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Conference Paper
Crowding out redefined: the role of reserve accumulation
Reinhart, Carmen M.; Tashiro, Takeshi (2013-11)
It is well understood that investment serves as a shock absorber at the time of crisis. The duration of the drag on investment, however, is perplexing. For the nine Asian economies we focus on in this study, average investment/GDP is about 6 percentage points lower during 1998-2012 than its average level in the decade before the crisis; if China and India are excluded, the estimated decline exceeds 9 percent. We document how in the wake of crisis home bias in finance usually increases markedly as public and private sectors look inward when external financing becomes prohibitively costly, ...
Proceedings , Issue Nov , Pages 1-43

Working Paper
Endogenous Borrowing Constraints and Stagnation in Latin America
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina (2013-02-15)
The Latin American debt crisis of the 1980's had a major and long lasting effect on per-capita consumption: its level in 2005 was not that different from that in 1980. This paper studies the long stagnation in per-capita consumption that followed the crisis, and its relationship with recessions and sovereign risk, using a small open economy real business cycle model with complete markets, endogenous borrowing limits (limited commitment), endogenous capital accumulation, and domestic productivity and international interest rate shocks. I find that the model does an excellent job at explaining ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-37

Working Paper
Reaction functions in a small open economy: What role for non-traded inflation?
Santacreu, Ana Maria (2005-06-01)
I develop a structural general equilibrium model and estimate it for New Zealand using Bayesian techniques. The estimated model considers a monetary policy regime where the central bank targets overall inflation but is also concerned about output, exchange rate movements, and interest rate smoothing. Taking the posterior mean of the estimated parameters as representing the characteristics of the New Zealand economy, I compare the consequences that two alternative reaction functions have on the central bank's loss, for different specifications of its preferences. I obtain conditions under ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-44

Working Paper
International Capital Flows: Private Versus Public Flows in Developing and Developed Countries
Zhang, Jing; Kim, Yun Jung (2020-11-13)
Empirically, net capital inflows are pro-cyclical in developed countries and counter-cyclical in developing countries. That said, private inflows are pro-cyclical and public in flows are counter-cyclical in both groups of countries. The dominance of private (public) in flows in developed (developing) countries drives the difference in total net inflows. We rationalize these patterns using a dynamic stochastic two-sector model of a small open economy facing borrowing constraints. Private agents over-borrow because of the pecuniary externality arising from constraints. The government saves ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-27

Working Paper
Monetary Policy and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Sticky-Price Models
Yao, Fang; Nechio, Fernanda; Carvalho, Carlos (2014-07)
We study how real exchange rate dynamics are affected by monetary policy in dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium, sticky-price models. Our analytical and quantitative results show that the source of interest rate persistence ? policy inertia or persistent policy shocks ? is key. When the monetary policy rule has a strong interest rate smoothing component, these models fail to generate high real exchange rate persistence in response to monetary shocks, as policy inertia hampers their ability to generate a hump-shaped response to such shocks. Moreover, in the presence of persistent monetary ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-17

Working Paper
Estimating Dynamic Macroeconomic Models : How Informative Are the Data?
Beltran, Daniel O.; Draper, David (2016-08)
Central banks have long used dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, which are typically estimated using Bayesian techniques, to inform key policy decisions. This paper offers an empirical strategy that quantifies the information content of the data relative to that of the prior distribution. Using an off-the-shelf DSGE model applied to quarterly Euro Area data from 1970:3 to 2009:4, we show how Monte Carlo simulations can reveal parameters for which the model's structure obscures identification. By integrating out components of the likelihood function and conducting a Bayesian ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1175

Journal Article
Labor Force Exiters around Recessions: Who Are They?
Gregory, Victoria (2023-01-20)
This article identifies workers who experienced a job separation during the Great Recession or the pandemic recession and tracks their labor force status in the following year, using the Current Population Survey. Workers are classified as exiters if they leave the labor force shortly after their job loss and non-exiters if they do not. The pool of exiters is disproportionately female, less educated, and older. During the pandemic recession, there were even more older workers in the exiters pool, although they were less likely to report being retired compared with in the Great Recession. In ...
Review , Volume 105 , Issue 1 , Pages 9-20

Working Paper
Firm-Embedded Productivity and Cross-Country Income Differences
Alviarez, Vanessa; Cravino, Javier; Ramondo, Natalia (2020-10-13)
We measure the contribution of firm-embedded productivity to cross-country income differences. By firm-embedded productivity we refer to the components of productivity that differ across firms and that can be transferred internationally, such as blueprints, management practices, and intangible capital. Our approach relies on microlevel data on the cross-border operations of multinational enterprises (MNEs). We compare the market shares of the exact same MNE in different countries and document that they are about four times larger in developing than in high-income countries. This finding ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 39

Working Paper
Market structure and exchange rate pass-through
Auer, Raphael; Schoenle, Raphael (2012)
In this paper, we examine the extent to which market structure and the way in which it affects pricing decisions of profit-maximizing firms can explain incomplete exchange rate pass-through. To this purpose, we evaluate how pass-through rates vary across trade partners and sectors depending on the mass and size distribution of firms affected by a particular exchange rate shock. In the first step of our analysis, we decompose bilateral exchange rate movements into broad US Dollar (USD) movements and trade-partner currency (TPC) movements. Using micro data on US import prices, we show that the ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 130

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