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Working Paper
Productivity and potential output before, during, and after the Great Recession
Fernald, John G. (2012)
This paper makes four points about the recent dynamics of productivity and potential output. First, after accelerating in the mid-1990s, labor and total-factor productivity growth slowed after the early to mid 2000s. This slowdown preceded the Great Recession. Second, in contrast to some informal commentary, productivity performance during the Great Recession and early in the subsequent recovery was roughly in line with previous experience during deep recessions. In particular, the evidence suggests substantial labor and capital hoarding. During the recovery, measures of factor utilization ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2012-18

Working Paper
Information and Communications Technology as a General-Purpose Technology: Evidence from U.S Industry Data
Basu, Susanto; Fernald, John G. (2006-12-01)
Many people point to information and communications technology (ICT) as the key for understanding the acceleration in productivity in the United States since the mid-1990s. Stories of ICT as a ‘general purpose technology’ suggest that measured TFP should rise in ICT-using sectors (reflecting either unobserved accumulation of intangible organizational capital; spillovers; or both), but with a long lag. Contemporaneously, however, investments in ICT may be associated with lower TFP as resources are diverted to reorganization and learning. We find that U.S. industry results are consistent ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2006-29

Newsletter
Comrades or competitors? on trade relationships between China and emerging Asia
Loungani, Prakash; Fernald, John G. (2004-03)
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Mar

Newsletter
The fall and rise of the global economy
Fernald, John G.; Greenfield, Victoria G. (2001-04)
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Apr

Working Paper
Shocks and Adjustments
Nechio, Fernanda; Fernald, John G.; Daly, Mary C.; Jordà, Òscar (2013)
We develop a multisector model in which capital and labor are free to move across firms within each sector, but cannot move across sectors. To isolate the role of sectoral specificity, we compare our model with otherwise identical multisector economies with either economy-wide factor markets (as in Chari et al. 2000) or firm-specific factor markets (as in Woodford 2005). Sectoral specificity induces within-sector strategic substitutability and across-sector strategic complementarity in price setting. Our model can produce either more or less monetary non-neutrality than those other two ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2013-32

Journal Article
Interpreting deviations from Okun’s Law
Nechio, Fernanda; Daly, Mary C.; Jordà, Òscar; Fernald, John G. (2014)
The traditional relationship between unemployment and output growth known as Okun?s law appeared to break down during the Great Recession. This raised the question of whether this rule of thumb was still meaningful as a forecasting tool. However, recent revisions to GDP data show that its relation with unemployment followed a fairly typical cyclical pattern compared with past deep recessions and slow recoveries. The comparatively common patterns suggest that rumors of the death of Okun?s law during the Great Recession were greatly exaggerated.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Monetary Policy Effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR Model
Fernald, John G.; Spiegel, Mark M.; Swanson, Eric T. (2014-02-24)
We use a broad set of Chinese economic indicators and a dynamic factor model framework to estimate Chinese economic activity and inflation as latent variables. We incorporate these latent variables into a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) to estimate the effects of Chinese monetary policy on the Chinese economy. A FAVAR approach is particularly well-suited to this analysis due to concerns about Chinese data quality, a lack of a long history for many series, and the rapid institutional and structural changes that China has undergone. We find that increases in bank reserve ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-7

Working Paper
Was China the first domino? assessing links between China and the rest of emerging Asia.
Edison, Hali J.; Fernald, John G.; Loungani, Prakash (1998)
We assess links between China and the rest of emerging Asia. Some commentators have argued that China?s apparent devaluation in 1994 may have contributed to the Asian financial crisis. We argue that the devaluation was not economically important: The more-relevant exchange rate was a floating rate that was not devalued, and high Chinese inflation has led to a very sharp real appreciation of the currency. Although in principle, export competition with China could nevertheless have placed pressure on other Asian exporters, we argue that the striking feature of the data is the common movement ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 604

Working Paper
Does the United States have a productivity slowdown or a measurement problem?
Fernald, John G.; Byrne, David M.; Reinsdorf, Marshall B. (2016-03-01)
After 2004, measured growth in labor productivity and total-factor productivity (TFP) slowed. We find little evidence that the slowdown arises from growing mismeasurement of the gains from innovation in IT-related goods and services. First, mismeasurement of IT hardware is significant prior to the slowdown. Because the domestic production of these products has fallen, the quantitative effect on productivity was larger in the 1995-2004 period than since, despite mismeasurement worsening for some types of IT?so our adjustments make the slowdown in labor productivity worse. The effect on TFP is ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-3

Working Paper
Dale W. Jorgenson: An Intellectual Biography
Fernald, John G. (2022-03-30)
Dale W. Jorgenson has been a central contributor to a wide range of economic and policy issues over a long and productive career. His research is characterized by a tight integration of economic theory, appropriate data that matches the theory, and sound econometrics. His groundbreaking work on the theory and empirics of investment established the research path for the economics profession. He is a founder of modern growth accounting: Official statistics in many countries, including the United States, implement Jorgenson’s methods. Relatedly, without Jorgenson’s unflagging efforts, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2022-08

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