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Conference Paper
Crowding out redefined: the role of reserve accumulation
Reinhart, Carmen M.; Tashiro, Takeshi (2013-11)
It is well understood that investment serves as a shock absorber at the time of crisis. The duration of the drag on investment, however, is perplexing. For the nine Asian economies we focus on in this study, average investment/GDP is about 6 percentage points lower during 1998-2012 than its average level in the decade before the crisis; if China and India are excluded, the estimated decline exceeds 9 percent. We document how in the wake of crisis home bias in finance usually increases markedly as public and private sectors look inward when external financing becomes prohibitively costly, ...
Proceedings , Issue Nov , Pages 1-43

Discussion Paper
Who’s Ready to Spend? Constrained Consumption across the Income Distribution
Dam, David; Melcangi, Davide; Pilossoph, Laura; Schirmer, Will (2021-05-13)
Spending on goods and services that were constrained during the pandemic is expected to grow at a fast pace as the economy reopens. In this post, we look at detailed spending data to track which consumption categories were the most constrained by the pandemic due to social distancing. We find that, in 2019, high-income households typically spent relatively more on these pandemic-constrained goods and services. Our findings suggest that these consumers may have strongly reduced consumption during the pandemic and will likely play a crucial role in unleashing pent-up demand when pandemic ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210513b

Discussion Paper
Assessing the Outlook for Employment across Industries
Klitgaard, Thomas; Nourbash, Ethan (2023-05-10)
Job gains exceeded output growth in 2022, bringing GDP per worker back down to its trend level after being well above for an extended period. Employment is consequently set to grow slower than output going forward, as it typically does. Breaking down the GDP per worker by industry, though, shows a significant divergence between the services and goods-producing sectors. Productivity in the services sector was modestly above its pre-pandemic path at the end of last year, suggesting room for relatively strong employment growth, with the gap particularly large in the health care, professional and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230510

Discussion Paper
Searching for Higher Wages
Kapon, Samuel; Topa, Giorgio; Pilossoph, Laura; Sahin, Aysegul; Armona, Luis (2015-09-02)
Since the peak of the recession, the unemployment rate has fallen by almost 5 percentage points, and observers continue to focus on whether and when this decline will lead to robust wage growth. Typically, in the wake of such a decline, real wages grow since there is more competition for workers among potential employers. While this relationship has historically been quite informative, real wage growth more recently has not been commensurate with observed declines in the unemployment rate.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150902

Discussion Paper
Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of . . . the Labor Market?
Rich, Robert W.; Bram, Jason; Abel, Joshua (2013-09-04)
Consumer confidence is closely monitored by policymakers and commentators because of the presumed insight it can offer into the outlook for consumer spending and thus the economy in general. Yet there’s another useful dimension to consumer confidence that’s often overlooked: its ability to signal incipient developments in the job market. In this post, we look at trends in a particular measure of consumer confidence—the Present Situation Index component of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index—over the past thirty-five years and show that they’re closely associated with ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130904

Discussion Paper
What to Make of Market Measures of Inflation Expectations?
Schaumburg, Ernst; Lucca, David O. (2011-08-15)
Central banks and investors around the world closely monitor developments in financial markets to gauge expectations of future interest rates and inflation. In this post, we argue that two of the most commonly used market-based inflation expectations measures—TIPS breakevens and inflation swaps—are noisy. Although movements in both measures provide policymakers with valuable information, readings should always be interpreted with care.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20110815

Discussion Paper
Opening the Toolbox: The Nowcasting Code on GitHub
Tambalotti, Andrea; Sbordone, Argia M.; Caratelli, Daniele; Schneier, Camilla; http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Giannone, Domenico; Bok, Brandyn; Adams, Patrick (2018-08-10)
In April 2016, we unveiled--and began publishing weekly--the New York Fed Staff Nowcast, an estimate of GDP growth using an automated platform for tracking economic conditions in real time. Today we go a step further by publishing the MATLAB code for the nowcasting model, available here on GitHub, a public repository hosting service. We hope that sharing our code will make it easier for people interested in monitoring the macroeconomy to understand the details underlying the nowcast and to replicate our results.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180810

Discussion Paper
Crisis Chronicles: The Crisis of 1816, the Year without a Summer, and Sunspot Equilibira
Narron, James; Morgan, Donald P. (2014-10-03)
In 1815, England emerged victorious after what had been nearly a quarter century of war with France. And during those years, encouraged by high prices and profits, England greatly expanded its agricultural and industrial capacity in terms of land and new machinery, with these activities often financed on credit. Improved harvests from 1812 to 1815 coincided with an export market boom in 1814, as the continent began to reopen for trade and speculation in South America increased. But the speculation turned to frenzy compared to the boom of 1810 as everything that could be shipped was ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20141003

Working Paper
The St. Louis Fed DSGE Model
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2025-09-25)
This document contains a technical description of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model developed and maintained by the Research Division of the St. Louis Fed as one of its tools for forecasting and policy analysis. The St. Louis Fed model departs from an otherwise standard medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model along two main dimensions: first, it allows for household heterogeneity, in the form of workers and capitalists, who have different marginal propensities to consume (MPC). Second, it explicitly models a fiscal sector endowed with multiple spending and revenue ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-014

Discussion Paper
Inflation and Japan's Ever-Tightening Labor Market
De Paoli, Bianca; Wheeler, Harry; Klitgaard, Thomas (2016-11-14)
Japan offers a preview of future U.S. demographic trends, having already seen a large increase in the population over 65. So, how has the Japanese economy dealt with this change? A look at the data shows that women of all ages have been pulled into the labor force and that more people are working longer. This transformation of the work force has not been enough to prevent a very tight labor market in a slowly growing economy, and it may help explain why inflation remains minimal. Namely, wages are not responding as much as they might to the tight labor market because women and older workers ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20161114

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