Journal Article
Tracking productivity in real time
Abstract: Because volatile short-term movements in productivity growth obscure the underlying trend, shifts in this trend may go unrecognized for years - a lag that can lead to policy mistakes and hence economic instability. This study develops a model for tracking productivity that brings in additional variables to help reveal the trend. The model's success is evident in its ability to detect changes in trend productivity within a year or two of their occurrence. Currently, the model indicates that the underlying trend remains strong despite recent weak productivity data.
Keywords: Econometric models; Industrial productivity - Measurement; Economic policy;
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Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Part of Series: Current Issues in Economics and Finance
Publication Date: 2006
Volume: 12
Issue: Nov
Order Number: 8