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Working Paper
Trade Risk and Food Security
Adamopoulos, Tasso; Leibovici, Fernando
(2025-11-05)
International trade provides critical access to food, yet many food-importing countries protect agriculture even where productivity is low. We study how the risk of trade disruptions shapes food security, the global distribution of production, and optimal policy. We document that reliance on imported staples is linked to higher food insecurity, particularly in poorer countries. Exploiting the Ukraine–Russia war, we find that districts in Ethiopia more exposed to disrupted imports suffered sharper declines in food security. We develop a multi-sector model of trade with stochastic trade costs ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2024-004
Working Paper
The Implications of Labor Market Heterogeneity on Unemployment Insurance Design
Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt
(2025-11-03)
We estimate UI eligibility, take-up, and replacement rates at the individual level and document how these rates vary with earnings and wealth prior to job loss, as well as over the duration of unemployment. To evaluate whether our empirical findings are important for shaping UI policy design, we analyze a widely used framework that combines an incomplete markets model with a frictional labor market. We show that when the model is extended to match our findings, the optimal policy becomes substantially more generous relative to the nested model that does not. In addition, the welfare gains ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2024-026
Working Paper
Earnings Misperceptions and Household Distress
Sanchez, Juan M.; Song, Stefan
(2025-11-03)
Households learn whether income changes are temporary or persistent from their own paychecks. This paper develops a quantitative model of financial distress that incorporates this inference and estimates the extent to which households overweight recent outcomes—diagnostic expectations—using survey data on income beliefs. The model explains distress without assuming extreme impatience and aligns with the observed relationship between income and interest rates. Learning and diagnostic expectations account for about half of delinquencies and one-third of bankruptcies. Diagnostic expectations ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2025-030
Working Paper
An Empirical Analysis of the Cost of Borrowing
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Jordan-Wood, Samuel; Kozlowski, Julian
(2025-11-03)
We empirically study firm financing costs using a comprehensive dataset of corporate bonds and bank loans. We construct a measure of the cost of financing, the ExcessDebt Premium, which controls for observable debt characteristics. We document two key findings: first, bank loans are about 97 basis points cheaper than corporate bonds when controlling for observable characteristics. Second, there is significant dispersion in borrowing costs, even within the same firm and quarter. The analysis reveals that this within firm variation persists after accounting for instrument type, maturity, ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2024-016
Working Paper
Sluggish news reactions: A combinatorial approach for synchronizing stock jumps
Bouamara, Nabil; Laurent, Sébastien; Neely, Christopher J.; Boudt, Kris
(2025-10-30)
Stock prices often react sluggishly to news, producing gradual and delayed jumps. Econometricians typically treat these sluggish reactions as microstructure effects and settle for a coarse sampling grid to guard against them. We introduce new methods to synchronize mistimed stock returns on a fine sampling grid that allow us to better approximate the true common jumps in the efficient prices of related stocks in an application to Dow 30 data. The synchronized jumps produce better jump covariance estimates and estimates of the realized jump betas with better forecasting power, and superior ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2024-006
Working Paper
Trade Risk and Food Security
Adamopoulos, Tasso; Leibovici, Fernando
(2025-10-30)
International trade provides critical access to food, yet many food-importing countries protect agriculture even where productivity is low. We study how the risk of trade disruptions shapes food security, the global distribution of production, and optimal policy. We document that reliance on imported staples is linked to higher food insecurity, particularly in poorer countries. Exploiting the Ukraine–Russia war, we find that districts in Ethiopia more exposed to disrupted imports suffered sharper declines in food security. We develop a multi-sector model of trade with stochastic trade costs ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2024-004
Working Paper
The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI
Bick, Alexander; Deming, David; Blandin, Adam
(2025-10-27)
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is a potentially important new technology, but its impact on the economy depends on the speed and intensity of adoption. This paper reports results from a series of nationally representative U.S. surveys of generative AI use at work and at home. As of late 2024, 45% of the U.S. population age 18-64 uses generative AI. Among employed respondents, 27% used generative AI for work at least once in the previous week: 10% used it every workday, and 17% on some but not all workdays. Relative to each technology’s first mass-market product launch, work ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2024-027
Working Paper
Parents, Patience, and Persistence: A Novel Theory of Intergenerational College Attainment
Fuller, David L.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume
(2025-10-27)
We present a theory of intergenerational persistence in college attainment (a Bachelors degree, BD) guided by two well-documented empirical regularities: (i) patient individuals are more likely to be college graduates and (ii) patience persists across generations because parents choose to transmit it to their children, among other non-cognitive traits. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to formalize and evaluate these mechanisms in a general equilibrium model. In the model, (i) and (ii) are endogenous outcomes implying college persistence. Standard mechanisms, i.e., credit ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2025-003
Working Paper
The Evolution of Regional Beveridge Curves
Shell, Hannah; Owyang, Michael T.; Soques, Daniel
(2025-10-24)
The slow recovery of the labor market in the aftermath of the Great Recession highlighted mismatch, or the misallocation of workers across space or across industries. We consider the historical evolution of regional mismatch. We construct MSA-level unemployment rates and vacancy data using techniques similar to Barnichon (2010) and a new dataset of online help wanted ads by MSA. We estimate regional Beveridge curves, identifying the slopes by restricting them to be equal across locations with similar labor market characteristics. We find that the 51 U.S. cities in our sample have four ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2022-037
Working Paper
Earnings Misperceptions and Household Distress
Sanchez, Juan M.; Song, Stefan
(2025-10-24)
Households learn whether income changes are temporary or persistent from the history of their own paychecks. This paper develops a quantitative model of household financial distress that incorporates this inference and uses survey data on income expectations to estimate the extent to which households overweight recent outcomes—diagnostic expectations. The model improves on the standard full-information, rational-expectations benchmark in two key dimensions: it explains financial distress without assuming extreme impatience, and it more accurately captures the empirical correlation between ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2025-030
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H27 2 items
H32 2 items
H54 2 items
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H73 2 items
I38 2 items
J40 2 items
L22 2 items
O15 2 items
O3 2 items
O57 2 items
Q53 2 items
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Z0 2 items
A14 1 items
B0 1 items
B1 1 items
B2 1 items
C1 1 items
C10 1 items
C18 1 items
C21 1 items
C26 1 items
C34 1 items
C43 1 items
C51 1 items
C54 1 items
C71 1 items
C8 1 items
C81 1 items
C82 1 items
D12 1 items
D51 1 items
D62 1 items
D7 1 items
D78 1 items
D86 1 items
D9 1 items
D90 1 items
E02 1 items
E25 1 items
E49 1 items
E69 1 items
F00 1 items
F02 1 items
F17 1 items
F32 1 items
F36 1 items
F37 1 items
F50 1 items
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F52 1 items
F54 1 items
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F65 1 items
G30 1 items
G5 1 items
H1 1 items
H22 1 items
H4 1 items
H51 1 items
H57 1 items
H62 1 items
H77 1 items
H8 1 items
H81 1 items
H84 1 items
H87 1 items
I1 1 items
I22 1 items
I28 1 items
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J01 1 items
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J38 1 items
J42 1 items
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J6 1 items
J68 1 items
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K10 1 items
K35 1 items
L93 1 items
M12 1 items
M50 1 items
M52 1 items
M55 1 items
N00 1 items
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N2 1 items
O2 1 items
O32 1 items
O38 1 items
O5 1 items
O51 1 items
P16 1 items
P23 1 items
P24 1 items
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discretion 18 items
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government debt 15 items
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job search 14 items
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technology adoption 14 items
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selection bias 4 items
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telecommuting 4 items
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wealth 4 items
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