Search Results
Working Paper
Forecasting U.S. Economic Activity with a Small Information Set
Cooper, Daniel H.; Olivei, Giovanni P.; Rhodenhiser, Hannah
(2025-06-01)
We provide a parsimonious setup for forecasting U.S. GDP growth and the unemployment rate based on a few fundamental drivers. This setup yields forecasts that are reasonably accurate compared with private-sector and Federal Reserve forecasts over the 1984–2019 and post COVID-19 pandemic periods. This result is achieved by jointly estimating the processes for GDP growth and the unemployment rate, with the constraint that GDP and unemployment follow Okun’s law in first differences. This setup can be easily extended to replace the variables in the information set with factors that might ...
Working Papers
, Paper 25-4
Working Paper
Technological innovation in mortgage underwriting and the growth in credit, 1985–2015
Foote, Christopher L.; Loewenstein, Lara; Willen, Paul S.
(2019-11-01)
The application of information technology to finance, or ?fintech,? is expected to revolutionize many aspects of borrowing and lending in the future, but technology has been reshaping consumer and mortgage lending for many years. During the 1990s, computerization allowed mortgage lenders to reduce loan-processing times and largely replace human-based assessments of credit risk with default predictions generated by sophisticated empirical models. Debt-to-income ratios at origination add little to the predictive power of these models, so the new automated underwriting systems allowed higher ...
Working Papers
, Paper 19-11
Working Paper
Currency portfolios and nominal exchange rates in a dual currency search economy
Craig, Ben R.; Waller, Christopher J.
(1999)
The authors analyze a dual-currency search model in which agents may hold multiple units of both currencies. They study equilibria in which the two currencies are identical and equilibria in which the two currencies differ according to the magnitude of the "inflation tax" risk associated with each. When one currency has the right amount of risk, equilibria exist in which the safe currency trades for multiple units of the risky one (pure currency exchange). As a result, the steady state has a distribution of nominal exchange rates. The mean and variance of this distribution typically change ...
Working Papers (Old Series)
, Paper 9916
Working Paper
A Theory of Intrinsic Inflation Persistence
Van Zandweghe, Willem; Kurozumi, Takushi
(2019-08-29)
We propose a novel theory of intrinsic inflation persistence by introducing trend inflation and variable elasticity of demand in a model with staggered price and wage setting. Under nonzero trend inflation, the variable elasticity generates intrinsic persistence in inflation through a measure of price dispersion stemming from staggered price setting. It also introduces intrinsic persistence in wage inflation under staggered wage setting, which affects price inflation. With the theory we show that inflation exhibits a persistent, hump-shaped response to a monetary policy shock. We also show ...
Working Papers
, Paper 19-16
Working Paper
The Effect of Component Disaggregation on Measures of the Median and Trimmed-Mean CPI
Garciga, Christian; Verbrugge, Randal J.; Zaman, Saeed
(2024-01-04)
For decades, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (FRBC) has produced median and trimmed-mean consumer price index (CPI) measures. These have proven useful in various contexts, such as forecasting and understanding post-COVID inflation dynamics. Revisions to the FRBC methodology have historically involved increasing the level of disaggregation in the CPI components, which has improved accuracy. Thus, it may seem logical that further disaggregation would continue to enhance its accuracy. However, we theoretically demonstrate that this may not necessarily be the case. We then explore the ...
Working Papers
, Paper 24-02
Working Paper
The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Hur, Sewon; Mau, Ron; Mertens, Karel; Richter, Alexander W.; Zhou, Xiaoqing
(2024-10-01)
The U.S. experienced an extraordinary postpandemic surge in unauthorized immigration. This paper combines administrative data on border encounters and immigration court records with household survey data to document two new facts about these immigrants: They tend to be hand-to-mouth consumers and low-skilled workers that complement the existing workforce. We build these features into a model with capital, household heterogeneity and population growth to study the inflationary effects of this episode. Contrary to the popular view, we find little effect on inflation, as the increase in supply ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2407
Working Paper
Total Recall? Evaluating the Macroeconomic Knowledge of Large Language Models
Crane, Leland D.; Karra, Akhil; Soto, Paul E.
(2025-06-25)
We evaluate the ability of large language models (LLMs) to estimate historical macroeconomic variables and data release dates. We find that LLMs have precise knowledge of some recent statistics, but performance degrades as we go farther back in history. We highlight two particularly important kinds of recall errors: mixing together first print data with subsequent revisions (i.e., smoothing across vintages) and mixing data for past and future reference periods (i.e., smoothing within vintages). We also find that LLMs can often recall individual data release dates accurately, but aggregating ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2025-044
Working Paper
Documentation of the Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-based (EDO) model of the U.S. economy: 2010 version
Laforte, Jean-Philippe; Kiley, Michael T.; Chung, Hess T.
