Working Paper
The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regime: long-run evidence, 1875-1997
Abstract: This paper brings historical evidence to bear on the stylized fact that the yield curve predicts future growth. The spread between corporate bonds and commercial paper reliably predicts future growth over the period 1875-1997. This predictability varies over time, however, particularly across different monetary regimes. In accord with our proposed theory, regimes with low credibility (high persistence of inflation) tend to have better predictability.
https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-200402
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Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Part of Series: Working Papers (Old Series)
Publication Date: 2004
Number: 0402