Search Results
Working Paper
Decomposing the Government Transfer Multiplier
Conley, Timothy G.; Dupor, Bill; Li, Rong; Zhou, Yijiang
(2023-07-24)
We estimate the local, spillover and aggregate causal effects of government transfers on personal income. We identify exogenous changes in federal transfers to residents at the state-level using legislated social security cost-of-living adjustments between 1952 and 1974. Each effect is measured as a multiplier: the change in personal income in response to a one unit change in transfers. The local multiplier, i.e., the effect of own-state transfers on own-state income holding fixed other state's income, at a four-quarter horizon is approximately 3.4. The cross-state spillover multiplier is ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2023-017
Working Paper
Channel systems: Why is there a positive spread?
Marchesiani, Alessandro; Berentsen, Aleksander; Waller, Christopher J.
(2010)
An increasing number of central banks implement monetary policy via two standing facilities: a lending facility and a deposit facility. In this paper we show that it is socially optimal to implement a non-zero interest rate spread. We prove this result in a dynamic general equilibrium model where market participants have heterogeneous liquidity needs and where the central bank requires government bonds as collateral. We also calibrate the model and discuss the behavior of the money market rate and the volumes traded at the ECB?s deposit and lending facilities in response to the recent ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2010-049
Working Paper
Charging up a mountain of debt: households and their credit cards.
Yoo, Peter S.
(1996)
I use the Surveys of Consumer Finances conducted in 1983, 1989 and 1992 to separate the growth of credit card debt into two categories, changes in the number of households with credit cards and changes in households credit card debt. I can then account for the relative contributions of increases in credit card availability, number of households, and average credit card debt. I also use the household income information to quantify the impact of more lower income households with credit cards. Data suggest that the increases in credit card debt is largely attributable to increased average credit ...
Working Papers
, Paper 1996-015
Working Paper
Debt constrained asset markets
Kehoe, Timothy J.; Levine, David K.
(1992)
We develop a theory of general equilibrium with endogenous debt limits in the form of individual rationality constraints similar to those in the dynamic consistency literature. If an agent defaults on a contract, he can be excluded from future contingent claims markets trading and can have his assets seized. He cannot be excluded from spot markets trading, however, and he has some private endowments that cannot be seized. All information is publicly held and common knowledge, and there is a complete set of contingent claims markets. Since there is complete information, an agent cannot enter ...
Working Papers
, Paper 445
Working Paper
On the aggregate welfare cost of Great Depression unemployment
Chatterjee, Satyajit; Corbae, Dean
(2006)
The potential benefit of policies that eliminate a small likelihood of economic crises is calculated. An economic crisis is defined as an increase in unemployment of the magnitude observed during the Great Depression. For the U.S., the maximum-likelihood estimate of entering a depression is found to be about once every 83 years. The welfare gain from setting this small probability to zero can range between 1 and 7 percent of annual consumption in perpetuity. For most estimates, more than half of these large gains result from a reduction in individual consumption volatility. ; This paper ...
Working Papers
, Paper 06-18
Working Paper
Bayesian Estimation and Comparison of Conditional Moment Models
Simoni, Anna; Shin, Minchul; Chib, Siddhartha
(2019-12-09)
We provide a Bayesian analysis of models in which the unknown distribution of the outcomes is speci?ed up to a set of conditional moment restrictions. This analysis is based on the nonparametric exponentially tilted empirical likelihood (ETEL) function, which is constructed to satisfy a sequence of unconditional moments, obtained from the conditional moments by an increasing (in sample size) vector of approximating functions (such as tensor splines based on the splines of each conditioning variable). The posterior distribution is shown to satisfy the Bernstein-von Mises theorem, subject to a ...
Working Papers
, Paper 19-51
Working Paper
Has COVID Reversed Gentrification in Major U.S. Cities? An Empirical Examination of Residential Mobility in Gentrifying Neighborhoods During the COVID-19 Crisis
Ding, Lei; Hwang, Jackelyn
(2022-08-17)
This paper examines whether neighborhoods that had been gentrifying lost their appeal during the pandemic because of COVID-induced health risks and increased work-from-home arrangements. By following the mobility pattern of residents in gentrifying neighborhoods in 39 major U.S. cities, we note a larger increase of 1.2 percentage points in the outmigration rate from gentrifying neighborhoods by the end of 2021, relative to nongentrifying ones, with out-of-city moves accounting for over 71 percent of the increased flight. The share of out-of-city moves into gentrifying neighborhoods also ...
