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Working Paper
Economic growth in Argentina in the period 1900-30: some evidence from stock returns
Nakamura, Leonard I.; Zarazaga, Carlos E. (1997)
This paper reports the first stage of a project to recover Argentine stock market data for the entire 20th century. The authors find that real rates of return on Argentine stocks and bonds after 1920 were above those in the Belle poque, and that they were consistent with the view that in the postwar period Argentina remained firmly integrated with international financial markets.
Working Papers , Paper 97-22

Journal Article
What you don’t know can hurt you: keeping track of risks in the financial system
Nakamura, Leonard I. (2013-01)
The financial crisis of 2007-2008 left in its wake new responsibilities for regulators to monitor the economy for risks to financial stability. The new task of monitoring financial stability includes tracking the risks of financial instruments and learning where these risks are located within the financial marketplace. One way to do this is to track the quantities of financial instruments and which institutions hold them. In this article, Leonard Nakamura discusses some limitations of the current data and the current data framework and the extent to which we can use the Flow of Funds for ...
Business Review , Issue Q1 , Pages 21-29

Working Paper
Loan screening within and outside of customer relationships
Nakamura, Leonard I. (1993)
Working Papers , Paper 93-15

Working Paper
Mismeasured personal saving and the permanent income hypothesis
Stark, Tom; Nakamura, Leonard I. (2007)
Is it possible to forecast using poorly measured data? According to the permanent income hypothesis, a low personal saving rate should predict rising future income (Campbell, 1987). However, the U.S. personal saving rate is initially poorly measured and has been repeatedly revised upward in benchmark revisions. The authors use both conventional and real-time estimates of the personal saving rate in vector autoregressions to forecast real disposable income; using the level of the personal saving rate in real time would have almost invariably made forecasts worse, but first differences of the ...
Working Papers , Paper 07-8

Working Paper
Expanded GDP for Welfare Measurement in the 21st Century
Nakamura, Leonard I.; Hulten, Charles R. (2020-03-09)
The information revolution currently underway has changed the economy in ways that are hard to measure using conventional GDP procedures. The information available to consumers has increased dramatically as a result of the Internet and its applications, and new mobile communication devices have greatly increased the speed and reach of its accessibility. An individual now has an unprecedented amount of information on which to base consumption choices, and the “free” nature of the information provided means that the resulting benefits largely bypass GDP and accrue directly to consumers. ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-10

Working Paper
Information losses in a dynamic model of credit
Nakamura, Leonard I.; Lang, William W. (1988)
Working Papers , Paper 88-15

Working Paper
Intangible assets and national income accounting: measuring a scientific revolution
Nakamura, Leonard I. (2009)
In this paper the author relates the measurement of intangibles to the project of measuring the sources of growth. He focuses on three related and difficult areas of the measurement of national income: the measurement of new goods, the deflation of intangible investment, and the divergence between the social and private valuations of intangible assets. The author argues that the economic theory and practice underlying measurement of these items is currently controversial and incomplete, and he points toward how concretely to move forward.
Working Papers , Paper 09-11

Working Paper
Delegating monitoring with diseconomies of scale
Nakamura, Leonard I. (1991)
Working Papers , Paper 91-9

Journal Article
How much is that home really worth? Appraisal bias and house-price uncertainty
Nakamura, Leonard I. (2010-01)
With house prices often below the face value of mortgages these days, the expected return on many mortgages has tumbled, since one of the major forces supporting mortgages, the collateral, has weakened. One source of these mortgage problems has been the validity of the home appraisal, which is supposed to be an objective and expert dollar valuation of the house that should help make a mortgage less risky. Unfortunately, the appraisal process can go awry and often has. As Leonard Nakamura shows in this article, appraisals have been biased upward, making mortgages riskier. Now a reverse risk is ...
Business Review , Issue Q1 , Pages 11-22

Working Paper
Optimal bank closure for deposit insurers
Nakamura, Leonard I.; Lang, William W. (1990)
Working Papers , Paper 90-12

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