Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle

RePEc Short ID: ppf8
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7737-0470

Berge, Travis J.; Pfajfar, Damjan

doi:10.17016/FEDS.2019.020

Working Paper

Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle

Abstract: We produce business cycle chronologies for U.S. states and evaluate the factors that change the probability of moving from one phase to another. We find strong evidence for positive duration dependence in all business cycle phases but find that the effect is modest relative to other state- and national-level factors. Monetary policy shocks also have a strong influence on the transition probabilities in a highly asymmetric way. The effect of policy shocks depends on the current state of the cycle as well as the sign and size of the shock.

Keywords: Duration analysis; Business cycles; Hazard rates; Monetary policy asymmetries;

JEL Classification: E32; C23; C25; E52;

https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2019.020