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Briefing
Who Values Access to College?
Ionescu, Felicia; Vidangos, Ivan; Neelakantan, Urvi; Athreya, Kartik B. (2020-03)
A quantitative model of college enrollment suggests that the value of college access varies greatly across individuals. Forty percent place no value on the option to attend despite large public subsidies, while 25 percent would enroll even without the subsidies. In the model, redirecting public funds from those who attend college irrespective of subsidies to those who don’t attend even with subsidies both preserves college enrollment and improves overall outcomes. While these two groups are clearly visible only in the model, and not in the data, this analysis suggests that more-targeted ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue 20-03 , Pages 5

Briefing
Why Is Geographic Mobility Declining?
Neelakantan, Urvi; Jones, John Bailey; Li, Yue (2025-05-14)
Key TakeawaysIn the U.S., people of all ages are moving less than they did 30 years ago. In this article, we describe some of the leading economic explanations for this decline in geographic mobility.One set of explanations focuses on long-term trends such as population aging and expanding earnings opportunities for women.Another set of explanations focuses on changes in the geographic distribution of earnings, urban amenities and housing prices.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 25 , Issue 19

Briefing
What Does the FOMC's Shift in Fed Funds Rate Target Language Mean?
Wolman, Alexander L. (2021-07)
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 21 , Issue 22

Briefing
How Well Do Firms Retain Customers After Price Increases?
Gholami, Samira; Trachter, Nicholas (2023-05)
Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and the Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance developed a model that studies the optimal price setting of a firm. Using microdata from the U.S. retail industry, we document that customer turnover responds to price changes. Therefore, to keep customers, firms do not completely pass productivity shocks through to their prices. The price pass-through is heterogeneous across firms, with the most productive firms passing through more.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 23 , Issue 16

Briefing
Five Decades of Decline: U.S. Construction Sector Productivity
Yeh, Chen (2025-08-13)
Construction labor productivity fell by more than 30 percent from 1970 to 2020, while overall U.S. economic productivity doubled over the same period.Despite potential biases in price deflators, multiple studies confirm that the productivity decline is real, with physical measures like housing units per worker showing similar stagnation.Increasing land-use regulations may be a plausible cause for the decline, as more strict land-use regulations disincentivize construction companies from pursuing larger projects, keeping them relatively small. In addition, this reduces incentives for ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 25 , Issue 31

Briefing
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Service Sector Surveys: A User's Guide
Watson, Aileen; Price, David A. (2014-03)
The Richmond Fed conducts monthly surveys of business conditions in the manufacturing and service sectors of the Fifth Federal Reserve District. This article provides background information on these surveys and on other manufacturing and service sector surveys.The Richmond Fed conducts monthly surveys of business conditions in the manufacturing and service sectors of the Fifth Federal Reserve District. This article provides background information on these surveys and on other manufacturing and service sector surveys.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue Mar

Briefing
Putting the Beveridge Curve Back to Work
Rhodes, Karl; Lubik, Thomas A. (2014-09)
After the recession of 2007-09, the Beveridge curve seemed to shift significantly outward as the job-vacancy rate increased with no corresponding decrease in the unemployment rate. A new time-varying analysis of the Beveridge curve from the early 1950s through 2011 could lend support to the idea that skill mismatch due to technological change is the most likely driver of the curve's outward shifts, including its most recent movement. This analysis suggests that expansionary monetary policy has done little in recent years to reduce the unemployment rate.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue Sept

Briefing
Public and Private Labor Market Data: Insights From the Government Shutdown
Macaluso, Claudia (2026-02-04)
Private and public data are complements, not substitutes: Private sources offer speed and granularity, while government surveys provide representative benchmarks.Different data sources can measure similar but subtlety different things. For instance, JOLTS, ADP, RPLS and Gusto all measure "employment" but define it in different ways.These differences can lead to very different measurements, illustrated by two private data sources diverging by 100,000 jobs during the shutdown.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 26 , Issue 04

Briefing
Will the Pandemic Surge in Employer Business Formation Last?
Yeh, Chen (2025-01)
Business applications — or applications for employer identification numbers (EINs) — surged at the beginning of the pandemic, more than doubling prepandemic levels of the early 2000s. While not every entrepreneur filing for an EIN is guaranteed to hire workers, this surge in business applications was followed by a strong increase in employer startups more than a year later, as establishment openings rose 45 percent. Interestingly, this rise in employer startups has remained elevated compared to prepandemic levels, although recent evidence indicates that this increase has been wearing ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 25 , Issue 1

Briefing
Implications of Risks and Rewards in College Decisions
Athreya, Kartik B.; Price, David A. (2013-06)
Despite a large and growing earnings premium for college graduates, growth in college enrollment and especially college attainment in the United States has been quite slow. The labor market's apparent lack of responsiveness to the earnings premium may be driven in part by the risks that marginally prepared students face when they go to college. Failing or dropping out could leave them with low wealth, high debt, and low earnings. Recent research indicates that neither further increases in the earnings premium nor reductions in college costs are likely to produce large increases in the college ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue June

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