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Report
Shifts in the Beveridge curve
Sahin, Aysegul; Diamond, Peter A. (2014-08-01)
This note puts the current shift in the Beveridge curve into context by examining the behavior of the curve since 1950. Outward shifts in the Beveridge curve have been common occurrences during U.S. recoveries. By itself, the presence of a shift has not been a good predictor of whether the unemployment rate at the end of the expansion following a shift was higher or lower than that in the preceding expansion.
Staff Reports , Paper 687

Newsletter
What Does Everything Besides the Unemployment Rate Tell Us About Labor Market Tightness?
Bognar, Levi; Faberman, R. Jason; Kepner, Elizabeth; LaGuardia, Emma (2023-12)
Between March 2022 and June 2023, the unemployment rate, the most commonly used gauge of labor market tightness, remained in a narrow range between 3.4% and 3.7%. Yet, over this period, nominal wage growth increased to unusually high levels and then moderated, though it remains at a historically high rate. The disparity between a relatively constant unemployment rate and large movements in nominal wage growth has led to a divide in public discourse, with some seeing low unemployment and strong wage growth as a sufficient sign of the strength of the labor market and others concerned that the ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Volume no 491 , Pages 7

Working Paper
Spatial Wage Gaps in Frictional Labor Markets
Porzio, Tommaso; Heise, Sebastian (2019-12-23)
We develop a job ladder model with labor reallocation across firms and regions, and estimate it on matched employer-employee data to study the large and persistent real wage gap between East and West Germany. We find that the wage gap is mostly due to firms paying higher wages per efficiency unit in West Germany and quantify a rich set of frictions preventing worker reallocation across space and across firms. We find that three spatial barriers impede East Germans’ ability to migrate West: migration costs, a preference to live in the East, and fewer job opportunities received from the West. ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 29

Working Paper
Job Search, Job Amenities, and the Gender Pay Gap
Faberman, R. Jason; Mueller, Andreas I.; Sahin, Aysegul (2026-03-30)
This paper studies gender gaps in labor-market outcomes, with a focus on job ladder dynamics. We show that women experience substantially lower wage growth conditional on prior wages despite nearly identical job-to-job transition rates for men and women. To reconcile these observations, we document gender differences in the valuation of nonwage job amenities and in job search behavior, and develop a multi-dimensional job-ladder model with endogenous search effort where workers value both wages and amenities. The model allows for gender heterogeneity in separation rates, search effort, the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2026-05

Working Paper
Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions
Ratner, David; Chung, Hess T.; Nekarda, Christopher J.; Fallick, Bruce (2014-12-17)
This paper describes a dynamic factor model of 19 U.S. labor market indicators, covering the broad categories of unemployment and underemployment, employment, workweeks, wages, vacancies, hiring, layoffs, quits, and surveys of consumers' and businesses' perceptions. The resulting labor market conditions index (LMCI) is a useful tool for gauging the change in labor market conditions. In addition, the model provides a way to organize discussions of the signal value of different labor market indicators in situations when they might be sending diverse signals. The model takes the greatest signal ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-109

Working Paper
Has the Willingness to Work Fallen During the Pandemic?
Şahin, Ayşegül; Faberman, R. Jason; Mueller, Andreas I. (2022-02-01)
We examine the effect of the Covid pandemic on willingness to work along both the extensive and intensive margins of labor supply. Special survey questions in the Job Search Supplement of the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) allow us to elicit information about individuals’ desired work hours for the 2013-2021 period. Using these questions, along with workers’ actual labor market participation, we construct a labor market underutilization measure, the Aggregate Hours Gap (AHG), following Faberman et al. (2020). The AHG captures changes in labor market underutilization for the full ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2022-08

Journal Article
How the Pandemic Influenced Trends in Domestic Migration across U.S. Urban Areas
Tousey, Colton; Brown, Jason (2021-11-18)
Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, net domestic migration in the United States was generally increasing in smaller urban areas while declining in the largest urban areas; as people sought to mitigate exposure to COVID-19 and avoid stricter lockdown measures, the pandemic may have accelerated this trend. Changes in domestic migration trends may influence the longer-term growth prospects of places, but investigating recent trends in domestic migration can be challenging because data from official government sources are released with a long lag.Jason P. Brown and Colton Tousey overcome this lag by ...
Economic Review , Volume 106 , Issue no. 4

Working Paper
The Dual U.S. Labor Market Uncovered
Hobijn, Bart; Ahn, Hie Joo (2023-05-12)
Aggregate U.S. labor market dynamics are well approximated by a dual labor market supplemented with a third, predominantly, home-production segment. We uncover this structure by estimating a Hidden Markov Model, a machine-learning method. The different market segments are identified through (in-)equality constraints on labor market transition probabilities. This method yields time series of stocks and flows for the three segments for 1980-2021. Workers in the primary sector, who make up around 55 percent of the population, are almost always employed and rarely experience unemployment. The ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-031

Report
The Spread of COVID-19 and the BCG Vaccine: A Natural Experiment in Reunified Germany
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Bluhm, Richard (2020-05-01)
As COVID-19 has spread across the globe, several observers noticed that countries still administering an old vaccine against tuberculosis—the BCG vaccine—have had fewer COVID-19 cases and deaths per capita in the early stages of the outbreak. This paper uses a geographic regression discontinuity analysis to study whether and how COVID-19 prevalence changes discontinuously at the old border between West Germany and East Germany. The border used to separate two countries with very different vaccination policies during the Cold War era. We provide formal evidence that there is indeed a ...
Staff Reports , Paper 926

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