Working Papers
, Paper 22-20
Working Paper
Nowcasting Tail Risks to Economic Activity with Many Indicators
Clark, Todd E.; Carriero, Andrea; Massimiliano, Marcellino
(2020-05-11)
This paper focuses on tail risk nowcasts of economic activity, measured by GDP growth, with a potentially wide array of monthly and weekly information. We consider different models (Bayesian mixed frequency regressions with stochastic volatility, classical and Bayesian quantile regressions, quantile MIDAS regressions) and also different methods for data reduction (either the combination of forecasts from smaller models or forecasts from models that incorporate data reduction). The results show that classical and MIDAS quantile regressions perform very well in-sample but not out-of-sample, ...
Working Papers
, Paper 20-13
Working Paper
The Sufficient Statistic Approach: Predicting the Top of the Laffer Curve
Huggett, Mark; Badel, Alejandro
(2015-11-10)
We provide a formula for the tax rate at the top of the Laffer curve as a function of three elasticities. Our formula applies to static models and to steady states of dynamic models. One of the elasticities that enters our formula has been estimated in the elasticity of taxable income literature. We apply standard empirical methods from this literature to data produced by reforming the tax system in a model economy. We find that these standard methods underestimate the relevant elasticity in models with endogenous human capital accumulation.
Working Papers
, Paper 2015-38
Working Paper
A quality and risk-adjusted cost function for banks: evidence on the \" too-big-to-fail\" doctrine
Mester, Loretta J.; Hughes, Joseph P.
(1991)
Working Papers
, Paper 91-21
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N11 7 items
O34 7 items
R20 7 items
A14 6 items
C3 6 items
D62 6 items
D74 6 items
E25 6 items
F15 6 items
F23 6 items
F3 6 items
F33 6 items
F6 6 items
F60 6 items
F63 6 items
G1 6 items
G31 6 items
G50 6 items
G52 6 items
H1 6 items
H3 6 items
J33 6 items
K42 6 items
N10 6 items
N4 6 items
O1 6 items
O15 6 items
O19 6 items
O30 6 items
R33 6 items
R51 6 items
C21 5 items
C31 5 items
C43 5 items
D33 5 items
D42 5 items
E10 5 items
E66 5 items
E7 5 items
E70 5 items
F5 5 items
F51 5 items
I2 5 items
J18 5 items
K14 5 items
L23 5 items
L52 5 items
L60 5 items
M41 5 items
O14 5 items
O24 5 items
O43 5 items
Q40 5 items
Q48 5 items
R1 5 items
R2 5 items
A11 4 items
B0 4 items
C1 4 items
C91 4 items
D4 4 items
D41 4 items
D53 4 items
D57 4 items
E26 4 items
F38 4 items
F45 4 items
G00 4 items
G29 4 items
G38 4 items
H23 4 items
H32 4 items
H52 4 items
I10 4 items
I20 4 items
I32 4 items
J38 4 items
J44 4 items
J46 4 items
J7 4 items
J71 4 items
L1 4 items
L22 4 items
M37 4 items
N42 4 items
N90 4 items
N92 4 items
O17 4 items
O25 4 items
P16 4 items
Q51 4 items
Q53 4 items
R13 4 items
R28 4 items
R4 4 items
R40 4 items
B4 3 items
C00 3 items
C10 3 items
C18 3 items
C34 3 items
C41 3 items
C54 3 items
C62 3 items
D03 3 items
D13 3 items
D71 3 items
D90 3 items
E0 3 items
F02 3 items
F50 3 items
G40 3 items
H11 3 items
H4 3 items
H54 3 items
H55 3 items
H6 3 items
H60 3 items
H68 3 items
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J01 3 items
J08 3 items
J28 3 items
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J78 3 items
K0 3 items
K21 3 items
L0 3 items
L12 3 items
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L24 3 items
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L5 3 items
L62 3 items
N32 3 items
N50 3 items
O32 3 items
O57 3 items
P43 3 items
Q31 3 items
Q33 3 items
Q35 3 items
R0 3 items
R14 3 items
R5 3 items
A1 2 items
A13 2 items
B2 2 items
B23 2 items
B41 2 items
C35 2 items
C46 2 items
C50 2 items
C60 2 items
C67 2 items
D01 2 items
D02 2 items
D44 2 items
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D5 2 items
D6 2 items
D70 2 items
D78 2 items
D9 2 items
E02 2 items
E49 2 items
E59 2 items
E69 2 items
F00 2 items
G13 2 items
G3 2 items
G35 2 items
H12 2 items
H22 2 items
H27 2 items
H40 2 items
H43 2 items
H51 2 items
H70 2 items
H74 2 items
H83 2 items
H87 2 items
I21 2 items
J0 2 items
J00 2 items
J40 2 items
J45 2 items
J48 2 items
J68 2 items
K10 2 items
K12 2 items
K37 2 items
K40 2 items
L20 2 items
L50 2 items
L51 2 items
