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Journal Article
A new approach to gauging inflation expectations
Haubrich, Joseph G. (2009-08)
This Economic Commentary explains a relatively new method of uncovering inflation expectations, real interest rates, and an inflation-risk premium. It provides estimates of expected inflation from one month to 30 years, an estimate of the inflation-risk premium, and a measure of real interest rates, particularly a short (one-month) rate, which is not readily available from the TIPS market. Calculations using the method suggest that longer-term inflation expectations remain near historic lows. Furthermore, the inflation-risk premium is also low, which in the model means that inflation is not ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2009 , Issue Aug , Pages 4

Journal Article
Predicting real growth using the yield curve
Haubrich, Joseph G.; Dombrosky, Ann M. (1996-01)
A study using out-of-sample regressions to determine how well the 10-year, 3-month yield spread predicts future real GDP growth. The author finds that although the yield curve is a good predictor over the entire 30-year sample period, it has become much less accurate over the last decade.
Economic Review , Issue Q I , Pages 26-35

Journal Article
Focusing on the Future: Regional Banks and the Financial Marketplace
Wallman, Nadine; Haubrich, Joseph G.; Jenkins, Stephen P.; Balasubramanyan, Lakshmi (2013-01)
Forefront , Issue Winter , Pages 4-9

Journal Article
Interest rates, yield curves, and the monetary regime
Haubrich, Joseph G. (2004-06)
The yield curve has a wealth of information about future interest rates and economic conditions. Users should exercise caution, though, as many of the relationships that hold between the behavior of the curve and what it foretells depend on the monetary regime in place at the time the curve is drawn.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jun

Journal Article
Capital requirements for financial firms
Haubrich, Joseph G.; Thomson, James B. (2012-11)
One of the reforms proposed for preventing financial crises is to require financial institutions to hold more capital. There are a number of unresolved issues related to such a requirement, ranging from the costs of increased capital requirements to the best way to structure them. Some of this research was presented at a recent conference, and we discuss the major findings in this Commentary.
Economic Commentary , Issue Nov

Working Paper
Causal Impact of Risk Oversight Functions on Bank Risk: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
Daniel, Naveen; Naveen, Lalitha; Haubrich, Joseph G.; Balasubramanyan, Lakshmi (2019-01-10)
Our goal is to document the causal impact of having a board-level risk committee (RC) and a management-level executive designated as chief risk officer (CRO) on bank risk. The Dodd Frank Act requires bank holding companies with over $10 billion of assets to have an RC, while those with over $50 billion of assets are additionally required to have a CRO to oversee risk management. The innovation that allows us to document a causal impact is our research design. First, we use the passage of the Dodd Frank Act as a natural experiment that forced noncompliant firms to adopt an RC and appoint a ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-01

Working Paper
Commitment as investment under uncertainty
Ritter, Joseph A.; Haubrich, Joseph G. (1996)
An explanation of how irreversible investment and the techniques associated with pricing real options can apply to a broad range of problems in finance, macroeconomics, and trade policy.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 9606

Working Paper
Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?
Haubrich, Joseph G. (2020-11-06)
Does the yield curve have the ability to predict output and recessions? At some times and in certain places, of course! But many details are matters of dispute: When and where does the yield curve predict successfully, which aspects of the curve matter most, and which economic forces account for the predictive ability? Over the years, an increasingly sophisticated set of tools, both statistical and theoretical, have addressed these issues. For the US, an inverted yield curve, particularly when the spread between the yield on 10-year and 3-month Treasuries becomes negative, has been a robust ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-34

Journal Article
Stress, Contagion, and Transmission: 2020 Financial Stability Conference
Haubrich, Joseph G. (2021-03-23)
Once a year, financial system regulators and economists meet to present and discuss the latest research on financial stability at a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Office of Financial Research. The major focus of discussion during the 2020 conference was the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the financial system. This Commentary summarizes the ideas and insights presented in the research papers and keynote speeches.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2021 , Issue 07 , Pages 5

Working Paper
Gross loan flows
Craig, Ben R.; Haubrich, Joseph G. (2000)
We present a series of stylized facts about gross loan flows and how they vary over time, bank size, and region. We define loan creation as the sum of the change in bank loans at all banks that increased loans since last quarter. Loan destruction is similarly defined as the absolute value of the change in loans at all banks that decreased loans. The gross flow (akin to what the labor literature calls reallocation) is the sum of creation and destruction.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 0014

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