(2010)
This paper provides documentation for a large-scale estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy--the Federal Reserve Board's Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-based (FRB/EDO) model project. The model can be used to address a wide range of practical policy questions on a routine basis. The paper discusses the model's specification, estimated parameters, and key properties.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2010-29
Working Paper
Efficient computation of stochastic coefficients models
Swamy, P. A. V. B.; Chang, I-Lok; Hallahan, Charles
(1990)
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 132
Working Paper
Does distance matter in banking?
Wolken, John D.; Brevoort, Kenneth P.
(2008)
Deregulation and technological change have reduced the transactions costs that led to the dominance of local financial service suppliers, leading some to question if distance still matters in banking. This debate has been particularly acute in small business banking, where transactions costs are believed to be particularly high. This paper provides a detailed review of the literature on distance in banking markets, highlighting the reasons why geographic proximity is believed to be important and examining the changes that may have affected its importance. Relying on new data from the 2003 ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2008-34
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G50 32 items
H25 32 items
O31 32 items
D63 31 items
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C10 30 items
C68 30 items
C82 30 items
D18 30 items
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C36 28 items
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D40 26 items
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C26 15 items
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C54 12 items
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H3 12 items
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FILTER BY Keywords
Monetary policy 953 items
Business cycles 465 items
Econometric models 446 items
Inflation (Finance) 420 items
Interest rates 368 items
Prices 259 items
Foreign exchange rates 253 items
Forecasting 239 items
monetary policy 215 items
Unemployment 198 items
Wages 197 items
COVID-19 191 items
Risk 191 items
Productivity 180 items
Labor market 160 items
International trade 158 items
Taxation 153 items
Bank loans 151 items
Fiscal policy 151 items
Financial markets 149 items
Money 139 items
Macroeconomics 137 items
Consumption (Economics) 130 items
Banks and banking 126 items
Credit 118 items
Financial crises 118 items
time series analysis 118 items
Mortgages 115 items
Inflation 113 items
Money supply 112 items
inflation 111 items
Bank capital 106 items
Labor supply 106 items
International finance 105 items
Stock - Prices 105 items
Stock market 101 items
Investments 99 items
Liquidity (Economics) 98 items
Debt 97 items
Employment (Economic theory) 96 items
Phillips curve 93 items
Employment 92 items
Housing 92 items
Foreign exchange 90 items
Economic development 89 items
Japan 88 items
Bankruptcy 87 items
Monetary policy - United States 86 items
Income 83 items
Payment systems 83 items
Rational expectations (Economic theory) 83 items
Bank failures 82 items
Capital 82 items
fiscal policy 81 items
Asset pricing 79 items
Consumer behavior 76 items
Monetary Policy 76 items
Technology 76 items
Bank supervision 75 items
Regional economics 75 items
Bank mergers 73 items
Banks and banking, Central 73 items
Financial institutions 73 items
Trade 73 items
Saving and investment 72 items
Mortgage loans 71 items
unemployment 70 items
Education 68 items
Uncertainty 68 items
Consumer credit 67 items
business cycles 67 items
Econometrics 66 items
Human capital 66 items
Risk management 66 items
Wealth 66 items
inequality 66 items
Deposit insurance 65 items
Federal Reserve 65 items
Financial stability 65 items
Inequality 63 items
Equilibrium (Economics) 59 items
Bonds 57 items
Vector autoregression 56 items
Competition 55 items
Economic forecasting 55 items
Manufactures 55 items
Monetary theory 55 items
Great Recession 54 items
Production (Economic theory) 54 items
Welfare 54 items
Bank reserves 52 items
Credit cards 52 items
Income distribution 51 items
liquidity 51 items
Corporations - Finance 50 items
Housing - Prices 50 items
Liquidity 49 items
Stocks 49 items
Capital movements 47 items
Labor productivity 47 items
Social security 47 items
productivity 47 items
Inventories 46 items
Banks and banking - Costs 45 items
China 45 items
Small business 45 items
consumption 45 items
Incomplete Markets 43 items
international trade 43 items
Bank competition 42 items
Banking market 42 items
Exports 42 items
Recessions 42 items
human capital 41 items
Banks 40 items
Developing countries 40 items
Mexico 40 items
Banking 39 items
