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Journal Article
Using Brent and WTI oil prices to predict gasoline prices
Kliesen, Kevin L.; Owyang, Michael T. (2011)
The spot prices of West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil recently diverged. If this divergence persists, economists and energy analysts may want to focus on Brent prices when predicting the level of gasoline prices.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve's Eighth District
Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben; Engemann, Kristie M.; Owyang, Michael T. (2008-10)
Hernndez-Murillo and Owyang (2006) showed that accounting for spatial correlations in regional data can improve forecasts of national employment. This paper considers whether the predictive advantage of disaggregate models remains when forecasting subnational data. The authors conduct horse races among several forecasting models in which the objective is to forecast regional- or state-level employment. For some models, the objective is to forecast using the sum of further disaggregated employment (i.e., forecasts of metropolitan statistical area (MSA)-level data are summed to yield ...
Regional Economic Development , Issue Oct , Pages 15-29

Journal Article
Survey says...
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2005-09)
National Economic Trends , Issue Sep

Journal Article
Look who's working now
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2006-04)
National Economic Trends , Issue Apr

Working Paper
Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data
Galvão, Ana B.; Owyang, Michael T. (2020-09)
High-frequency financial and economic activity indicators are usually time aggregated before forecasts of low-frequency macroeconomic events, such as recessions, are computed. We propose a mixed-frequency modelling alternative that delivers high-frequency probability forecasts (including their confidence bands) for these low-frequency events. The new approach is compared with single-frequency alternatives using loss functions adequate to rare event forecasting. We provide evidence that: (i) weekly-sampled spread improves over monthly-sampled to predict NBER recessions, (ii) the predictive ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-028

Working Paper
Contagious Switching
Owyang, Michael T.; Soques, Daniel; Piger, Jeremy M. (2021-02-28)
We analyze the propagation of recessions across countries. We construct a model that allows for multiple qualitative state variables in a vector autoregression (VAR) setting. The VAR structure allows us to include country-level variables to determine whether policy also propagates across countries. We consider two different versions of the model. One version assumes the discrete state of the economy (expansion or recession) is observed. The other assumes that the state of the economy is unobserved and must be inferred from movements in economic growth. We apply the model to Canada, Mexico, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-014

Journal Article
Rockets and Feathers: Why Don't Gasoline Prices Always Move in Sync with Oil Prices?
Owyang, Michael T.; Vermann, E. Katarina (2014-10)
Given that Americans still spend a considerable portion of their budget on gasoline (just under 4 percent in 2012), it?s important to understand why gas prices don?t always move in sync with oil prices. The latter are determined in a more-or-less centralized market, but the market for gas is often local, with prices affected by location, season and taxes, among other factors.
The Regional Economist

Journal Article
The long and the short of the federal funds target cuts
Owyang, Michael T. (2001-09)
Monetary Trends , Issue Sep

Working Paper
The Nonlinear Effects of Uncertainty Shocks
Owyang, Michael T.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Jackson, Laura E. (2018-11-16)
We consider the effects of uncertainty shocks in a nonlinear VAR that allows uncertainty to have amplification effects. When uncertainty is relatively low, fluctuations in uncertainty have small, linear effects. In periods of high uncertainty, the effect of a further increase in uncertainty is magnified. We find that uncertainty shocks in this environment have a more pronounced effect on real economic variables. We also conduct counterfactual experiments to determine the channels through which uncertainty acts. Uncertainty propagates through both the household consumption channel and through ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-035

Working Paper
Tax Progressivity, Economic Booms, and Trickle-Up Economics
Owyang, Michael T.; Otrok, Christopher; Jackson, Laura E. (2020-11-18)
We propose a method to decompose changes in the tax structure into orthogonal components measuring the level and progressivity of taxes. The level shock is similar to tax shocks found in the empirical literature--increasing the tax level is contractionary. On the other hand, an increase in tax progressivity is expansionary. When tax progressivity increases, the bottom of the income distribution experiences an increase in disposable income. Agents at the low end of the income distribution who have high marginal propensity to consume offset the decrease in consumption by the savers at the high ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-034

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