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Working Paper
Cross-border Patenting, Globalization, and Development
We build a stylized model that captures the relationships between cross-border patenting, globalization, and development. Our theory delivers a gravity equation for cross-border patents. To test the model’s predictions, we compile a new dataset that tracks patents within and between countries and industries, for 1980-2019. The econometric analysis reveals a strong, positive impact of policy and globalization on cross-border patent flows, especially from North to South. A counterfactual welfare analysis suggests that the increase in patent flows from North to South has benefited both ...
Journal Article
Treasury Debt and Inflation Tax
We calculate the implicit inflation tax borne by households due to their holdings of U.S. Treasury debt. Nominal assets lose value due to unexpected inflation. We calculate unexpected changes in current and future inflation and document households’ holdings of Treasury debt across the wealth distribution, accounting for direct and indirect holdings through financial intermediaries. Combining these two pieces of information, we calculate the implied inflation tax across household wealth groups over the past four decades.
How Much Are We “Taxed” by Surprise Inflation?
When inflation surprises to the upside, borrowers pay back less in real terms. And Uncle Sam is America’s biggest borrower.
Journal Article
Global Supply Chain Disruptions and Inflation During the COVID-19 Pandemic
We investigate the role supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic played in U.S. producer price index (PPI) inflation. We exploit pre-pandemic cross-industry variation in sourcing patterns across countries and interact it with measures of international supply chain bottlenecks during the pandemic. We show that exposure to global supply chain disruptions played a significant role in U.S. cross-industry PPI inflation between January and November 2021. If bottlenecks had followed the same path as in 2019, PPI inflation in the manufacturing sector would have been 2 percentage points ...
Intellectual Property Rights Have Become A Key Part of Trade Deals
Developed countries typically require strong IPR provisions to limit imitation and technology leakages in developing economies.
Journal Article
Rethinking Global Value Chains During COVID-19: Part 2
Recent research shows that GVCs played a large role in the propagation of foreign shocks on U.S. industries.
Monetary Policy Surprises and Inflation Expectations
The private sector may slightly underestimate the short-term impact of monetary policy surprises on inflation but may predict longer-term effects fairly well.
Journal Article
Supply Chain Disruptions and Inflation During COVID-19
Supply chain disruptions have contributed to large increases in PPI inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Investigating the U.S. Reliance on Foreign Suppliers
As the global production process becomes more fragmented, certain U.S. sectors have come to depend more heavily on foreign suppliers.
Working Paper
Cross-border Patenting, Globalization, and Development
We build a quantitative model that captures the relationships between cross-border patenting, globalization, and development. Our theory delivers a ‘structural gravity’ equation for cross-border patents. To test the model’s predictions, we compile a new dataset that tracks patents within and between countries and industries over time. The econometric analysis reveals a strong, positive impact of policy and globalization on cross-border patent flows between 1995 and 2018, especially from North to South. A counterfactual analysis shows these North-to-South flows benefited both regions, ...