Journal Article
Labor Market Tightness after the COVID-19 Recession: Differences across Industries
Birinci, Serdar; Ngân, Trần Khánh (2023-11-06)
Industries that contributed most to rising U.S. labor market tightness after the COVID-19 recession had large individual increases and high employment shares.
The Regional Economist

The Evolution of the Job Finding Rate during the COVID-19 Recession
Birinci, Serdar; Amburgey, Aaron; Ngân, Trần Khánh (2021-09-28)
The unusual nature of the COVID-19 recession appears to have masked the severity of the downturn’s impact on the rate at which unemployed workers found jobs.
On the Economy

What Are Financial Market Stress Indexes Showing?
McCracken, Michael W.; Werner, Devin; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Ngân, Trần Khánh (2022-05-24)
The St. Louis Fed’s financial stress index is diverging from others. The reason appears to be the result of a switch to a new interest rate used to help calculate the index.
On the Economy

The Great Resignation vs. the Great Reallocation Revisited
Birinci, Serdar; Ngân, Trần Khánh (2022-06-02)
The type of jobs typically found in the service industry had the sharpest increase in people quitting for a new job in 2021, according to an analysis of job quits.
On the Economy

Will High Inflation Persist?
McCracken, Michael W.; Ngân, Trần Khánh (2023-01-10)
The answer to when inflation will revert to its long-run average likely depends on whether we are still in the “Great Moderation” regime of less volatile inflation.
On the Economy

What Do Components of Key Inflation Measures Say about Future Inflation?
McCracken, Michael W.; Ngân, Trần Khánh (2023-05-25)
A new analysis suggests that the food expenditures category of the consumer price index could be a useful signal of future headline inflation.
On the Economy

A Hard or Soft Landing? The Answer May Lie in the Beveridge Curve
Birinci, Serdar; Ngân, Trần Khánh (2023-07-13)
The traditional Beveridge curve suggests that a sharp rise in unemployment is needed to meaningfully lower the job vacancy rate. But the curve shaped by the pandemic labor market may signal a different result.
On the Economy

Deconstructing Hours Worked: How Did Recent Recessions Differ?
Birinci, Serdar; Ngân, Trần Khánh (2023-08-01)
Weekly usual hours worked per capita recovered faster from the COVID-19 recession than from Great Recession because of stable hours per worker and a fast recovery in the employment rate.
On the Economy

Using Core Inflation to Predict Headline Inflation
McCracken, Michael W.; Ngân, Trần Khánh (2023-11-28)
An analysis of CPI data suggests that a measure of inflation excluding food and energy and a measure excluding only energy are useful predictors of overall inflation 12 months in the future.
On the Economy

Core Inflation Revisited: Forecast Accuracy across Horizons
McCracken, Michael W.; Ngân, Trần Khánh (2024-03-01)
How far out can you forecast inflation? This analysis examines the accuracy of core inflation in predicting headline inflation for periods ranging from three to 24 months in the future.
On the Economy