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Journal Article
How Labor Force Participation Has Diverged Across Genders
U.S. labor force participation rose for decades until the mid-1990s but has fallen steadily since then. This general pattern masks different paths for men and women in the workforce. Aging and rising education explain much of the long-run changes but do not account for the divergence by gender. Men’s trend participation has fallen steadily since the late 1970s, while women’s participation rose through 2000 before flattening. The difference mainly reflects younger male cohorts participating less than earlier ones, whereas younger female cohorts—especially those with more education—have ...
Journal Article
What’s Behind the Declining Trend Unemployment Rate?
The U.S. unemployment rate has trended down for decades. Estimates after removing business cycle fluctuations show that the trend rate fell from 7.8% in 1976 to 4.8% in 2024. This decline reflects in part a more-educated and older workforce—that is, a shift in composition towards demographic groups with traditionally lower unemployment rates. It also reflects newer cohorts entering the labor force with lower unemployment rates. Projections suggest that future demographic changes will gradually lower trend unemployment about 0.4 percentage point further over the next 20 years.
Journal Article
Consumer Vibe Check: Gas Prices and Inflation Expectations
According to household surveys, inflation expectations tend to move together with expectations for gasoline price changes. The relationship is not symmetrical, though: Inflation expectations rise when households revise up their outlook for gas price growth but change little when they revise it down. This pattern is strongest among lower-income and less-educated households. Analysis also suggests that increases in expected gas price growth are associated with greater perceived inflation uncertainty. However, quantitatively, the evidence suggests a moderate relationship between changes in ...
Journal Article
Are Inflation Expectations Currently Well Anchored?
The response of market-based long-run inflation expectations to monetary policy is one measure of the perceived credibility of the central bank’s inflation target—its “nominal anchor.” The strength of the nominal anchor in the United States has varied over time between 1999 and 2026, with the post-2022 trajectory suggesting an increasingly strong anchor. This channel may support monetary policy in returning inflation to its 2% target.