Search Results

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Newsletter
Measuring the Effects of the Covid-19 Delta Wave on the U.S. Hourly Labor Market
Grove, Stephanie; Cole, Ross; Brave, Scott A. (2021-10-01)
In this article, we take a closer look at the implications of rising Covid-19 cases and vaccination rates for the U.S. hourly labor market. To do so, we rely on geographic variation in the high-frequency data collected by the firm Homebase with its timekeeping software. This data source allows us to make use of U.S. state-level variation on a daily basis in order to decompose the effects on hourly employees and hours worked from both rising cases and vaccinations.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 461 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Breaking down world trade elasticities: a panel ECM approach
Martinez-Martin, Jaime (2016-07-18)
This paper exhaustively analyses the recent decline of international trade elasticities to output growth. We extend an empirical model of import demand functions to account not only for transitory factors, such as relative prices and import intensity-adjusted measures of demand (I-O Tables), but also for habitually neglected permanent factors such as protectionism, vertical integration (i.e. Global Value Chains) and foreign direct investment (FDI). Dealing with a non-stationary heteregenous panel of 27 countries, we estimate a panel Error Correction Model from 1960 to 2015 in order to break ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 275

Working Paper
A Robust Method for Microforecasting and Estimation of Random Effects
Giacomini, Raffaella; Lee, Sokbae; Sarpietro, Silvia (2023-08-02)
We propose a method for forecasting individual outcomes and estimating random effects in linear panel data models and value-added models when the panel has a short time dimension. The method is robust, trivial to implement and requires minimal assumptions. The idea is to take a weighted average of time series- and pooled forecasts/estimators, with individual weights that are based on time series information. We show the forecast optimality of individual weights, both in terms of minimax-regret and of mean squared forecast error. We then provide feasible weights that ensure good performance ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2023-26

Working Paper
Checking the Path Towards Recovery from the COVID-19 Isolation Response
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique; Kydland, Finn E. (2020-05-12)
This paper examines the impact of the behavioral changes and governments' responses to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic using a unique dataset of daily private forecasters' expectations on a sample of 32 emerging and advanced economies from January 1 till April 13, 2020. We document three important lessons from the data: First, there is evidence of a relation between the stringency of the policy interventions and the health outcomes consistent with slowing down the spread of the pandemic. Second, we find robust evidence that private forecasters have come to anticipate a sizeable ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 384

Working Paper
How have global shocks impacted the real effective exchange rates of individual Euro area countries since the Euro's creation?
Mehl, Arnaud; Chudik, Alexander; Bussiere, Matthieu (2011)
This paper uncovers the response pattern to global shocks of euro area countries' real effective exchange rates before and after the start of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), a largely open ended question when the euro was created. We apply to that end a newly developed methodology based on high dimensional VAR theory. This approach features a dominant unit to a large set of over 60 countries' real effective exchange rates and is based on the comparison of two estimated systems: one before and one after EMU. ; We find strong evidence that the pattern of responses depends crucially on the ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 102

Working Paper
An Augmented Anderson-Hsiao Estimator for Dynamic Short-T Panels
Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem (2021-03-27)
This paper introduces the idea of self-instrumenting endogenous regressors in settings when the correlation between these regressors and the errors can be derived and used to bias-correct the moment conditions. The resulting bias-corrected moment conditions are less likely to be subject to the weak instrument problem and can be used on their own or in conjunction with other available moment conditions to obtain more efficient estimators. This approach can be applied to estimation of a variety of models such as spatial and dynamic panel data models. This paper focuses on the latter, and ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 327

Report
A New Jackknife Variance Estimator for Time-Series and Panel Regressions
Lopez Gaffney, Ignacio; Crump, Richard K.; Gospodinov, Nikolay (2024-10-01)
We introduce a new jackknife variance estimator for time-series and panel-data regressions. The novelty in our approach is that we first rotate the data using a particular choice of trigonometric basis functions. This rotation removes serial correlation in a broad class of time-series processes, including random walks, and enables the use of the conventional leave-one-out jackknife on the transformed space of the regressors and residuals. The procedure is tuning-parameter free and naturally adapts to the degree of persistence of the data. We prove the asymptotic validity of our variance ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1133

Working Paper
A Local Projections Approach to Difference-in-Differences Event Studies
Jordà, Òscar; Girardi, Daniele; Dube, Arindrajit; Taylor, Alan M. (2023-04-20)
Many of the challenges in the estimation of dynamic heterogeneous treatment effects can be resolved with local projection (LP) estimators of the sort used in applied macroeconometrics. This approach provides a convenient alternative to the more complicated solutions proposed in the recent literature on Difference in-Differences (DiD). The key is to combine LPs with a flexible ‘clean control’ condition to define appropriate sets of treated and control units. Our proposed LP-DiD estimator is clear, simple, easy and fast to compute, and it is transparent and flexible in its handling of ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2023-12

Working Paper
Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle
Pfajfar, Damjan; Berge, Travis J. (2019-03-25)
We produce business cycle chronologies for U.S. states and evaluate the factors that change the probability of moving from one phase to another. We find strong evidence for positive duration dependence in all business cycle phases but find that the effect is modest relative to other state- and national-level factors. Monetary policy shocks also have a strong influence on the transition probabilities in a highly asymmetric way. The effect of policy shocks depends on the current state of the cycle as well as the sign and size of the shock.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-020

Working Paper
Pooled Bewley Estimator of Long-Run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogenous Panels
Smith, Ron P.; Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem (2023-11-08)
Using a transformation of the autoregressive distributed lag model due to Bewley, a novel pooled Bewley (PB) estimator of long-run coefficients for dynamic panels with heterogeneous short-run dynamics is proposed. The PB estimator is directly comparable to the widely used Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, and is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Monte Carlo simulations show good small sample performance of PB compared to the existing estimators in the literature, namely PMG, panel dynamic OLS (PDOLS) and panel fully-modified OLS (FMOLS). Application of two bias-correction ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 409

show more (64)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

FILTER BY Keywords