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Break-even employment declined after immigration changes
Recent employment reports show U.S. payroll employment growth has cooled from its torrid pace in previous years, raising the question of whether this signals a healthy rebalancing or the start of a concerning slowdown.
Break-even employment declines as unauthorized immigration outflows continue
For policymakers, interpreting labor market conditions increasingly requires looking beyond headline payroll growth and incorporating timely measures of immigration and labor supply.
Working Paper
The Dual Beveridge Curve
The U.S. Beveridge curve’s recent outward shift has puzzled economists. We argue that the key stylized fact requiring a new framework is the divergence between surging vacancies and stable hires from unemployment. We propose a dual-vacancy model that attributes this divergence to a rising share of “poaching” vacancies targeted at employed workers. The model’s core identification reveals a disconnect: the data force a conclusion that poaching vacancies account for most vacancy fluctuations, yet have a surprisingly small impact on actual job-to-job hiring. This mechanism is validated by ...
Working Paper
Targeted Search in Matching Markets
We propose a parsimonious matching model where a person's choice of whom to meet endogenizes the degree of randomness in matching. The analysis highlights the interaction between a productive motive, driven by the surplus attainable in a match, and a strategic motive, driven by reciprocity of interest of potential matches. We find that the interaction between these two motives differs with preferences?vertical versus horizontal?and that this interaction implies that preferences recovered using our model can look markedly different from those recovered using a model where the degree of ...
Working Paper
The Dual Beveridge Curve
The U.S. Beveridge curve’s recent outward shift has puzzled economists. We argue that the key stylized fact requiring a new framework is the divergence between surging vacancies and stable hires from unemployment. We propose a dual-vacancy model that attributes this divergence to a rising share of “poaching” vacancies targeted at employed workers. The model’s core identification reveals a disconnect: the data force a conclusion that poaching vacancies account for most vacancy fluctuations, yet have a surprisingly small impact on actual job-to-job hiring. This mechanism is validated by ...