Gross domestic product 39 items
Systemic risk 39 items
employment 39 items
forecasting 39 items
Bank deposits 38 items
inflation expectations 38 items
zero lower bound 38 items
Foreclosure 37 items
Foreign exchange - Law and legislation 37 items
Regulation 37 items
Securities 37 items
Capital market 36 items
Futures 36 items
options 36 items
Consumption 35 items
Insurance 35 items
Derivative securities 34 items
Federal Open Market Committee 34 items
Federal funds rate 34 items
Investments, Foreign 34 items
financial frictions 34 items
Default 33 items
Dollar, American 33 items
Germany 33 items
Ramsey Problem 33 items
Savings and loan associations 33 items
labor supply 33 items
uncertainty 33 items
Bank holding companies 32 items
Keynesian economics 32 items
capital asset pricing model 32 items
interest rates 32 items
Balance of payments 31 items
Economics 31 items
Default (Finance) 30 items
Federal funds market (United States) 30 items
Government securities 30 items
Retirement 30 items
wages 30 items
welfare 30 items
Money theory 29 items
consumer credit 29 items
financial crisis 29 items
financial stability 29 items
Expenditures, Public 28 items
Financial crisis 28 items
Immigrants 28 items
Income tax 28 items
Poverty 28 items
banks 28 items
Banking structure 27 items
Bayesian estimation 27 items
Business Cycles 27 items
Covid-19 27 items
Heterogeneous Agents 27 items
Petroleum industry and trade 27 items
Real-time data 27 items
Subprime mortgage 27 items
job search 27 items
misallocation 27 items
Capital investments 26 items
Economies of scale 26 items
Heterogeneous agents 26 items
economic conditions - United States 26 items
heterogeneity 26 items
heterogeneous agents 26 items
Contracts 25 items
Depressions 25 items
Emerging markets 25 items
Federal Reserve System 25 items
Financial services industry 25 items
Inflation targeting 25 items
Open market operations 25 items
Sovereign default 25 items
Tariff 25 items
Volatility 25 items
pandemic 25 items
unemployment insurance 25 items
Asia 24 items
Asset-backed financing 24 items
Game theory 24 items
Globalization 24 items
Household finance 24 items
Investment 24 items
Mortgage 24 items
Pensions 24 items
Research and development 24 items
education 24 items
high-frequency data 24 items
housing 24 items
Demography 23 items
Fiscal Policy 23 items
Labor mobility 23 items
Loans 23 items
Markets 23 items
Statistics 23 items
Stock exchanges 23 items
Unemployment insurance 23 items
Zero lower bound 23 items
bond markets 23 items
financial crises 23 items
forward guidance 23 items
local projections 23 items
mortgages 23 items
Bank lending 22 items
Corporate bonds 22 items
Effective lower bound 22 items
Emigration and immigration 22 items
Great Britain 22 items
Gross national product 22 items
Households - Economic aspects 22 items
International economic relations 22 items
labor markets 22 items
mortgage 22 items
Clearinghouses (Banking) 21 items
Demand for money 21 items
Hedging (Finance) 21 items
Industries 21 items
Inflation expectations 21 items
Recession 21 items
climate change 21 items
credit cards 21 items
house prices 21 items
small business finance 21 items
Balance of trade 20 items
Business enterprises 20 items
Debts, Public 20 items
Discount window 20 items
FOMC 20 items
Forward guidance 20 items
Latin America 20 items
Learning 20 items
Macroeconomics - Econometric models 20 items
Mutual funds 20 items
Patents 20 items
Population 20 items
Real property 20 items
Surveys 20 items
credit supply 20 items
discretion 20 items
exchange rates 20 items
firm dynamics 20 items
government debt 20 items
investment 20 items
machine learning 20 items
quantitative easing 20 items
state finances 20 items
systemic risk 20 items
taxation 20 items
Automobile industry and trade 19 items
Business cycle 19 items
Discrimination 19 items
Discrimination in mortgage loans 19 items
Economic conditions 19 items
Education - Economic aspects 19 items
Global financial crisis 19 items
Housing - Finance 19 items
Industrial productivity 19 items
Information theory 19 items
Macroprudential policy 19 items
bank lending 19 items
banking 19 items
credit spreads 19 items
fintech 19 items
innovation 19 items
real-time data 19 items
technology adoption 19 items
trade 19 items
Bayesian methods 18 items
Branch banks 18 items
Commercial real estate 18 items
Computers 18 items
Consumer price indexes 18 items
Entrepreneurship 18 items
Finance 18 items
Free trade 18 items
Information technology 18 items
Medicaid 18 items
Misallocation 18 items
Pricing 18 items
Rate of return 18 items
Technology - Economic aspects 18 items
Treasury bills 18 items
default 18 items
expectations 18 items
financial distress 18 items
immigration 18 items
mobility 18 items
recession 18 items
regulation 18 items
vacancies 18 items
Argentina 17 items
Bank management 17 items
Banks and banking, International 17 items
Budget deficits 17 items
