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Working Paper
Effects of Wildfire Destruction on Migration, Consumer Credit, and Financial Distress
McConnell, Kathryn; Fussell, Elizabeth; DeWaard, Jack; Whitaker, Stephan; Curtis, Katherine; Price, Kobie; St. Denis, Lise; Balch, Jennifer (2021-12-27)
The scale of wildfire destruction has grown exponentially in recent years, destroying nearly 25,000 buildings in the United States during 2018 alone. However, there is still limited research exploring how wildfires affect migration patterns and household finances. In this study, we evaluate the effects of wildfire destruction on in-migration and out-migration probability at the Census tract level in the United States from 1999 to 2018. We then shift to the individual level and examine changes in homeownership, consumer credit usage, and financial distress among people whose neighborhood ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-29

Journal Article
Why Immigration Is an Urban Phenomenon
Monras, Joan (2023-07-03)
Immigration is fundamentally an urban phenomenon. Both in the United States and elsewhere, immigrants settle primarily in cities—especially high-wage, high cost-of-living cities. The most likely reason is that immigrants often send a significant share of their income back to their origin country. As a result, they value a city’s high wages and are less discouraged by the high living costs than native-born workers. Migration policies can reinforce this urban concentration pattern.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 16 , Pages 5

Report
Geographical reallocation and unemployment during the Great Recession: the role of the housing bust
Rhee, Serena; Karahan, Fatih (2013)
This paper quantitatively evaluates the hypothesis that the housing bust in 2007 decreased geographical reallocation and increased the dispersion and level of unemployment during the Great Recession. We construct an equilibrium model of multiple locations with frictional housing and labor markets. When house prices fall, the amount of home equity declines, making it harder for homeowners to afford the down payment on a new house after moving. Consequently, the decline in house prices reduces migration and causes unemployment to rise differently in different locations. The model accounts for ...
Staff Reports , Paper 605

Journal Article
The causes and consequences of Puerto Rico's declining population
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard (2014)
Puerto Rico?s population has been falling for nearly a decade, and the pace of decline has accelerated in recent years. Although a slowdown in the island?s birthrate has contributed to this decline, a surge in the out-migration of its citizens has been a more important factor. The exodus?which includes a large share of younger people?has hastened population aging, but it has not necessarily led to a ?brain drain.? To counter its population loss, Puerto Rico must not only adopt measures to shore up its economy and expand job opportunities, but also enact fiscal reforms and improve the island?s ...
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 20

Discussion Paper
How Has Germany's Economy Been Affected by the Recent Surge in Immigration?
Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2019-05-20)
Germany emerged as a leading destination for immigration around 2011, as the country's labor market improved while unemployment climbed elsewhere in the European Union. A second wave began in 2015, with refugees from the Middle East adding to already heavy inflows from Eastern Europe. The demographic consequences of the surge in immigration include a renewed rise in Germany's population and the stabilization of the country's median age. The macroeconomic consequences are hard to measure but look promising, since per capita income growth has held up and unemployment has declined. Data on ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190520

Journal Article
A Welcome for the Talented
Steelman, Aaron (2018-10)
Book Review of "The Gift of Global Talent: How Migration Shapes Business, Economy & Society" By William R. Kerr, Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 2019, 237 Pages
Econ Focus , Issue 4Q , Pages 27-27

Working Paper
Interregional Migration and Housing Vacancy: Theory and Empirics
Cohen, Jeffrey P.; Crews, Jonas C.; Coughlin, Cletus C. (2020-10-16)
We examine homeowner vacancy rate interdependencies over time and space through the channel of migration. Our theoretical analysis extends the Wheaton (1990) search and matching model for housing by incorporating interregional spillovers due to some households’ desires to migrate between regions and by allowing for regime-switching behavior. Our empirical analysis of vacancy rates for the entire U.S. and for Census regions provides visual evidence for the possibility of regime-switching behavior. We explicitly test our model by estimating basic Vector Autoregression (VAR) and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-007

Discussion Paper
Urban Marylanders Are Migrating to More Affordable and Smaller Metro Areas
Scavette, Adam; Waters, Keith (2024-03-07)
With its unemployment rate reaching 1.9 percent in December 2023, Maryland has the tightest labor market in the country, which poses an ongoing hiring challenge for the state's employers. A key contributor to the tightness is the state's slow post-pandemic labor force recovery, especially in the state's inner-ring suburbs of the District of Columbia. While some of the state's former workers and job seekers have dropped out of the labor force but have remained residents, others have left the state altogether, according to recent statistics that placed Maryland in the top 5 states by net ...
Regional Matters

Working Paper
Charting the Course: How Does Information about Sea Level Rise Affect the Willingness to Migrate?
Bakkensen, Laura; Nquyen, Quynh; Phan, Toan; Shuler, Paul (2023-09-14)
An important yet less studied factor in determining the extent of adaptation to climate change is information: are people adequately informed about their vulnerability to future climate-related risks, and does their willingness to adapt depend on this knowledge? Focusing on how communication about projected sea level rise (SLR) affects the willingness to migrate, we implemented a large randomized control survey experiment with a nationally representative sample of more than 7,000 respondents across all provinces in Vietnam. We randomly assign respondents to different information treatments. ...
Working Paper , Paper 23-09

Working Paper
Local Ties in Spatial Equilibrium
Zabek, Mike (2019-11-18)
If someone lives in an economically depressed place, they were probably born there. The presence of people with local ties - a preference to live in their birthplace - leads to smaller migration responses. Smaller migration responses to wage declines lead to lower real incomes and make real incomes more sensitive to subsequent demand shocks, a form of hysteresis. Local ties can persist for generations. Place-based policies, like tax subsidies, targeting depressed places cause smaller distortions since few people want to move to depressed places. Place-based policies targeting productive ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-080

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