Journal Article
The cyclical behavior of prices and employee compensation
Webb, Roy H. (2003-01)
Economic Quarterly , Volume 89 , Issue Win , Pages 69-83

Working Paper
On predicting the stage of the business cycle
Webb, Roy H. (1987)
Macroeconomic forecasts are traditionally stated as point estimates. Retrospective evaluations of forecasts usually assume that the cost of a forecast error increases with the arithmetic magnitude of the error. As a result, measures such as the root-mean-square error (RSME) or the mean absolute error (MAE) are most often used to summarize forecast performance. ; An earlier version of this paper, "The Business Cycle and Economic Forecasting," was presented to the Western Economic Association in July 1986, and to the Federal Reserve System Research Committee on Business Analysis in November ...
Working Paper , Paper 87-01

Journal Article
Two approaches to macroeconomic forecasting
Webb, Roy H. (1999-07)
Economic Quarterly , Issue Sum , Pages 23-40

Working Paper
Defining and improving the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts : contributions from a VAR model
Lupoletti, William M.; Webb, Roy H. (1984)
Thirty years ago it appeared that the best strategy for improving economic forecasts was to build bigger, more detailed models. As the costs of computing plummeted, considerable detail was added to models and more elaborate statistical techniques became feasible.
Working Paper , Paper 84-06

Working Paper
Inadequate tests of the rationality of expectations
Webb, Roy H. (1984)
In several recent articles, authors have regressed actual values of macroeconomic aggregates on predicted values and claimed that they were testing the rationality of expectations. This paper interprets those regressions as testing a joint hypothesis of imperfect information and rational expectations. An empirical method is proposed to separate the components of the joint hypothesis. Predictions from two major forecasting services are examined, and results are found that are consistent with rational expectations but inconsistent with the joint hypothesis. It is therefore argued that many ...
Working Paper , Paper 84-07

Journal Article
National productivity statistics
Webb, Roy H. (1998-01)
Economic Quarterly , Issue Win , Pages 45-64

Working Paper
Forecasts of inflation for VAR models
Webb, Roy H. (1994)
Why are forecasts of inflation from VAR models so much worse then their forecasts of real variables? This paper documents that relatively poor performance, and finds that the price equation of a VAR model fitted to U.S. postwar data is poorly specified. Statistical work by other authors has found that coefficients in such price equations may not be constant. Based on specific monetary actions, two changes in monetary policy regimes are proposed. Accounting for those two shifts yields significantly more accurate forecasts and lessens the evidence of misspecification.
Working Paper , Paper 94-08

Journal Article
Personal saving behavior and real economic activity
Webb, Roy H. (1993-04)
Economic Quarterly , Issue Spr , Pages 68-94

Journal Article
Which price index should a central bank employ?
Webb, Roy H. (2004-04)
Economic Quarterly , Volume 90 , Issue Spr , Pages 63-76

Journal Article
An index of leading indicators for inflation
Webb, Roy H.; Rowe, Tazwell S. (1995-04)
Economic Quarterly , Issue Spr , Pages 75-96