Cities and towns 17 items
Climate change 17 items
Collateral 17 items
Corporate governance 17 items
Debts, External 17 items
East Asia 17 items
Economic growth 17 items
Economic policy 17 items
Government-sponsored enterprises 17 items
Hours of labor 17 items
Human Capital 17 items
Human behavior 17 items
Imports 17 items
Machine learning 17 items
Minimum wage 17 items
Mortgage-backed securities 17 items
Pacific Area 17 items
Power resources - Prices 17 items
Price levels 17 items
Stochastic analysis 17 items
Taylor's rule 17 items
fiscal multipliers 17 items
migration 17 items
Beveridge curve 16 items
Cointegration 16 items
Credit supply 16 items
DSGE models 16 items
European Economic Community 16 items
Expectations 16 items
Financial Frictions 16 items
Financial crises - Asia 16 items
Growth 16 items
Home ownership 16 items
Incomplete information 16 items
North American Free Trade Agreement 16 items
Over-the-counter markets 16 items
Pandemic 16 items
Petroleum products - Prices 16 items
Portfolio management 16 items
Search 16 items
Taylor rule 16 items
Unconventional monetary policy 16 items
capital flows 16 items
central banks 16 items
credit constraints 16 items
emerging markets 16 items
growth 16 items
identification 16 items
policy 16 items
Arbitrage 15 items
Bank Lending 15 items
Bank investments 15 items
Bank profits 15 items
Bank stocks 15 items
Bayesian VARs 15 items
Bayesian inference 15 items
Checks 15 items
Credit risk 15 items
Crises 15 items
Economic indicators 15 items
Geography 15 items
Great Depression 15 items
Homeownership 15 items
Housing policy 15 items
Internet 15 items
Mobility 15 items
Monetary policy - Japan 15 items
Sovereign Debt 15 items
Structural VAR 15 items
Unemployment Insurance 15 items
household finances 15 items
incomplete markets 15 items
risk 15 items
stochastic volatility 15 items
unconventional monetary policy 15 items
volatility 15 items
Aggregate risk 14 items
Automated tellers 14 items
Canada 14 items
Community development 14 items
Consolidation and merger of corporations 14 items
Corporations 14 items
Credit unions 14 items
Economic stabilization 14 items
European Monetary System (Organization) 14 items
Heterogeneity 14 items
Housing boom 14 items
Immigration 14 items
Job Search 14 items
Korea 14 items
Labor force participation 14 items
Labor turnover 14 items
Labor unions 14 items
Medical care 14 items
Medicare 14 items
Monetary policy transmission 14 items
Mortgages and credit 14 items
Optimal taxation 14 items
Phillips Curve 14 items
Public policy 14 items
Regression analysis 14 items
Seasonal variations (Economics) 14 items
debt 14 items
income inequality 14 items
inference 14 items
insurance 14 items
intellectual property rights 14 items
intermediation 14 items
macroprudential policy 14 items
student loans 14 items
time-consistency 14 items
trade policy 14 items
Banks and banking - History 13 items
Banks and banking - Japan 13 items
Bayesian Estimation 13 items
Bayesian statistical decision theory 13 items
Credit scoring systems 13 items
Delinquency 13 items
Discount 13 items
Discretion 13 items
Economic history 13 items
Financial literacy 13 items
Flow of funds 13 items
GDP growth 13 items
Gender 13 items
Indexation (Economics) 13 items
Industrial location 13 items
Information 13 items
Insurance, Health 13 items
Interbank market 13 items
Machine Learning 13 items
Monetary policy implementation 13 items
Moral hazard 13 items
R&D 13 items
Retail trade 13 items
Securitization 13 items
Spillovers 13 items
Stocks - Rate of return 13 items
Swaps (Finance) 13 items
bank runs 13 items
bankruptcy 13 items
consumer payments 13 items
consumer spending 13 items
convergence 13 items
deficit 13 items
financial development 13 items
financial intermediation 13 items
financial markets 13 items
income 13 items
institutional design 13 items
political frictions 13 items
reallocation 13 items
search 13 items
search frictions 13 items
spillovers 13 items
structural breaks 13 items
technological change 13 items
technological innovations 13 items
technology diffusion 13 items
Aging 12 items
Asymmetric loss function 12 items
Basel III 12 items
Business cycles - Econometric models 12 items
Capital flows 12 items
Community banks 12 items
Consumer Credit 12 items
Country Risk 12 items
Debit cards 12 items
Deficit financing 12 items
Displaced workers 12 items
Electronic funds transfers 12 items
Finance, Public 12 items
Income inequality 12 items
Industrial capacity 12 items
Infrastructure (Economics) 12 items
Markov-switching 12 items
Medical care, Cost of 12 items
Microeconomics 12 items
Municipal finance 12 items
Nowcasting 12 items
Search and matching 12 items
Stablecoins 12 items
Stock returns 12 items
Student loans 12 items
Symmetric loss function 12 items
asset pricing 12 items
demographics 12 items
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