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Journal Article
What Do Financial Officers Predict for Price Growth?
Survey responses from chief financial officers and other financial decisionmakers yield a new measure of inflation expectations. Rather than asking about expectations for overall inflation, this survey asks about expected price growth at each respondent’s business. Aggregating survey responses provides an economy-wide indicator that tracks well with actual core consumer price index inflation. Survey responses collected before and during the recent oil shock imply that core inflation could remain elevated this year if the historical relationship between financial officer expectations and ...
Journal Article
Signs of Cyclical Weakness in Part-Time Employment?
Involuntary part-time employment—the share of people who work less than 35 hours per week but want and are available to work full-time—has increased since 2023. While this contrasts with steady declines during previous cyclical expansions, it is consistent with the recent rise in unemployment. Examining worker transitions shows that fewer workers have found full-time work and a growing number have remained stuck in part-time employment. Though levels are only slightly elevated since 2023, this pattern may hint at emerging cyclical weakness in the labor market.
Journal Article
What Do Financial Officers Predict for the Labor Market?
Business leader surveys can be an important and reliable source for insights into future labor market conditions, particularly for expected wage growth. Survey responses from financial executives regarding their expectations for wages at their firms have closely tracked subsequent actual U.S. nominal wage growth since 2002, outperforming household survey projections in their accuracy. Estimates for this year point to continued nominal wage growth in 2026. Respondents also expect employment growth to moderate, though their projections reflect uncertainty regarding potential gains in workers’ ...