Productivity During and Since the Pandemic

Fernald, John G.; Li, Huiyu; Meisenbacher, Brigid C.; Yalcin, Aren S.

Journal Article

Productivity During and Since the Pandemic

Abstract: U.S. labor productivity initially surged in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the massive economic upheaval. As the economy recovered, the level of productivity retreated to its slow pre-pandemic trend. As of mid-2024, it remained close to but just above that trend. The surge and retreat in productivity follows the pre-pandemic cyclical relationship in which U.S. productivity rises temporarily in recessions. This example highlights the need to look through temporary cyclical effects when trying to infer longer-run trends.