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Report
Modeling uncertainty: predictive accuracy as a proxy for predictive confidence
This paper evaluates current strategies for the empirical modeling of forecast behavior. In particular, we focus on the reliability of using proxies from time series models of heteroskedasticity to describe changes in predictive confidence. We address this issue by examining the relationship between ex post forecast errors and ex ante measures of forecast uncertainty from data on inflation forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. The results provide little evidence of a strong link between observed heteroskedasticity in the consensus forecast errors and forecast uncertainty. ...
Pandemic Pushed the U.S. into Recession … and Hourly Wages Rose?
The onset of COVID-19 in spring 2020 prompted an unprecedented rapid rise in the unemployment rate. However, a popular and widely cited wage measure—average hourly earnings (AHE)—rose sharply as the health crisis grew.
Journal Article
Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2020 Conference Summary
To provide insights into the processes that drive inflationary dynamics, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland holds an annual conference on the topic of inflation: the Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics series. The 2020 installment of the conference was held on May 21-22, 2020. This Commentary summarizes the papers at the conference, which broadly fell into four categories: (1) empirical Phillips curves, (2) networks and Phillips curves, (3) expectations formation, and (4) price-setting behavior and inflation.
Journal Article
Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2020 CEBRA Annual Meeting Session Summary
The Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research sponsored a session on inflation dynamics at the 2020 CEBRA annual meeting. The presentations focused on inflation expectations and firms’ price-setting behavior. This Economic Commentary summarizes the papers presented during the session.
Journal Article
How does slack influence inflation?
Economists have long studied the relationship between resource utilization and inflation. Theory suggests that when firms use labor and capital very intensively, production costs tend to rise and firms have more scope to pass those cost increases along in the form of higher product prices. In contrast, when that level of intensity is relatively low?that is, when the economy is operating with slack?production costs tend to rise more slowly (or even fall) and firms have less scope for raising prices. Empirical evidence, however, has varied concerning the exact nature of the relationship between ...
Working Paper
A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area
This paper examines point and density forecasts of real GDP growth, inflation and unemployment from the European Central Bank?s Survey of Professional Forecasters. We present individual uncertainty measures and introduce individual point- and density-based measures of disagreement. The data indicate substantial heterogeneity and persistence in respondents? uncertainty and disagreement, with uncertainty associated with prominent respondent effects and disagreement associated with prominent time effects. We also examine the co-movement between uncertainty and disagreement and find an ...
Discussion Paper
Drilling Down into Core Inflation: Goods versus Services
Among the measures of core inflation used to monitor the inflation outlook, the series excluding food and energy prices is probably the best known and most closely followed by policymakers and the public. While the conventional ?ex food and energy? measure is a composite of the price changes of a large number of different products and services, almost all models developed to explain and forecast its behavior do not distinguish between the goods and services categories. Is the distinction important? Here, we highlight the different behavior and determinants of goods inflation and services ...
What’s Up (or Not Up) with Wages?
This is the third of three articles that talk about the natural rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate that would prevail in a “neutral” labor market after removing all movement due to the business cycle.
Report
Early contract renegotiation: An analysis of U.S. labor contracts from 1970 to 1995
This paper examines the ex post flexibility of U.S. labor contracts during the 1970-95 period by investigating whether unanticipated changes in inflation increase the likelihood of a contract being renegotiated prior to its expiration. We find strong empirical support for this hypothesis. Specifically, our results indicate that renegotiations are triggered principally by large and infrequent price shocks of either sign. When combined with evidence that ex ante contract durations are shorter during episodes of increased inflation uncertainty, our results suggest that these contracts are ...
Working Paper
Surveys of Professionals
This chapter provides an overview of surveys of professional forecasters, with a focus on the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters and the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters. A distinguishing feature of these surveys is that they collect point and density forecasts and make the data publicly available. We discuss their structure, issues involved in using the data, and the construction of measures such as disagreement and uncertainty at the aggregate and individual levels. Our review also summarizes the findings of studies exploring issues such as the alignment of ...