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Working Paper
Worker flows and job flows: a quantitative investigation
This paper studies quantitative properties of a multiple-worker firm search/matching model and investigates how worker transition rates and job flow rates are interrelated. We show that allowing for job-to-job transitions in the model is essential to simultaneously account for the cyclical features of worker transition rates and job flow rates. Important to this result are the distinctions between the job creation rate and the hiring rate and between the job destruction rate and the layoff rate. In the model without job-to-job transitions, these distinctions essentially disappear, thus making ...
Report
Labor Market Dynamics and Development
We build a dataset of harmonized rotating panel labor force surveys covering 42 countries across a wide range of development and document three new empirical findings on labor market dynamics. First, labor market flows (job-finding rates, employment-exit rates, and job-to-job transition rates) are two to three times higher in the poorest as compared with the richest countries. Second, employment hazards in poorer countries decline more sharply with tenure; much of their high turnover can be attributed to high separation rates among workers with low tenure. Third, wage-tenure profiles are much ...
Newsletter
Blending Traditional and Alternative Labor Market Data with CHURN
In this article, we present a new real-time model called CHURN—short for Chicago Fed Unemployment Rate Nowcast. CHURN provides a weekly tracking estimate for the civilian unemployment rate (UR) produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). To do so, CHURN blends monthly statistics on job flows (i.e., job-finding and job-separation rates) from the BLS and other traditional labor market indicators with alternative high-frequency indicators from private sector sources.