lillian (2025-06-24)
Artificial intelligence offers the potential to improve people’s living standards. Such advances can be approximated by changes in GDP per capita over time. Using that common measure, AI could enhance longstanding productivity gains or, alternatively, drastically alter the economy in relatively short order.
Dallas Fed Economics

International comparisons show AI effect on productivity
Davis, J. Scott (2026-07-07)
Because AI use varies across countries, we can draw on international data to investigate the relationship between AI exposure and productivity growth at the sector level. The positive relationship in the U.S. fits a pattern visible among countries and appears related to high AI use.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Firm Data on AI
Meyer, Brent; Mizen, Paul; Bloom, Nicholas; Barrero, Jose Maria; Wang, Ben; Yotzov, Ivan; Thwaites, Gregory; Bunn, Philip; Navarrete, Michael; Jalca, Aaron; Davis, Steven J.; Smietanka, Pawel; Foster, Kevin (2026-03-24)
We present the first representative international data on firm-level AI use. We survey almost 6,000 CFOs, CEOs, and executives from stratified firm samples across the US, UK, Germany, and Australia. We find four key facts. First, around 70 percent of firms actively use AI, particularly younger, more productive firms. Second, while over two-thirds of top executives regularly use AI, their average use is only 1.5 hours a week, with one quarter reporting no AI use. Third, firms report little impact of AI over the last three years, with more than 80 percent of firms reporting no impact on either ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2026-3

Working Paper
Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, and the Workforce: Evidence from Corporate Executives
Meyer, Brent; Waddell, Sonya Ravindranath; Weitz, Daniel J.; Edwards, Zach; Baslandze, Salomé; McClure, Ty; Graham, John; Sparks, Michael (2026-03-25)
We use novel data from a survey of nearly 750 corporate executives to study the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) on productivity and the workforce. We document substantial heterogeneity in AI adoption across firms, with more than half having already invested, though many smaller firms are only beginning to do so. Labor productivity gains are positive, vary across sectors, and are expected to strengthen in 2026, with the largest effects concentrated in high-skill services and finance. These gains are not primarily driven by firms' capital deepening but instead reflect increases in ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2026-04

Working Paper
Patents to Products: Product Innovation and Firm Dynamics
Argente, David; Moreira, Sara; Hanley, Douglas; Baslandze, Salomé (2020-04-17)
We study the relationship between patents and actual product innovation in the market, and how this relationship varies with firms’ market share. We use textual analysis to create a new data set that links patents to products of firms in the consumer goods sector. We find that patent filings are positively associated with subsequent product innovation by firms, but at least half of product innovation and growth comes from firms that never patent. We also find that market leaders use patents differently from followers. Market leaders have lower product innovation rates, though they rely on ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-4

Working Paper
Connecting to Power: Political Connections, Innovation, and Firm Dynamics
Lotti, Francesca; Baslandze, Salomé; Akcigit, Ufuk (2020-04-17)
How do political connections affect firm dynamics, innovation, and creative destruction? To answer this question, we build a firm dynamics model, where we allow firms to invest in innovation and/or political connection to advance their productivity and to overcome certain market frictions. Our model generates a number of theoretical testable predictions and highlights a new interaction between static gains and dynamic losses from rent-seeking in aggregate productivity. We test the predictions of our model using a brand-new dataset on Italian firms and their workers. Our dataset spans the ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-5

Report
The equilibrium real policy rate through the lens of standard growth models
Sichel, Daniel E.; Wang, J. Christina (2017-11-17)
The long-run equilibrium real policy rate is a key concept in monetary economics and an important input into monetary policy decision-making. It has gained particular prominence lately as the Federal Reserve continues to normalize monetary policy. In this study, we assess the evolution, current level, and prospective values of this equilibrium rate within the framework of standard growth models. Our analysis considers as a baseline the single-sector Solow model, but it places more emphasis on the multi-sector neoclassical growth model, which better fits the data over the past three decades. ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 17-6

Report
The Great Recession, entrepreneurship, and productivity performance
Diez, Federico J. (2014-11-01)
In recent years, it is argued, the level of entrepreneurial activity in the United States has declined, causing concern because of its potential macroeconomic implications. In particular, it is feared that a lower rate of firm creation may be associated with lower productivity growth and, hence, lower economic growth in the coming years. This paper studies the issue, focusing on the dynamics of entrepreneurship and productivity around the time of the Great Recession. The author looks first at the recent evolution of alternative measures of entrepreneurship and of productivity, and then ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 14-8

Report
Productivity Improvements and Markup Normalization Can Support Further Wage Gains without Inflationary Pressures
Garga, Vaishali; Olivei, Giovanni P.; Wang, J. Christina (2024-06-27)
Wage inflation remains higher than it was before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, raising concerns that it could hinder progress toward a return of price inflation to the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. The impact of wage inflation on price inflation, however, cannot be considered independently of the behavior of productivity and firms’ markups. In that context, there are scenarios in which wage inflation could stay above trend for a few more quarters without contributing to higher price inflation.
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 2024-5

Speech
Assessing the Balance of Risks in the Economy
Collins, Susan M. (2025-10-14)
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President & CEO Susan M. Collins shared perspectives on the national economy, outlook, and monetary policy during an event hosted by the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce entitled “Perspectives on the Economy: A Conversation with the Boston Fed President”. President Collins also joined Kimberly Sherman Stamler, president of Related Beal and a member of the Boston Fed’s board of directors, for a Q&A discussion.
Speech

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