L82 2 items
M13 2 items
M42 2 items
M50 2 items
M52 2 items
N20 2 items
N72 2 items
O2 2 items
O23 2 items
O51 2 items
Q38 2 items
Q42 2 items
Q50 2 items
Q56 2 items
R32 2 items
R42 2 items
R50 2 items
R52 2 items
R53 2 items
Z0 2 items
Z1 2 items
B1 1 items
C02 1 items
C2 1 items
C39 1 items
C4 1 items
C44 1 items
C6 1 items
C68 1 items
C71 1 items
C80 1 items
C87 1 items
C92 1 items
C93 1 items
D04 1 items
D19 1 items
D20 1 items
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D25 1 items
D3 1 items
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D7 1 items
E03 1 items
E64 1 items
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F65 1 items
G0 1 items
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FILTER BY Keywords
Monetary policy 243 items
Business cycles 150 items
Inflation (Finance) 113 items
COVID-19 107 items
monetary policy 98 items
Econometric models 80 items
Forecasting 74 items
Interest rates 69 items
Prices 68 items
Unemployment 66 items
Taxation 64 items
inflation 60 items
Foreign exchange rates 59 items
Housing 52 items
fiscal policy 46 items
International trade 43 items
Fiscal policy 42 items
Incomplete Markets 42 items
Banks and banking 41 items
Consumption (Economics) 41 items
Labor market 41 items
Mortgages 41 items
Money supply 40 items
Productivity 40 items
inequality 40 items
Macroeconomics 39 items
Money 39 items
Regional economics 39 items
Credit 38 items
time series analysis 38 items
Bank loans 37 items
Risk 37 items
unemployment 37 items
Economic development 36 items
Wages 35 items
Foreign exchange 34 items
Debt 33 items
Ramsey Problem 33 items
Bankruptcy 32 items
consumption 29 items
human capital 29 items
liquidity 29 items
international trade 28 items
Rational expectations (Economic theory) 27 items
business cycles 27 items
Asset pricing 26 items
Bank failures 26 items
Employment (Economic theory) 26 items
Financial crises 26 items
Stock market 26 items
Employment 25 items
Great Recession 25 items
Monetary policy - United States 25 items
Production (Economic theory) 25 items
Investments 24 items
Phillips curve 24 items
Stock - Prices 24 items
Trade 24 items
Banks and banking, Central 23 items
Consumer credit 23 items
Default 23 items
Education 23 items
Financial markets 23 items
Heterogeneous Agents 23 items
Income 23 items
Inequality 23 items
Banks and banking - Costs 22 items
Inventories 22 items
Liquidity (Economics) 22 items
consumer credit 22 items
Credit cards 21 items
Deposit insurance 21 items
Monetary Policy 21 items
Capital 20 items
Competition 20 items
Inflation 20 items
Mortgage loans 20 items
Vector autoregression 20 items
forecasting 20 items
Bank reserves 19 items
Econometrics 19 items
Human capital 19 items
Income distribution 19 items
labor supply 19 items
productivity 19 items
Economies of scale 18 items
Federal Open Market Committee 18 items
Monetary theory 18 items
Payment systems 18 items
Petroleum industry and trade 18 items
Recessions 18 items
Technology 18 items
Welfare 18 items
discretion 18 items
Bank capital 17 items
Bank mergers 17 items
Economic forecasting 17 items
Human behavior 17 items
Keynesian economics 17 items
Uncertainty 17 items
employment 17 items
financial frictions 17 items
Bank supervision 16 items
Risk management 16 items
Saving and investment 16 items
Tariff 16 items
credit cards 16 items
Bank competition 15 items
Consumer behavior 15 items
Corporations - Finance 15 items
Default (Finance) 15 items
Foreclosure 15 items
Gross domestic product 15 items
International finance 15 items
Labor supply 15 items
banks 15 items
job search 15 items
misallocation 15 items
mobility 15 items
mortgage 15 items
welfare 15 items
Depressions 14 items
Exports 14 items
Federal funds rate 14 items
Housing - Prices 14 items
Job Search 14 items
Mortgage 14 items
Regulation 14 items
credit constraints 14 items
fintech 14 items
government debt 14 items
recession 14 items
vacancies 14 items
Bonds 13 items
Expenditures, Public 13 items
Federal Reserve System 13 items
Fiscal Policy 13 items
Game theory 13 items
Mexico 13 items
Money theory 13 items
Patents 13 items
Real-time data 13 items
Sovereign Debt 13 items
Stock exchanges 13 items
Wealth 13 items
default 13 items
deficit 13 items
heterogeneity 13 items
inflation expectations 13 items
