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Conference Paper
Seismic shifts: the economic impact of demographic change: an overview
Triest, Robert K.; Little, Jane Sneddon (2001)
Most economic developments are hard to predict. Considerable uncertainty surrounds forecasts for output growth, inflation, and unemployment a year from now, for instance. But demographic developments are different in this respect. Although demographic surprises abound, the major trends build slowly, and the broad contours of medium-term outcomes become discernible well in advance.
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 46

Journal Article
The effects of recessions across demographic groups
Wall, Howard J.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2010-01)
The burdens of a recession are not spread evenly across demographic groups. As the public and media noticed, from the start of the current recession in December 2007 through June 2009 men accounted for more than three-quarters of net job losses. Other differences have garnered less attention but are just as interesting. During the same period, the employment of single people fell at more than twice the rate that it did for married people and the decline for black workers was one and a half times that for white workers. To provide a more complete understanding of the effect of recessions, this ...
Review , Volume 92 , Issue Jan

Conference Paper
The fiscal impact of population change: discussion
Atkinson, Paul (2001)
Ronald Lee and Ryan Edwards have provided a comprehensive analysis of the prospective budgetary implications of the aging of the U. S. population over the period to 2100. They cover a lot of ground but two major points stand out: Their analysis suggests that the budget pressures that aging will imply will be intense and very possibly greater than many other analyses would suggest; and the most important pressure is less likely to come from Social Security payments of old-age pensions than from demand for medical care. Their most important policy message relates to the need for policymakers ...
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 46

Report
Productivity and the density of human capital
Abel, Jaison R.; Gabe, Todd M.; Dey, Ishita (2010)
We estimate a model of urban productivity in which the agglomeration effect of density is enhanced by a metropolitan area's stock of human capital. Estimation accounts for potential biases due to the endogeneity of density and industrial composition effects. Using new information on output per worker for U.S. metropolitan areas along with a measure of density that accounts for the spatial distribution of population, we find that a doubling of density increases productivity by 2 to 4 percent. Consistent with theories of learning and knowledge spillovers in cities, we demonstrate that the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 440

Working Paper
Demographics and medical care spending: standard and non-standard effects
Sheiner, Louise; Cutler, David M. (1999)
In this paper, we examine the effects of likely demographic changes on medical spending for the elderly. Standard forecasts highlight the potential for greater life expectancy to increase costs: medical costs generally increase with age, and greater life expectancy means that more of the elderly will be in the older age groups. Two factors work in the other direction, however. First, increases in life expectancy mean that a smaller share of the elderly will be in the last year of life, when medical costs generally are very high. Furthermore, more of the elderly will be dying at older ages, ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1999-20

Working Paper
The Baby Boomers and the Productivity Slowdown
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2018-12-01)
The entry of baby boomers into the labor market in the 1970s slowed growth for physical and human capital per worker because young workers have little of both. Thus, the baby boom could have contributed to the 1970s productivity slowdown. I build and calibrate a model a la Huggett et al. (2011) with exogenous population and TFP to evaluate this theory. The baby boom accounts for 75% of the slowdown in the period 1964-69, 25% in 1970-74 and 2% in 1975-79. The retiring of baby boomers may cause a 2.8pp decline in productivity growth between 2020 and 2040, ceteris paribus.
Working Papers , Paper 2018-37

Speech
The national and regional economic outlook
Dudley, William (2011)
Remarks before the Bronx Chamber of Commerce at the New York Botanical Garden, Bronx, New York.
Speech , Paper 68

Journal Article
Noteworthy: Demographics, natural gas, electric power
Orrenius, Pia M. (2011-04)
The regional economic outlook is quite positive. Broad-based hiring in every sector from energy to construction to services reflects the confidence employers have that the region is poised for sustained expansion
Southwest Economy , Issue Q2 , Pages 14

Conference Paper
World population in 2050: assessing the projections
Cohen, Joel E. (2001)
This paper will review some population projections for the United States, the world, and selected major regions. The total population size, the youth dependency ratio, the elderly dependency ratio, and the total dependency ratio will receive most attention. The underlying assumptions regarding fertility, mortality, and migration will be reviewed. Projections from different sources will be compared where possible.
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 46

Journal Article
New evidence on labor market dynamics over the business cycle
Mazumder, Bhashkar (2007-01)
Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau?s Survey of Income and Program Participation, the author investigates how much of the cyclicality in unemployment is due to variation in the job finding rate versus the job separation rate. In addition, the article explores how employment dynamics have differed by demographic subgroups.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 31 , Issue Q I , Pages 36-46

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