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Working Paper
The Evolution of Lifetime Hours and the Gender Wage Gap
Leukhina, Oksana; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2023-09)
The gender wage gap decreased (opened) from 1940 to 1975 and then increased (closed) until 2010. We use the model introduced in Ben-Porath (1967) to assess the role of gender differences in life cycle profiles of market time in explaining this dynamics. Men's profiles changed little across cohorts, but women's profiles converged to that of men implying, eventually, stronger incentives for women to accumulate human capital. We calibrate the model and find that (1) The 1940-75 decrease of the gap was because men valued human capital more than women due to their working more. The 1975-10 ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-025

Schooling over Time and across Countries
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2023-10-05)
An analysis of three rich and three poor countries found that countries where schooling grew faster also had less economic growth from 1960-2010.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Mortality Reductions: Fast for Poorer Nations, Slow for Richer Nations
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2022-06-22)
The same increase in life expectancy took longer for a sample of today’s richer countries than it did for some of today’s poorer countries, but it also occurred earlier.
The Regional Economist

Speech
A Two-Tranche View of National Debt
Andolfatto, David; Bullard, James B.; DiCecio, Riccardo; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2022-10-14)
Speech

Newsletter
Is College Still Worth the High Price? Weighing Costs and Benefits of Investing in Human Capital
Wolla, Scott A.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Tucker, Cameron (2023-09)
Students have several options for life after high school. While college has been a popular choice, college enrollment for recent high school graduates has dropped, and some people are challenging the notion that college is the best route for the majority of students. This article examines whether college is still a good investment.
Page One Economics Newsletter

Conference Paper
A quantitative analysis of China’s structural transformation
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Dekle, Robert (2006-06)
Between 1978 and 2003 the Chinese economy experienced a remarkable 5.7 percent annual growth of GDP per labor. At the same time, there has been a noticeable transformation of the economy: the share of workers in agriculture decreased from over 70 percent to less than 50 percent. We distinguish three sectors: private agriculture and nonagriculture and public nonagriculture. A growth accounting exercise reveals that the main source of growth was TFP in the private nonagricultural sector. The reallocation of labor from agriculture to nonagriculture accounted for 1.9 percent out of the 5.7 ...
Proceedings , Issue Jun

Journal Article
The Role of Age in Determining Stock-Bond Investment Mix
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2018)
Economic reasoning suggests that people should invest heavily in stocks when young and then shift to less-risky bonds as they grow older. Yet U.S. households don?t appear to be following this investment pattern.
The Regional Economist , Volume 26 , Issue 4

Working Paper
The Baby Boomers and the Productivity Slowdown
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2018-12-01)
The entry of baby boomers into the labor market in the 1970s slowed growth for physical and human capital per worker because young workers have little of both. Thus, the baby boom could have contributed to the 1970s productivity slowdown. I build and calibrate a model a la Huggett et al. (2011) with exogenous population and TFP to evaluate this theory. The baby boom accounts for 75% of the slowdown in the period 1964-69, 25% in 1970-74 and 2% in 1975-79. The retiring of baby boomers may cause a 2.8pp decline in productivity growth between 2020 and 2040, ceteris paribus.
Working Papers , Paper 2018-37

Working Paper
On the Transition to Sustained Growth: The Importance of Recent Agricultural Employment
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Ravikumar, B. (2025-05-22)
We study a model where a single good can be produced using a diminishing-returns technology (Malthus) and a constant-returns technology (Solow). We map the former to agriculture and show that the share of agricultural employment declines at a constant rate during the economic transition and that recent observations on the share are sufficient to estimate the onset of transition. Our model implies that (i) output growth is higher and increasing after the onset of transition, (ii) during the transition, it is a first-order autoregressive process, and (iii) the rate of decline in the share of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-026

Working Paper
On the Economic Mechanics of Warfare
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2023-06)
A large literature is concerned with war finance, but there is little by way of understanding how war-related expenditures affect the economically-relevant outcomes of wars, e.g., prevailing side, duration, or destruction and casualties. I present a model of attrition in which I characterize the effects of resources on the outcomes of war for a military conclusion (when one side cannot fight anymore) and a political conclusion (when one side does not want to fight anymore). I discuss the role of GDP for both types of conclusion. I also analyze the mechanics of third-party support to a small ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-007

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