What Do Financial Officers Predict for the Labor Market?

Fried, Stephie; Graf, Tobin; Malhotra, Simar; Singh, Sanjay R.

Journal Article

What Do Financial Officers Predict for the Labor Market?

Abstract: Business leader surveys can be an important and reliable source for insights into future labor market conditions, particularly for expected wage growth. Survey responses from financial executives regarding their expectations for wages at their firms have closely tracked subsequent actual U.S. nominal wage growth since 2002, outperforming household survey projections in their accuracy. Estimates for this year point to continued nominal wage growth in 2026. Respondents also expect employment growth to moderate, though their projections reflect uncertainty regarding potential gains in workers’ purchasing power.