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Working Paper
The ins and arounds in the U.S. housing market
Bachmann, Rüdiger; Cooper, Daniel H. (2014-07-21)
In the United States, 15 percent of households change residence in a given year. This result is based on data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics on gross flows within and between the two segments of the housing market ? renter-occupied properties and owner-occupied properties. The gross flows between these two segments are four times larger than the net flows. From a secular perspective, housing turnover exhibits a hump-shaped pattern between 1970 and 2000, which this paper attributes to changes in the age composition of the U.S. population. At higher frequencies, housing turnover is ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-3

Working Paper
A New Way to Quantify the Effect of Uncertainty
Throckmorton, Nathaniel A.; Richter, Alexander W. (2017-05-04)
This paper develops a new way to quantify the effect of uncertainty and other higher-order moments. First, we estimate a nonlinear model using Bayesian methods with data on uncertainty, in addition to common macro time series. This key step allows us to decompose the exogenous and endogenous sources of uncertainty, calculate the effect of volatility following the cost of business cycles literature, and generate data-driven policy functions for any higherorder moment. Second, we use the Euler equation to analytically decompose consumption into several terms--expected consumption, the ex-ante ...
Working Papers , Paper 1705

Working Paper
Private Information and Optimal Infant Industry Protection
Riezman, Raymond; Ravikumar, B.; Zhang, Yuzhe (2024-04-18)
We study infant industry protection using a dynamic model in which the industry's cost is initially higher than that of foreign competitors. The industry can stochastically lower its cost via learning by doing. Whether the industry has transitioned to low cost is private information. Using a mechanism-design approach, we solve for the optimal protection policy that induces the industry to reveal its true cost. We show that (i) the optimal protection, measured by infant industry output, declines over time and is less than that under public information, (ii) the optimal protection policy is ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-013

Working Paper
Private Information and Optimal Infant Industry Protection
Riezman, Raymond; Ravikumar, B.; Zhang, Yuzhe (2022-05-20)
We study infant industry protection using a dynamic model in which the industry's cost is initially higher than that of foreign competitors. The industry can stochastically lower its cost via learning by doing. Whether the industry has transitioned to low cost is private information. We use a mechanism-design approach to induce the industry to reveal its true cost. We show that (i) the optimal protection, measured by infant industry output, declines over time and is less than that under public information, (ii) the optimal protection policy is time consistent under public information but not ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-013

Working Paper
Toxic exposure in America: estimating fetal and infant health outcomes
Banternghansa, Chanont; Agarwal, Nikhil; Bui, Linda T.M. (2009)
We examine the effect of toxic exposure on U.S. infant and fetal mortality rates between 1989 and 2002 from toxic pollution released by facilities reporting to the Toxic Release Inventory (TRI). Unlike previous studies, we control for toxic pollution from mobile sources and from non-TRI reporting facilities. We find significant adverse effects of TRI exposure on infant mortality. There is evidence that health effects vary across media: air and water having a larger impact than land pollution. And, within air, we find that releases of carcinogens are particularly problematic for infant health ...
Working Papers , Paper 2009-016

Working Paper
Cross-border Patenting, Globalization, and Development
Martinez-Zarzoso, Immaculada; LaBelle, Jesse; Yotov, Yoto; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2024-01)
We build a stylized model that captures the relationships between cross-border patenting, globalization, and development. Our theory delivers a gravity equation for cross-border patents. To test the model’s predictions, we compile a new dataset that tracks patents within and between countries and industries, for 1980-2019. The econometric analysis reveals a strong, positive impact of policy and globalization on cross-border patent flows, especially from North to South. A counterfactual welfare analysis suggests that the increase in patent flows from North to South has benefited both ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-031

Working Paper
Identifying the macroeconomic effect of loan supply shocks
Tootell, Geoffrey M. B.; Rosengren, Eric S.; Peek, Joe (2000)
Evidence of an operative credit channel has been inconclusive. The inability to clearly distinguish the effects of shocks to loan supply from those to loan demand has made it difficult to quantify the importance of this transmission mechanism to the economy. This paper provides an innovative approach to identifying loan supply shocks that enables us to show that such disturbances have had economically important effects on the U.S. economy over the past two decades. We provide three different pieces of evidence that confirm that loan supply shocks have been successfully isolated from shifts in ...
Working Papers , Paper 00-2

Working Paper
Wealth Distribution and Retirement Preparation among Early Savers
Thompson, Jeffrey P.; Moore, Kevin B.; Jacobs, Lindsay; Llanes, Elizabeth; Volz, Alice Henriques (2020-02-01)
This paper develops a new combined-wealth measure by augmenting data on net worth from the Survey of Consumer Finances with estimates of defined benefit (DB) pension and expected Social Security wealth. We use this concept to explore retirement preparation among two groups of households in pre-retirement years (aged 40 through 49 and 50 through 59), and to explore the concentration of wealth. We find evidence of moderate, but rising, shortfalls in retirement preparation. We also show that including DB pension and Social Security wealth results in markedly lower measures of wealth ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-4

Working Paper
Has COVID Changed Consumer Payment Behavior?
Greene, Claire; Merry, Ellen A.; Stavins, Joanna (2021-10-01)
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused large changes in consumer spending, including how people make their payments. We use data from a nationally representative survey of U.S. consumers collected before COVID in 2018 and 2019 and during COVID in 2020 to analyze changes in consumer payment behavior during the pandemic. We find that compared with their payment behavior in 2019, consumers had shifted some of their purchases from in person to online by fall 2020, significantly lowered their use of cash for purchases, and shifted their person-to-person (P2P) payments away from paper (cash and checks). ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-12

Working Paper
The Business Cycle Mechanics of Search and Matching Models
Bernstein, Joshua; Throckmorton, Nathaniel A.; Richter, Alexander W. (2020-08-25)
This paper estimates a real business cycle model with unemployment driven by shocks to labor productivity and the job separation rate. We make two contributions. First, we develop a new identification scheme based on the matching elasticity that allows the model to perfectly match a range of labor market moments, including the volatilities of unemployment and vacancies. Second, we use our model to revisit the importance of shocks to the job separation rate and highlight how their correlation with labor productivity affects their transmission mechanism.
Working Papers , Paper 2026

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