Journal Article
National productivity statistics
Webb, Roy H. (1998-01)
Economic Quarterly , Issue Win , Pages 45-64

Working Paper
Forecasts of inflation for VAR models
Webb, Roy H. (1994)
Why are forecasts of inflation from VAR models so much worse then their forecasts of real variables? This paper documents that relatively poor performance, and finds that the price equation of a VAR model fitted to U.S. postwar data is poorly specified. Statistical work by other authors has found that coefficients in such price equations may not be constant. Based on specific monetary actions, two changes in monetary policy regimes are proposed. Accounting for those two shifts yields significantly more accurate forecasts and lessens the evidence of misspecification.
Working Paper , Paper 94-08

Journal Article
The cyclical behavior of prices and employee compensation
Webb, Roy H. (2003-01)
Economic Quarterly , Volume 89 , Issue Win , Pages 69-83

Journal Article
Wage-price restraint and macroeconomic disequilibrium
Webb, Roy H. (1979-05)
An abstract for this article is not available
Economic Review , Volume 65 , Issue May , Pages 14-25

Journal Article
The national income and product accounts
Webb, Roy H. (1986-05)
Economic Review , Volume 72 , Issue May , Pages 11-17

Briefing
How useful are consumer surveys as macroeconomic indicators?
Webb, Roy H. (2010-07)
Most economic indicators attempt to summarize what happened at a particular time in the past. Consumer surveys, however, examine attitudes and are thus fundamentally different from other widely reported indicators. Some surveys, such as those that measure inflation expectations, have proven to be useful to economists and policymakers, while the evidence is more mixed for others, such as forecasts of consumer spending.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue July

Journal Article
The irrelevance of tests for bias in series of macroeconomic forecasts
Webb, Roy H. (1987-11)
The idea of rational expectations has revolutionized macroeconomics. Several authors believe that the idea can be easily tested by a simple econometric procedure. This paper, however, presents several reasons for questioning the relevance of such tests.
Economic Review , Volume 73 , Issue Nov , Pages 3-9

Journal Article
Vector autoregressions as a tool for forecast evaluations
Webb, Roy H. (1984-01)
In his article, Vector Autoregressions as a Tool for Forecast Evaluation, Roy H. Webb proposes that VAR forecasts be used as a standard of comparison for other forecasts. He begins by explaining how conventional forecasting models are constructed and used, and summarizes a few common objections to these models. He then describes the VAR methodology and compares forecasts from a simple VAR model with those from a consulting firm that uses a conventional model and with a series of consensus forecasts. The VAR model holds its own in this competition; in fact, only the VAR model is able to ...
Economic Review , Volume 70 , Issue Jan , Pages 3-11

Journal Article
Forecasts 1984
Webb, Roy H. (1984-01)
Roy H. Webb summarizes the consensus outlook for the current year in Forecasts 1984. (A more detailed summary of individual forecasts is available in the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmonds Business Forecasts 1984.) Most forecasters are calling for a continuation of the above-average growth and relatively low inflation of 1983. However, the consensus forecast has not been very accurate in the last two years.
Economic Review , Volume 70 , Issue Jan , Pages 24-26

Journal Article
Toward more accurate macroeconomic forecasts
Webb, Roy H. (1985-07)
A growing disenchantment with conventional economic models has resulted in increased interest in forecasting with vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In this article, Roy H. Webb develops a statistical procedure for determining the best configuration of explanatory variables in the equations of a VAR model. The resulting model forecasts more accurately than a conventional VAR model and is comparable to VARs improved through other popular methods. In addition, Webbs procedure lets the data determine the form of the model and reduces the role of judgment in specifying equations, consistent with ...
Economic Review , Volume 71 , Issue Jul , Pages 3-11