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Working Paper
Time-varying Persistence of House Price Growth: The Role of Expectations and Credit Supply
Chudik, Alexander; Smallwood, Aaron; Choi, Chi-Young (2024-05-15)
High persistence is a prominent feature of price movements in U.S. housing markets, i.e., house prices grow faster this period if they grew faster last period. This paper provides two additional new insights to the literature on U.S. house price movements. First, there exists a significant time variation in the persistence of house price growth, both at the national and city level. Second, there is considerable heterogeneity in the time-varying persistence across different regions, particularly in areas that were historically less persistent, such as the capital-poor regions in the Midwest ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 426

Working Paper
The Geography of Business Dynamism and Skill-Biased Technical Change
Rubinton, Hannah (2024-09-13)
This paper shows that the growing disparities between big and small cities in the U.S. since 1980 can be explained by firms endogenously responding to a skill-biased technology shock. With the introduction of a new skill-biased technology that is high fixed cost but low marginal cost, firms endogenously adopt more in big cities, cities that offer abundant amenities for high-skilled workers, and cities that are more productive in using high-skilled labor. In cities with more adoption, small and unproductive firms are more likely to exit the market, increasing the equilibrium rate of turnover ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-020

Working Paper
The supply and demand of skilled workers in cities and the role of industry composition
Brinkman, Jeffrey (2014-10-20)
The share of high-skilled workers in U.S. cities is positively correlated with city size, and this correlation strengthened between 1980 and 2010. Furthermore, during the same time period, the U.S. economy experienced a significant structural transformation with regard to industrial composition, most notably in the decline of manufacturing and the rise of high-skilled service industries. To decompose and investigate these trends, this paper develops and estimates a spatial equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms and workers that allows for both industry-specific and skill-specific ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-32

Working Paper
The City Paradox: Skilled Services and Remote Work
Althoff, Lukas; Ganapati, Sharat; Walsh, Conor; Eckert, Fabian (2020-12-03)
Large cities in the US are the most expensive places to live. Paradoxically, this cost is paid disproportionately by workers who could work remotely, and live anywhere. The greater potential for remote work in large cities is mostly accounted for by their specialization in skill- and information-intensive service industries. We highlight that this specialization makes these cities vulnerable to remote work shocks. When high-skill workers begin to work from home or leave the city altogether, they withdraw spending from local consumer service industries that rely heavily on their demand. As a ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 43

Working Paper
Floating Population: Migration With(Out) Family and the Spatial Distribution of Economic Activity
Imbert, Clément; Monras, Joan; Seror, Marlon; Zylberberg, Yanos (2023-08-30)
This paper argues that migrants’ decision to bring their dependent family members shapes their consumption behavior, their choice of destination, and their sensitivity to migration barriers. We document that in China: (i) rural migrants disproportionately move to expensive cities; (ii) in these cities they live without their family and in poorer housing conditions; and (iii) they remit more, especially when living without their family. We then develop a quantitative general equilibrium spatial model in which migrant households choose whether, how (with or without their family), and where to ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2023-26

Working Paper
Productivity, congested commuting, and metro size
Rappaport, Jordan (2016-01-04)
The monocentric city model is generalized to a fully structural form with leisure in utility, congested commuting, and the equalizing of utility and perimeter land price across metros. Exogenous and agglomerative differences in total factor productivity (TFP) drive differences in metro population, radius, land use, commute time, and home prices. Quantitative results approximate observed correspondences among these outcomes across U.S. metros. Traffic congestion proves the critical force constraining population. Self-driving cars significantly increase the sensitivity of metro population to ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 16-3

Working Paper
The Geography of Wealth: Shocks, Mobility and Precautionary Savings
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Greaney, Brian (2026-08-17)
The spatial distribution of wealth in the United States is very heterogeneous. We study the spatial distribution of wealth in a country and how it is shaped by regional earning characteristics and mobility frictions. For this, we develop a tractable model of consumption, savings and location choice with many regions, incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents facing persistent and transitory income shocks. Our theory extends a workhorse macroeconomic model of consumption and savings under uncertainty to an economy with multiple labor markets and costly mobility. Despite complex spatial and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2627

Working Paper
Saving the American Dream? Education Policies in Spatial General Equilibrium
Kleineberg, Tatjana; Eckert, Fabian (2021-03-22)
Children's education and economic opportunities differ substantially across US neighborhoods. This paper develops and estimates a spatial equilibrium model that links children's education outcomes to their childhood location. Two endogenous factors determine education choices in each location: local education quality and local labor market access. We estimate the model with US county-level data and study the effects of a school funding equalization on education outcomes and social mobility. The reform's direct effects improve education outcomes among children from low-skill families. However, ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 47

Report
Geographical reallocation and unemployment during the Great Recession: the role of the housing bust
Rhee, Serena; Karahan, Fatih (2013)
This paper quantitatively evaluates the hypothesis that the housing bust in 2007 decreased geographical reallocation and increased the dispersion and level of unemployment during the Great Recession. We construct an equilibrium model of multiple locations with frictional housing and labor markets. When house prices fall, the amount of home equity declines, making it harder for homeowners to afford the down payment on a new house after moving. Consequently, the decline in house prices reduces migration and causes unemployment to rise differently in different locations. The model accounts for ...
Staff Reports , Paper 605

Working Paper
Micro- and Macroeconomic Impacts of a Place-Based Industrial Policy
Atalay, Enghin; Hortacsu, Ali; Runyun, Mustafa; Syverson, Chad; Ulu, Mehmet Faith (2023-06-13)
We investigate the impact of a set of place-based subsidies introduced in Turkey in 2012. Using firm-level balance-sheet data along with data on the domestic production network, we first assess the policy’s direct and indirect impacts. We find an increase in economic activity in industry-province pairs that were the focus of the subsidy program, and positive spillovers to the suppliers and customers of subsidized firms. With the aid of a dynamic multi-region, multi-industry general equilibrium model, we then assess the program’s impacts. Based on the calibrated model, we find that, in the ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-12

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