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Fed’s forecasting edge ebbed prepandemic, persisted in downside inflation surprises
We compare Federal Reserve Board staff forecasts with professional forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators for headline Consumer Price Index inflation. The relevant question then is not whether inflation forecasts matter, but rather what their content reveals.
Early Mandated Social Distancing Does Best to Control COVID–19 Spread
Voluntary social distancing and a lack of compliance with mandated polices have led to unnecessarily high infection rates and death tolls in a number of countries.
Crude Oil Price Changes Quicker to Register at Gasoline Pump
How big an impact should we expect on gasoline prices? Based on recent research, most of the initial effect showed up quickly at the pump.
‘Great Ratios’ in Economics Don’t All Add Up
'Great ratios' are widely adopted in theoretical models in economics as conditions for balanced growth, arbitrage or solvency. However, the empirical literature has tended to find little evidence for them.
Vaccines Were Key to Curbing COVID-19 in Europe; Other Measures Also Useful
Vaccine uptake was the most important factor in reducing effective transmission rates in 2021, though the other factors helped bring infections under control.
Location, location, location: Mortgage rate impact varies by metro
The role of individual housing markets and their sensitivity to mortgage rate changes play an important part in understanding the impact of higher rates.
Persistence of house-price growth highlights geographic, credit factors
Growth in house prices is highly persistent and therefore more predictable than that of other assets, such as stocks.
Strong U.S. employment driven by sectors less sensitive to business cycles
The U.S. has enjoyed strong payroll job gains in the past couple of years despite generally restrictive monetary policy. The sectoral composition of employment reveals job growth has been concentrated in areas that are the least sensitive to national employment fluctuations over the business cycle.
Journal Article
Risk, uncertainty separately cloud global growth forecasting
Forecasts of global growth have historically been imprecise, punctuated by periods of optimism and pessimism. Inaccuracy in forecasting partly reflects quantifiable risks to the global outlook as well as economic uncertainty.
Journal Article
Impact of Chinese slowdown on U.S. no longer negligible
The impact of the Chinese economy on the U.S. has notably increased over the past two decades. Econometric modeling shows that the U.S. economy is more likely to directly and indirectly (through its trading partners) feel the impact of a negative shock to Chinese output.