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Journal Article
National productivity statistics
Working Paper
Forecasts of inflation for VAR models
Why are forecasts of inflation from VAR models so much worse then their forecasts of real variables? This paper documents that relatively poor performance, and finds that the price equation of a VAR model fitted to U.S. postwar data is poorly specified. Statistical work by other authors has found that coefficients in such price equations may not be constant. Based on specific monetary actions, two changes in monetary policy regimes are proposed. Accounting for those two shifts yields significantly more accurate forecasts and lessens the evidence of misspecification.
Journal Article
The cyclical behavior of prices and employee compensation
Journal Article
Why economic data should be handled with care : the case of the suspiciously slow growth statistic
An abstract for this article is not available.
Journal Article
Forecasts 1983
An abstract for this article is not available.
Journal Article
Commodity prices as predictors of aggregate price change
Many analysts have advocated using commodity prices as a guide for monetary policy. A necessary condition is that changes in commodity prices are good predictors of future aggregate price changes. This paper examines that proposition. It shows that while commodity prices can help produce more accurate inflation forecasts, the amount of improvement is small.
Journal Article
Macroeconomic price indexes
Price Indexes allow one to compare the average levels of prices at different times. Despite their widespread use, price indexes do not answer all questions as well as analysts might wish. Macroeconomic Price Indexes is a guide for users of major price indexes. It provides details about several price indexes to help users intelligently decide what they can learn by using particular indexes.
Journal Article
Labor market data
A guide to the use and interpretation of labor market data (employment, unemployment, and wages). Important statistical sources are surveyed and their histories outlined.
Journal Article
Wage-price restraint and macroeconomic disequilibrium
An abstract for this article is not available
Journal Article
The national income and product accounts