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Working Paper
Flexible Retirement and Optimal Taxation
Ndiaye, Abdoulaye; Yu, Zhixiu (2025-06-23)
Raising the retirement age is a common policy response when social security schemes face fiscal pressures. We develop and estimate a dynamic life cycle model to study optimal retirement and tax policy when individuals face health shocks and income risk and make endogenous retirement decisions. The model incorporates key features of Social Security, Medicare, income taxation, and savings incentives and distinguishes three channels through which health affects retirement: nonconvexities in labor supply due to health-dependent fixed costs of working, earnings reductions, and mortality risk. We ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 113

Working Paper
Job Transformation, Specialization, and the Labor Market Effects of AI
Mann, Lukas F.; Freund, Lukas B. (2025-09-03)
Who will gain and who will lose as AI automates tasks? While much of the discourse focuses on job displacement, we show that job transformation—a shift in the task content of jobs—creates large and heterogeneous earnings effects. We develop a quantitative, task-based model where occupations bundle multiple tasks and workers possessing heterogeneous portfolios of task-specific skills select into occupations by comparative advantage. Automation shifts the relative importance of tasks within each occupation, inducing wage effects that we characterize analytically. To quantify these effects, ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 114

Working Paper
Re‐assessing the Spatial Mismatch Hypothesis
Card, David; Rothstein, Jesse; Yi, Moises (2025-10-31)
We use detailed location information from the Longitudinal Employer‐Household Dynamics (LEHD) database to develop new evidence on the effects of spatial mismatch on the relative earnings of Black workers in large US cities. We classify workplaces by the size of the pay premiums they offer in a two‐way fixed effects model, providing a simple metric for defining “good” jobs. We show that: (a) Black workers earn nearly the same average wage premiums as whites; (b) in most cities Black workers live closer to jobs, and closer to good jobs, than do whites; (c) Black workers typically ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 116

Working Paper
Designing Cash Transfers in the Presence of Children’s Human Capital Formation
Mullins, Joseph (2025-10-31)
This paper finds that accounting for the human capital development of children has a quantitatively large effect on the true costs and benefits of providing cash assistance to single mothers in the United States. A dynamic model of work, welfare participation, and parental investment in children introduces a framework for calculating costs and benefits when individuals respond to incentives. The model provides a tractable outcome equation in which a policy’s effect on child skills can be understood through its impact on two economic resources in the household – time and money – and the ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 117

Working Paper
The Landscape of Parental Leave-Taking in the United States
Tannenbaum, Daniel; Jack, Rebecca; Timpe, Brenden (2025-11-18)
This paper leverages new data linkages to provide the most detailed account to date of the length and timing of parental leave in the United States. Most mothers remain employed throughout pregnancy and their child’s first year of life, but the average maternity leave lasts only 7.2 weeks. Fathers take less than 1 week on average. Despite a steady increase in benefits, average leave duration has declined in recent decades. Our results highlight uneven access and incomplete take-up of parental leave benefits and suggest a modest rise in leave would lead to economically meaningful ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 118

Working Paper
America’s Rise in Human Capital Mobility
Brookes Gray, Harriet; Althoff, Lukas; Reichardt, Hugo (2025-11-20)
How did the US become a land of opportunity? We show that the country’s pioneering role in mass education was key. Unlike previous research, which has focused on father-son income correlations, we incorporate both parents in a new measure of intergenerational mobility that considers multiple inputs, including mothers’ and fathers’ human capital. To estimate mobility despite limitations in historical data, we introduce a latent variable method and construct a representative linked panel that includes women. Our findings reveal that human capital mobility rose sharply from 1850 to 1950, ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 119

Working Paper
Quantifying Racial Disparities Using Consecutive Employment Spells
Sorkin, Isaac (2025-11-24)
This paper develops a framework to quantify racial disparities in earnings and employment that are not plausibly due to differences in productivity. Over an employment cycle, employers learn about worker productivity and workers move to more productive and less prejudiced employers. I use implications of this behavior to match high-tenure Black and white workers on unobservables. I look at matched pairs who lose their jobs in a mass layoff. Gaps in earnings and separations between these workers in their next jobs are not plausibly due to differences in productivity. Using U.S. data, earnings ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 120

Working Paper
Assessing Maximum Employment
Fujita, Shigeru; Foote, Christopher L.; Michaud, Amanda M.; Montes, Joshua (2025-11-25)
We suggest a core set of indicators for evaluating the position of the labor market relative to maximum employment. The unemployment rate remains the key indicator of the cyclical position of the labor market, as it is time-tested, is highly correlated with other indicators, and has practical measurement advantages. But other indicators can provide complementary evidence to get a fuller picture of the labor market. A joint analysis of job vacancies and unemployment in a Beveridge curve diagram is helpful when structural shocks affect the labor market and when the labor market is very tight, ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 121

Working Paper
Cohabitation, Child Development, and College Costs
Obermeier, Tim; Adamopoulou, Effrosyni; Hannusch, Anne; Kopecky, Karen A. (2025-11-26)
US college-educated couples with children marry at higher rates than those without a college degree. We argue that marriage, which entails lower separation risk and more equitable asset division if separation occurs, provides insurance to the lower-earning spouse, facilitating child investment. Investing in children is more valuable for college-educated couples, who are more likely to send their children to college. Using an OLG model of marriage, cohabitation, wealth accumulation, and educational investments where college is costly and completion is risky, we find that high college costs ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 122

Working Paper
Intergenerational Welfare Assessments
Schaab, Andreas; Dávila, Eduardo; Barcons, Sergi (2026-01-16)
This paper studies welfare assessments in economies with rich demographics. We introduce the notion of demographically disconnected economies, those with no date at which all individuals are concurrently alive. We identify the unique class of units that always enables meaningful welfare comparisons in such economies: those based on perpetual consumption, that is, consumption at all dates. Using these units, we uncover a novel possibility: feasible perturbations of Pareto efficient allocations can yield Kaldor-Hicks efficiency gains. We also introduce a decomposition that attributes ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 123

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