institutional design 13 items
mortgages 13 items
political frictions 13 items
time-consistency 13 items
uncertainty 13 items
zero lower bound 13 items
Banking 12 items
Cities and towns 12 items
Contracts 12 items
Crises 12 items
Emigration and immigration 12 items
Equilibrium (Economics) 12 items
Insurance 12 items
Latin America 12 items
Unemployment Insurance 12 items
capital asset pricing model 12 items
credit spreads 12 items
economic conditions - United States 12 items
education 12 items
financial stability 12 items
immigration 12 items
real-time data 12 items
regulation 12 items
Business Cycles 11 items
China 11 items
Consumption 11 items
Country Risk 11 items
Federal Reserve 11 items
Human Capital 11 items
Immigrants 11 items
Social security 11 items
Sovereign default 11 items
heterogeneous agents 11 items
income inequality 11 items
insurance 11 items
population dynamics 11 items
technology adoption 11 items
Bayesian inference 10 items
Discrimination in mortgage loans 10 items
Economic conditions 10 items
Economics 10 items
Japan 10 items
Liquidity 10 items
Markov-switching 10 items
North American Free Trade Agreement 10 items
Technology - Economic aspects 10 items
consumer payments 10 items
convergence 10 items
emerging markets 10 items
expectations 10 items
financial crises 10 items
financial crisis 10 items
intellectual property rights 10 items
interest rates 10 items
job displacement 10 items
labor markets 10 items
pandemic 10 items
spillovers 10 items
technology diffusion 10 items
Assets (Accounting) 9 items
Business cycles - Econometric models 9 items
Capital movements 9 items
Consumer price indexes 9 items
Demography 9 items
Gambling industry 9 items
Germany 9 items
Great Britain 9 items
Misallocation 9 items
Open market operations 9 items
Price levels 9 items
Quantitative Easing 9 items
R&D 9 items
Real property 9 items
Research and development 9 items
Subprime mortgage 9 items
bank lending 9 items
credit supply 9 items
earnings dynamics 9 items
earnings losses 9 items
employer effects 9 items
financial development 9 items
financial distress 9 items
fiscal multipliers 9 items
high-frequency data 9 items
innovation 9 items
intermediation 9 items
job mobility 9 items
machine learning 9 items
mortality 9 items
oil price 9 items
prediction 9 items
quantitative easing 9 items
search frictions 9 items
student loans 9 items
trade 9 items
Argentina 8 items
Bank notes 8 items
Banking market 8 items
Bayesian estimation 8 items
Beveridge curve 8 items
Capital Taxation 8 items
Debts, Public 8 items
Economic policy 8 items
Free trade 8 items
Home equity loans 8 items
Internet 8 items
Manufactures 8 items
Maturity 8 items
Population 8 items
Price Dispersion 8 items
Regional Economics 8 items
Retirement 8 items
Securities 8 items
Stochastic analysis 8 items
Structural VAR 8 items
Taylor's rule 8 items
Terrorism 8 items
austerity 8 items
debt sustainability 8 items
demographics 8 items
economic transition 8 items
effective lower bound 8 items
endogenous growth 8 items
exchange rates 8 items
firm dynamics 8 items
fiscal rules 8 items
growth 8 items
household finances 8 items
housing 8 items
identification 8 items
investment 8 items
life expectancy 8 items
migration 8 items
military spending 8 items
oil 8 items
pandemics 8 items
racial disparities 8 items
remote work 8 items
royalty payments 8 items
small business lending 8 items
stochastic volatility 8 items
taxation 8 items
total factor productivity (TFP) 8 items
venture capital 8 items
wages 8 items
war 8 items
work from home 8 items
zombie firms 8 items
Aging 7 items
Altruism 7 items
Bank deposits 7 items
Bank holding companies 7 items
Bayesian VARs 7 items
Bretton Woods 7 items
Canada 7 items
Capital investments 7 items
Discount 7 items
Dollar, American 7 items
Entrepreneurship 7 items
Finance 7 items
Financial institutions 7 items
Foreign exchange - Law and legislation 7 items
Futures 7 items
Gentrification 7 items
Geography 7 items
Heterogeneity 7 items
Housing - Finance 7 items
Industries 7 items
Instrumental Variables 7 items
Investments, Foreign 7 items
Local transit 7 items
Macroprudential policy 7 items
Malthus 7 items
Pensions 7 items
Phillips Curve 7 items
Power resources 7 items
Power resources - Prices 7 items
Savings and loan associations 7 items
