Search Results

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Briefing
When Are Tariffs Optimal?
Lubik, Thomas A. (2025-05-28)
Economic theory and historical evidence demonstrate that tariffs typically distort markets, lead to inefficient resource allocation, create deadweight losses and trigger harmful trade conflicts.While tariffs might improve a large country's terms of trade under strict theoretical conditions (market power, no retaliation), empirical evidence and real-world dynamics typically invalidate these assumptions.Repeated tariff impositions can escalate into trade wars, reducing economic welfare for all involved nations and emphasizing the importance of cooperative trade agreements.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 25 , Issue 21

Briefing
The Debt Brake: Unsafe at Any Speed?
Lubik, Thomas A. (2025-06-04)
The German debt brake is designed to prevent excessive accumulation of government debt. It is not just a simple fiscal policy rule but enshrined in the country's constitution to prevent political meddling.While it has served its stated purpose, it is also often blamed for Germany's lackluster economic performance in the form of low productivity and low GDP growth when compared to the other countries of the eurozone and especially the U.S.Theoretical research shows that fiscal rules like the debt brake can potentially destabilize economies or lead to real and nominal indeterminacy.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 25 , Issue 22

Briefing
Tariff Update: Incorporating Recent Decisions and Deals
Wyckoff, Acacia; Azzimonti, Marina (2025-06-06)
In March, we introduced a benchmark measure of the average effective tariff rate (AETR), using detailed trade data for 2024. We subsequently updated this analysis to reflect the tariff announcements on April 2 (commonly referred to as "Liberation Day") and April 9. This article provides another update by incorporating recent court decisions involving these tariff announcements as well as trade agreements with the U.K. and China, described later in this article in more detail.As in our previous analysis, we report AETRs by country and industry. While the industry-level AETR reflects the direct ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 25 , Issue 23

Briefing
Human Capital Investment: Would Higher-Order Skills Help Disconnected Youth?
Macaluso, Claudia (2025-06-23)
Human capital investments remain cost-effective well into young adulthood.A multidimensional approach to human capital development emphasizes developing self-reflection abilities and strategic thinking skills alongside traditional academic knowledge.Higher-order skills — like teamwork, critical thinking and self-control — offer high returns for disconnected youth and are well-compensated in the labor market.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 25 , Issue 24

Briefing
Economic Effects Everywhere All at Once
Ho, Paul; Anderson, Katharine; Robino, Nathan (2025-06-25)
The recent tariffs have brought global trade linkages to the forefront of academic and policy discussions. The global swings in the stock market and sentiment measures have emphasized how U.S. economic policy and conditions have important implications internationally.This global interconnectedness has been present for decades and spurred much academic research even prior to recent developments. Indeed, output and inflation have moved in parallel across countries for many years now. While economists continue to analyze and quantify the sources of this comovement, cross-country linkages are ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 25 , Issue 25

Briefing
How Private Information Distorts OTC Market Outcomes
Li, Lindsay; Trachter, Nicholas (2025-07-02)
Information frictions in over-the-counter markets reduce asset creation, trading volume and overall welfare compared to complete information economies.Because investors can't easily gauge others' private valuations of assets, potentially efficient trades are lost.Private information skews ownership and trading patterns, favoring high-valuation investors and reducing the role of middlemen.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 25 , Issue 26

Briefing
Rounding Up: The Impact of Phasing Out the Penny
Wang, Zhu; Wong, Russell (2025-07-09)
The U.S. government is expected to stop producing new pennies for circulation by early 2026. In 2024, the Treasury incurred a seigniorage loss of $85.3 million on penny production.As pennies phase out, businesses are likely to round cash transactions to the nearest 5 cents, resulting in a "rounding tax."Using data from the 2023 Diary of Consumer Payment Choice, we estimate that rounding tax could cost U.S. consumers approximately $6 million annually.Eliminating the nickel in addition to the penny could result in significantly higher rounding costs: up to $56 million per year for consumers.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 25 , Issue 27

Briefing
Impacts of Government Spending Changes on Local Economies
Waddell, Sonya Ravindranath; Pinto, Santiago (2025-07-15)
Local multipliers measure how an economic shock in a specific region (such as a change in federal government spending in that region) affects the local economy.Based on our survey of studies, a reasonable estimate range for local fiscal multipliers is:An income multiplier of 1.3-2.0, or an additional $1 of government spending increasing local GDP by 1.3 to 2.0 times.An employment multiplier of 10-30 jobs in the local economy for every additional $1 million in government spending (or $33,000 to $100,000 per job).
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 25 , Issue 28

Briefing
Why Predicted and Actual Tariff Rates Diverged in May 2025
Azzimonti, Marina (2025-08-01)
The predicted average effective tariff rate (AETR) for May 2025 was 17.5 percent, but the actual AETR was only 8.7 percent. This large gap motivated a systematic decomposition of the sources of divergence.Shifts in importer behavior — such as changes in sourcing strategies and product composition — account for part of the gap. In particular, imports from China and other high-tariff countries fell sharply, while imports from lower-tariff countries like Vietnam increased.The largest factor seems to be implementation frictions. Many country-product pairs that were expected to be tariffed ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 25 , Issue 29

Briefing
Forecasting U.S. Productivity
Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. (2025-08-06)
Trend aggregate labor productivity and TFP growth are expected to increase over the rest of the decade.The three largest subsectors of the service economy — namely professional business services; finance, insurance and real estate; and education and health care — are expected to continue growing in the medium term, and their idiosyncratic productivity is expected to play an increasingly important role in aggregate productivity.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 25 , Issue 30

show more (220)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY YEAR

FILTER BY BANK

FILTER BY SERIES

FILTER BY CONTENT TYPE

FILTER BY AUTHOR

FILTER BY JEL CLASSIFICATION