Journal Article
Commodity prices as predictors of aggregate price change
Abstract: Many analysts have advocated using commodity prices as a guide for monetary policy. A necessary condition is that changes in commodity prices are good predictors of future aggregate price changes. This paper examines that proposition. It shows that while commodity prices can help produce more accurate inflation forecasts, the amount of improvement is small.
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Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Part of Series: Economic Review
Publication Date: 1988
Volume: 74
Issue: Nov
Pages: 3-11