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Blending Traditional and Alternative Labor Market Data with CHURN
Abstract: In this article, we present a new real-time model called CHURN—short for Chicago Fed Unemployment Rate Nowcast. CHURN provides a weekly tracking estimate for the civilian unemployment rate (UR) produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). To do so, CHURN blends monthly statistics on job flows (i.e., job-finding and job-separation rates) from the BLS and other traditional labor market indicators with alternative high-frequency indicators from private sector sources.
JEL Classification: J64; C53; C1;
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Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Part of Series: Chicago Fed Letter
Publication Date: 2025-06
Volume: 506