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Journal Article
Will Tariffs Touch Off an Inflationary Impulse? Business Execs Think So.
Following the inflationary surge from 2021 to 2023, which was touched off by supply chain constraints and shipping bottlenecks, we evaluate a new panel of own-firm price and unit cost growth expectations in the Atlanta Fed's Survey of Business Uncertainty for signs that the anticipated impact from tariffs is broadening beyond directly affected firms. We find evidence for the potential of tariffs to touch off another bout of high inflation. First, firms that are directly exposed to tariffs have increased their year-ahead price growth expectations sharply (by 0.7 percentage points). Second, ...
Journal Article
Tariffs and Consumer Prices: Insights from Newly Matched Consumption-Trade Micro Data
We evaluate the impact of various US tariff scenarios on consumer prices using novel micro-level data linking imports to consumer expenditures. Results indicate that an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports, 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, and 10 percent tariff on other countries could raise consumer prices on everyday retail purchases, such as food and beverage items and general merchandise, covering about a quarter of the total consumption basket, by 0.81 percent to 1.63 percent, assuming half to full pass-through. Notably, tariffs on Canada and Mexico ...
Working Paper
Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, and the Workforce: Evidence from Corporate Executives
We use novel data from a survey of nearly 750 corporate executives to study the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) on productivity and the workforce. We document substantial heterogeneity in AI adoption across firms, with more than half having already invested, though many smaller firms are only beginning to do so. Labor productivity gains are positive, vary across sectors, and are expected to strengthen in 2026, with the largest effects concentrated in high-skill services and finance. These gains are not primarily driven by firms' capital deepening but instead reflect increases in ...