Sign Restrictions 7 items
Solow 7 items
Structural Vector Autoregressions 7 items
Supply and Demand Shocks 7 items
Technology diffusion 7 items
Uniform Pricing 7 items
Urban economics 7 items
VAR 7 items
agricultural employment 7 items
banking 7 items
banking panics 7 items
big data 7 items
bond markets 7 items
cluster analysis 7 items
college quality 7 items
contagion 7 items
credit card debt 7 items
crises 7 items
event study 7 items
government transfers 7 items
inference 7 items
layoffs 7 items
moral hazard 7 items
policy 7 items
quits 7 items
reallocation 7 items
recursive contracts 7 items
research and development 7 items
retirement 7 items
sovereign debt 7 items
structural VAR 7 items
survey expectations 7 items
surveys 7 items
telecommuting 7 items
trade policy 7 items
unemployment insurance 7 items
Asset-backed financing 6 items
Automated tellers 6 items
Bank investments 6 items
Banking structure 6 items
Bargaining 6 items
Bayesian methods 6 items
Branch banks 6 items
Capital Flows 6 items
Clearinghouses (Banking) 6 items
Contracting out 6 items
Corporations 6 items
Costly Information 6 items
Credit scoring systems 6 items
Credit unions 6 items
European Economic Community 6 items
Federal Reserve Act 6 items
Financial services industry 6 items
Gini coefficients 6 items
Global financial crisis 6 items
Hedging (Finance) 6 items
IPO 6 items
Immigration 6 items
Immiseration 6 items
Inflation targeting 6 items
Inflows 6 items
Information 6 items
Interstate banking 6 items
Investments, Foreign - United States 6 items
Loans 6 items
Machine Learning 6 items
Macroeconomics - Econometric models 6 items
Markets 6 items
Markov-perfect equilibrium 6 items
Money demand 6 items
Multiple Applications 6 items
Nonlinearity 6 items
Nowcasting 6 items
Optimal Capital Taxation 6 items
Optimal Fiscal Policy 6 items
Optimal Public Debt 6 items
Optimal taxation 6 items
Outflows 6 items
Paycheck Protection Program 6 items
Philadelphia (Pa.) 6 items
Poverty 6 items
Pricing 6 items
Rate of return 6 items
Regression analysis 6 items
Rent 6 items
Retail trade 6 items
Search 6 items
Seasonal variations (Economics) 6 items
Stocks 6 items
Tax Smoothing 6 items
Vacancies 6 items
asset prices 6 items
asymmetry 6 items
attrition 6 items
bank closures 6 items
business cycle 6 items
central bank 6 items
clustering 6 items
credit 6 items
credit scores 6 items
crime 6 items
debt 6 items
evergreening 6 items
exchange rate 6 items
factor models 6 items
financial markets 6 items
firms 6 items
forward guidance 6 items
general equilibrium 6 items
globalization 6 items
inattention 6 items
incomplete markets 6 items
mortgage defaults 6 items
optimal monetary policy 6 items
persistent private information 6 items
rational inattention 6 items
relationship lending 6 items
risk 6 items
search 6 items
sign restrictions 6 items
skewness 6 items
social insurance 6 items
startups 6 items
structural breaks 6 items
survey forecasts 6 items
volatility 6 items
wage dispersion 6 items
wealth inequality 6 items
wildfires 6 items
yield curves 6 items
Arbitrage 5 items
Asymmetry 5 items
Bank stocks 5 items
Basel capital accord 5 items
Bayesian statistical decision theory 5 items
Check collection systems 5 items
Checks 5 items
Consumer Credit 5 items
Consumers' preferences 5 items
Credit policy 5 items
Demand for money 5 items
Development 5 items
Economic growth 5 items
Economic history 5 items
Economic stabilization 5 items
Emerging Markets 5 items
Equilibrium (Economics) - Mathematical models 5 items
Equity 5 items
Exchange rate 5 items
Federal Reserve District, 3rd 5 items
Federal funds market (United States) 5 items
Financial crisis 5 items
Fiscal Multiplier 5 items
Fiscal Multipliers 5 items
Fiscal Policy and Household Behavior 5 items
Foreign aid program 5 items
GDP 5 items
Government securities 5 items
Government spending policy 5 items
Great Depression 5 items
Gross national product 5 items
Heterogeneous agents 5 items
Home ownership 5 items
Household saving 5 items
Industrial location 5 items
Intermediation (Finance) 5 items
International business enterprises 5 items
Labor productivity 5 items
Labor turnover 5 items
Markov processes 5 items
Medical care 5 items
Microeconomics 5 items
Mobility 5 items
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