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Journal Article
Population Turnover and the Growth of Urban Areas
Tousey, Colton; Brown, Jason (2020-03-26)
People in the United States are relocating nearly half as much they did in the early 1980s. Lower population turnover—the propensity of people to move into or out of a given location—may mean a decline in labor market adjustment across industries and occupations; when people move across regions for job-related reasons, they may help smooth out changes that hit certain labor markets harder than others. Population turnover may also lead to better matches between employer and employee, an important factor in the growth of urban areas.Jason P. Brown and Colton Tousey examine the relationship ...
Economic Review , Volume v.105 , Issue no.1

Journal Article
Were Teleworkable Jobs Pandemic-Proof?
Tuzemen, Didem; Tran, Thao (2020-09-30)
While the majority of pandemic-related job losses have been in occupations where working from home was not possible, work-from-home or “teleworkable” jobs were not pandemic-proof. In addition, the number of teleworkable jobs lost and recovered differed by workers’ sex and education status. Both college-educated and non-college-educated women experienced larger employment losses and slower recoveries in teleworkable jobs than their male counterparts.
Economic Bulletin

Working Paper
Place-Based Labor Market Inequality
Webber, Douglas A.; Agnes, Isabella; Liu, Jessica; Troland, Erin (2025-06-02)
This paper presents an overview of how various labor market indicators differ across geography. While many indicators are often discussed in terms of national aggregates, such discussions obscure the large degree of variation that exists across localities. We primarily use counties as a geographic unit, and document both structural differences that persist over time as well as differences in the past two business cycles. The racial composition of communities plays a large role in explaining geographic differences in labor market indicators, in some cases even more so than income. We ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-040

Report
Credit Frictions in the Great Recession
Pastorino, Elena; Lopez, Pierlauro; Midrigan, Virgiliu; Kehoe, Patrick J. (2020-12-15)
Although a credit tightening is commonly recognized as a key determinant of the Great Recession, to date, it is unclear whether a worsening of credit conditions faced by households or by firms was most responsible for the downturn. Some studies have suggested that the household-side credit channel is quantitatively the most important one. Many others contend that the firm-side channel played a crucial role. We propose a model in which both channels are present and explicitly formalized. Our analysis indicates that the household-side credit channel is quantitatively more relevant than the ...
Staff Report , Paper 617

Working Paper
Unemployment Paths in a Pandemic Economy
Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas; Valletta, Robert G. (2020-05-05)
The COVID-19 pandemic has upended the U.S. economy and labor market. We assess the initial spike in unemployment due to the virus response and possible paths for the official unemployment rate through 2021. Substantial uncertainty surrounds the path for measured unemployment, depending on the path of the virus and containment measures and their impact on reported job search activity. We assess potential unemployment paths based on historical patterns of monthly flows in and out of unemployment, adjusted for unique features of the virus economy. The possible paths vary widely, but absent ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-18

Working Paper
Search with wage posting under sticky prices
Mustre-del-Rio, Jose; Foerster, Andrew T. (2014-12-01)
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 14-17

Working Paper
Vacancy Chains
Elsby, Michael; Michaels, Ryan; Gottfries, Axel; Ratner, David (2022-08-19)
Replacement hiring—recruitment that seeks to replace positions vacated by workers who quit—plays a central role in establishment dynamics. We document this phenomenon using rich microdata on U.S. establishments, which frequently report no net change in their employment, often for years at a time, despite facing substantial gross turnover in the form of quits. We devise a tractable model in which replacement hiring is driven by a novel structure of frictions, combining firm dynamics, on-the-job search, and investments into job creation that are sunk at the point of replacement. A key ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-23

Working Paper
Spatial Wage Gaps in Frictional Labor Markets
Porzio, Tommaso; Heise, Sebastian (2019-12-23)
We develop a job ladder model with labor reallocation across firms and regions, and estimate it on matched employer-employee data to study the large and persistent real wage gap between East and West Germany. We find that the wage gap is mostly due to firms paying higher wages per efficiency unit in West Germany and quantify a rich set of frictions preventing worker reallocation across space and across firms. We find that three spatial barriers impede East Germans’ ability to migrate West: migration costs, a preference to live in the East, and fewer job opportunities received from the West. ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 29

Working Paper
Moving to Fluidity: Regional Growth and Labor Market Churn
Hoffmann, Eran B.; Piazzesi, Monika; Schneider, Martin (2026-02-24)
This paper studies the connection between regional growth trends and labor market dynamics. New data on manufacturing worker flows for U.S. cities 1969-1981 show more new hires and more voluntary quits in growing cities, but more forced layoffs in shrinking cities. Recessions are special in growing cities in that hires and quits drop, whereas in shrinking cities layoffs rise. A quantitative business cycle model with migration and on-the-job search accounts for a large share of variation in growth and worker flows both over time and across space. Growing cities in the South and West had low ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 125

Working Paper
House Lock and Structural Unemployment
Valletta, Robert G. (2010-11-03)
A recent decline in geographic mobility in the United States may have been caused in part by falling house prices, through the ?lock in? effects of financial constraints faced by households whose housing debt exceeds the market value of their home. I analyze the relationship between such ?house lock? and the elevated levels and persistence of unemployment during the recent recession and its aftermath, using data that covers the period through the end of 2011. Because house lock will extend job search in the local labor market for homeowners whose home value has declined, I focus on ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2012-25

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