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Discussion Paper
Have Consumers Been Deleveraging?
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Lee, Donghoon; Brown, Meta; Haughwout, Andrew F. (2011-03-21)
Since its peak in summer 2008, U.S. consumers? indebtedness has fallen by more than a trillion dollars. Over roughly the same period, charge-offs?the removal of obligations from consumers? credit reports because of defaults?have risen sharply, especially on loans secured by houses, which make up about 80 percent of consumer liabilities. An important question for gauging the behavior of U.S. consumers is how to interpret these two trends. Is the reduction in debts entirely attributable to defaults, or are consumers actively reducing their debts? In this post, we demonstrate that a significant ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20110321

Discussion Paper
Just Released: Student Loan Delinquency Rate Defies Overall Downward Trend in Household Debt and Credit Report for Fourth Quarter 2014
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Lee, Donghoon; Brown, Meta; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Scally, Joelle (2015-02-17)
Today, the New York Fed released the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the fourth quarter of 2014. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s Consumer Credit Panel, a nationally representative sample drawn from anonymized Equifax credit data. Overall, aggregate balances increased by $117 billion, or 1.0 percent, boosted by increases in all credit types except home equity lines of credit.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150217

Discussion Paper
Introducing the FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations: Household Finance Expectations
Armantier, Olivier; Zafar, Basit; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2013-12-06)
In this fourth and final post in our series describing the new FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), we present the final component of the survey, dedicated to household finance. The information collected in the SCE on household income, spending, and access to credit will provide a real-time picture of U.S. households? situation and perceptions as well as rich and unique data for use by policymakers, researchers, and the public. While other surveys, such as the triennial Survey of Consumer Finances, provide data on the finances of U.S. families, few data sources provide timely ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20131206

Discussion Paper
Have Consumers Been Deleveraging?
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Lee, Donghoon; Brown, Meta; Haughwout, Andrew F. (2011-03-21)
Since its peak in summer 2008, U.S. consumers’ indebtedness has fallen by more than a trillion dollars. Over roughly the same period, charge-offs—the removal of obligations from consumers’ credit reports because of defaults—have risen sharply, especially on loans secured by houses, which make up about 80 percent of consumer liabilities. An important question for gauging the behavior of U.S. consumers is how to interpret these two trends. Is the reduction in debts entirely attributable to defaults, or are consumers actively reducing their debts? In this post, we demonstrate that a ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20110321

Discussion Paper
Looking at Student Loan Defaults through a Larger Window
Lee, Donghoon; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Scally, Joelle; Brown, Meta; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2015-02-19)
Most of our previous discussion about high levels of student loan delinquency and default has used static measures of payment status. But it is also instructive to consider the experience of borrowers over the lifetime of their student loans rather than at a point in time. In this second post in our three-part series on student loans, we use the Consumer Credit Panel (CCP), which is itself based on Equifax credit data, to create cohort default rates (CDRs) that are analogous to those produced by the Department of Education but go beyond their three-year window. We find that default rates ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150219

Discussion Paper
Trends and preferences in consumer payments: updates from the visa payment panel study
Herbst-Murphy, Susan (2015-07-03)
Michael Marx, senior director, Visa Research Insights, conducted a workshop in 2009 at the Payment Cards Center (PCC) as the economy was emerging from a recession. At that time, it appeared that the recession had affected consumer payment preferences, especially those related to cash and credit cards. To get an update on consumers? use of the various payment methods, the PCC invited Marx to facilitate another workshop in 2014. More recent findings from the Visa Payment Panel Study reveal declines in cash use ? a return to the long-term trend ? and increases in credit card use, perhaps ...
Consumer Finance Institute discussion papers , Paper 15-2

Discussion Paper
The Effect of Fed Funds Rate Hikes on Consumer Borrowing Costs
Boyarchenko, Nina; Plosser, Matthew; Kim, Sooji (2015-12-21)
The target federal funds rate has hovered around zero for nearly a decade, and observers are questioning what effect an increase could have on both the financial markets and the real economy. In this post, we examine the historical reaction of loan rates to target rate increases. Specifically, we examine the interest rates that banks offer on residential mortgages and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20151221

Discussion Paper
Which Households Have Negative Wealth?
Armantier, Olivier; De Giorgi, Giacomo; Armona, Luis; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2016-08-01)
At some point in its life a household’s total debt may exceed its total assets, in which case it has “negative wealth.” Even if this status is temporary, it may affect the household’s ability to save for durable goods, restrict access to further credit, and may require living in a state of limited consumption. Detailed analysis of the holdings of negative-wealth households, however, is a topic that has received little attention. In particular, relatively little is known about the characteristics of such households or about what drives negative wealth. A better understanding of these ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160801

Discussion Paper
The New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel: A Foundational CMD Data Set
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Mangrum, Daniel; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2024-04-17)
As the Great Financial Crisis and associated recession were unfolding in 2009, researchers at the New York Fed joined colleagues at the Board of Governors and Philadelphia Fed to create a new kind of data set. Household liabilities, particularly mortgages, had gone from being a quiet little corner of the financial system to the center of the worst financial crisis and sharpest recession in decades. The new data set was designed to provide fresh insights into this part of the economy, especially the behavior of mortgage borrowers. In the fifteen years since that effort came to fruition, the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240417

Discussion Paper
Forecasting Interest Rates over the Long Run
Diamond, Peter A.; Yu, Rui; Adrian, Tobias; Crump, Richard K. (2016-07-18)
In a previous post, we showed how market rates on U.S. Treasuries violate the expectations hypothesis because of time-varying risk premia. In this post, we provide evidence that term structure models have outperformed direct market-based measures in forecasting interest rates. This suggests that term structure models can play a role in long-run planning for public policy objectives such as assessing the viability of Social Security.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160718

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