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Journal Article
Do Local Economic Conditions Influence FOMC Votes?
Bobrov, Anton E.; Ulate, Mauricio; Kamdar, Rupal; Poduri, Aditi; Paulson, Caroline M. (2025-06-02)
Monetary policy in the United States is determined by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a decisionmaking body that includes regional representation. Evidence shows that the economic conditions in their respective regions have influenced how presidents of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Districts voted at the FOMC meetings in past decades. Specifically, a 1 percentage point higher unemployment rate in a District relative to the national average is associated with a 9 percentage point higher probability of dissenting in favor of looser policy during the FOMC vote.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2025 , Issue 13 , Pages 5

Journal Article
Is Demand or Supply More Important for Inflation?
Lansing, Kevin J. (2025-06-23)
Simulations using a Phillips curve-type relationship provide insights into the importance of demand versus supply for inflation over different periods. The decade of low inflation after the Great Recession was driven mainly by supply forces. Given that monetary policy operates to influence demand but not supply, this result helps to account for the persistent undershooting of the Fed’s 2% inflation goal during these years. In contrast, the period of high inflation during the pandemic era was driven mainly by demand forces.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2025 , Issue 14 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Dynamic Central Bank Communication
Daly, Mary C. (2025-06-30)
Central banks have a responsibility to share information in ways that improve the public’s understanding. This communication must be consistent enough that people can follow, and dynamic enough that it can adjust to the circumstances that are faced. Federal Reserve communications over the past 30 years have evolved to become significantly more transparent. The following is adapted from remarks presented by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco at the Western Economic Association International 100th Annual Conference in San Francisco on June 22.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2025 , Issue 15 , Pages 6

Journal Article
The Zero Lower Bound Remains a Medium-Term Risk
Mertens, Thomas M.; Cho, Sophia; Williams, John C. (2025-07-07)
Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates. The information from this statistical distribution can help measure the perceived risk of interest rates returning to the zero lower bound in the future. The risk varies over time, driven mainly by the expected level of interest rates. At longer forecast horizons, a higher risk of returning to the lower bound primarily reflects a higher amount of uncertainty. Currently, the perceived risk appears slim over the next few years but is significant at longer horizons.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2025 , Issue 16 , Pages 6

Journal Article
The Economic Implications of Tariff Increases
Ulate, Mauricio; Singh, Aayush; Poduri, Aditi; Paulson, Caroline M. (2025-07-14)
Trade policy in the United States has been in flux in recent months. A theoretical analysis of recent increases in U.S. tariffs, including potential retaliatory tariffs by other countries, suggests a resulting drop in overall U.S. employment, although manufacturing employment increases. Results also indicate a decline in overall real income for the United States of around 0.4%, although this number masks important variation across U.S. states.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2025 , Issue 16 , Pages 5

Journal Article
Tracking Business Sentiment in the Western United States
Abdelrahman, Hamza; Oliveira, Luiz E.; Poduri, Aditi (2025-08-11)
Information the San Francisco Fed collects from businesses and community sources for the Beige Book provides timely insights into economic activity at both the national and regional levels. Two new indexes based on Beige Book questionnaire responses track business sentiment across the western United States. The indexes track data on economic activity and inflation, serving as early indicators of official data releases and helping improve near-term forecasting accuracy. The latest index readings suggest weakening economic growth and intensifying inflationary pressures over the coming months.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2025 , Issue 18 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Tracking Labor Market Stress
dup Singh, Sanjay R.; Jordà, Òscar; Garimella, Rohit (2025-08-18)
State-level unemployment claims can provide a real-time measure of national labor market conditions and the overall state of the economy. A rapid and widespread buildup of stress in state labor markets usually signals the start of a recession. In mid-2024, some widely followed indicators of recession risk flashed red. However, analysis of state-level data indicates that labor market declines were not as widespread as they had been in previous recessions. Applying this analysis to the latest data suggests that the labor market has remained stable through mid-2025.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2025 , Issue 19 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Will Trade Uncertainty Boost Automation?
Leduc, Sylvain; Baskar Prabhakar, Deepika; Firooz, Hamid; Liu, Zheng (2025-09-02)
Recent surges in trade policy uncertainty highlight the fragility of global supply chains, prompting businesses to consider reshoring—moving production from abroad to domestic locations. Reshoring can be costly, creating incentives for businesses to automate. Evidence suggests that businesses facing heightened trade policy uncertainty in industries more exposed to international trade reshore more and automate more than those that are less exposed to trade. Automation appears to help mitigate the otherwise negative effects of trade policy uncertainty on production and labor productivity.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2025 , Issue 20 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Industry Decline and Household Finances
Blonz, Joshua; Roth Tran, Brigitte; Siegel, Sarah; Zhao, Cindy; Troland, Erin (2025-09-22)
Technological innovations that displace demand for local producers can hurt finances for households in the same area. Demand for Appalachian coal declined precipitously between 2011 and 2018 following a technology-induced shift in electricity generation from coal to natural gas. This coal decline decreased people’s credit scores in that region and increased their credit utilization rates, credit card delinquencies, third-party collections, and bankruptcies. Credit scores fell the most for households that were already near the subprime threshold, where small changes can have large impacts on ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2025 , Issue 21 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Steady Through Change: In Policy, Business, and Life
Daly, Mary C. (2025-09-29)
Moving steadily through change takes intention, commitment to one’s goals, collecting evidence, and deciding. And most of all, it takes a commitment to be willing to repeat the process of anchoring, assessing, and deciding each time a new change comes along. The following is adapted from remarks presented by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco at the Spencer Fox Eccles Convocation at the David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, on September 24.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2025 , Issue 22 , Pages 4

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