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Working Paper
The Dual Beveridge Curve
Cheremukhin, Anton; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina
(2026-05-04)
The U.S. Beveridge curve’s recent outward shift has puzzled economists. We argue that the key stylized fact requiring a new framework is the divergence between surging vacancies and stable hires from unemployment. We propose a dual-vacancy model that attributes this divergence to a rising share of “poaching” vacancies targeted at employed workers. The model’s core identification reveals a disconnect: the data force a conclusion that poaching vacancies account for most vacancy fluctuations, yet have a surprisingly small impact on actual job-to-job hiring. This mechanism is validated by ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2022-021
Working Paper
Prior Knowledge, Module Design, and Student Dropout in Online K-12 Education
García, Manu; Mendez-Carbajo, Diego
(2026-04-30)
We examine student dropout in online K-12 education coursework using administrative data for 442,000 students, 64 economics and personal finance modules, and 2.1 million module assignments between 2014 and 2025. We find that module length, prior knowledge, embedded formative assessments, and school district demographics independently predict whether students complete assigned modules. Each additional page is associated with a 0.24-percentage-point decrease in completion probability, but this relationship is 30 percent weaker for students with above-median prior knowledge. Embedded knowledge ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2026-008
Working Paper
The Determinants of Mortgage Denial Using Public Data
García, Manu; Garriga, Carlos
(2026-04-29)
We analyze over 30 million home purchase mortgage applications from 2018-2024 using publicly available Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data to study the determinants of mortgage denial. We establish three primary findings. First, credit access is highly sensitive to monetary policy; the 2022-2023 tightening drove aggregate denial rates from 12.2% to 15.7% via the debt-to-income (DTI) channel. Second, we identify a critical nonlinearity in underwriting: While the 43% qualified mortgage (QM) threshold---below which lenders receive legal safe harbor from ability-to-repay claims---is ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2026-007
Working Paper
Stabilization vs. Growth
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Paul, Pascal; Sanchez, Juan M.
(2026-04-16)
Should firms in financial distress be saved to stabilize an economy, even if less productive ones are kept alive, possibly reducing economic growth? To assess this fundamental stabilization-vs.-growth trade-off, we develop a new dynamic general equilibrium model with business cycles, endogenous growth, and innovation externalities. We discipline key parameters using microeconomic data and an instrumental-variable approach that links firm productivity growth to R&D expenditure. Based on the calibrated model, we find that economies that save distressed firms with credit guarantees, debt ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2026-006
Working Paper
Scalable versus Productive Technologies
Hubmer, Joachim; Salgado, Sergio; Ozkan, Serdar; Hong, Guangbin; Chan, Mons
(2026-04-16)
CORRECT ORDER OF AUTHORS: Hubmer, Chan, Ozkan, Salgado, Hong. Are larger firms more productive, more scalable, or both? We use firm-level panel data from thirteen countries and employ a broad set of methods to estimate factor elasticities—capturing returns to scale (RTS)—and total factor productivity (TFP). We find substantial RTS heterogeneity within industries, with larger firms exhibiting higher RTS driven by greater intermediate input elasticities. TFP, by contrast, rises with firm size only up to the top decile before declining. The RTS–size gradient primarily reflects persistent, ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2024-019
Working Paper
An Empirical Analysis of the Cost of Borrowing
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Jordan-Wood, Samuel; Kozlowski, Julian
(2026-04-15)
We empirically study firm financing costs using a comprehensive dataset of corporate bonds and bank loans. We construct a measure of financing costs, the Excess Debt Premium, which controls for observable debt characteristics. We document two key findings: first, bank loans are about 45 basis points cheaper than corporate bonds when controlling for observable characteristics. Second, there is significant dispersion in borrowing costs, even within the same firm and quarter. The analysis reveals that this within-firm variation persists after accounting for instrument type, maturity, amount, and ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2024-016
Working Paper
Expectations on Wealth Returns: Implications for Labor Supply During the Retirement Boom
Birinci, Serdar; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; See, Kurt
(2026-04-08)
We use an overlapping-generations model with incomplete markets and a frictional labor market to study how assumptions about agents’ expectations of changes in returns to wealth affect labor supply and retirement decisions. Focusing on 2020–23, when returns fluctuated sharply and retirements rose above trend, we find that when individuals internalize the dependence of returns on wealth and view changes in returns as persistent, the model generates counterfactual labor-market outcomes. Retirements fall because expectations of persistently high returns boost labor supply, outweighing wealth ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2025-031
Working Paper
Drivers of Wage and Employment Growth in Recent Years: A Supply and Demand Decomposition
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Marks, Cassandra
(2026-03-30)
Understanding whether labor market developments stem from supply or demand forces has fundamental implications for the conduct of monetary policy. This article develops a structural vector autoregression (VAR) methodology to decompose U.S. employment and wage growth into supply and demand components using sign restrictions. Extending Shapiro (2026), we separately identify trend growth, current shocks, and past shocks across different industries. Results reveal that goods-producing sectors experienced strong demand-driven growth in 2022, which subsequently weakened as Federal Reserve ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2026-004
Working Paper
Drivers of Wage and Employment Growth in Recent Years: A Supply and Demand Decomposition
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Marks, Cassandra
(2026-03-27)
Understanding whether labor market developments stem from supply or demand forces has fundamental implications for the conduct of monetary policy. This article develops a structural vector autoregression (VAR) methodology to decompose U.S. employment and wage growth into supply and demand components using sign restrictions. Extending Shapiro (2026), we separately identify trend growth, current shocks, and past shocks across different industries. Results reveal that goods-producing sectors experienced strong demand-driven growth in 2022, which subsequently weakened as Federal Reserve ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2026-004
Working Paper
Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the US
Jessen, Jonas; Blandin, Adam; Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola; Bick, Alexander; Deming, David
(2026-03-26)
This paper combines international evidence from worker and firm surveys conducted in 2025 and2026 to document large gaps in AI adoption, both between the US and Europe and across European countries. Cross-country differences in worker demographics and firm composition account for an important share of these gaps. AI adoption, within and across countries, is also closely linked to firm personnel management practices and whether firms actively encourage AI use by workers. Micro-level evidence suggests that AI generates meaningful time savings for many workers. At the macro level, in recent ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2026-003
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D71 2 items
D72 2 items
E0 2 items
E27 2 items
F23 2 items
F3 2 items
F40 2 items
G10 2 items
G23 2 items
G34 2 items
G5 2 items
H12 2 items
H20 2 items
H23 2 items
H27 2 items
H32 2 items
H54 2 items
H55 2 items
H73 2 items
I38 2 items
J30 2 items
J40 2 items
L22 2 items
O15 2 items
O3 2 items
O57 2 items
Q53 2 items
R53 2 items
Z0 2 items
A14 1 items
A20 1 items
A21 1 items
B0 1 items
B1 1 items
B2 1 items
C1 1 items
C10 1 items
C18 1 items
C21 1 items
C26 1 items
C34 1 items
C43 1 items
C51 1 items
C54 1 items
C71 1 items
C8 1 items
C81 1 items
C82 1 items
D12 1 items
D51 1 items
D62 1 items
D7 1 items
D78 1 items
D86 1 items
D9 1 items
D90 1 items
E02 1 items
E25 1 items
E49 1 items
E69 1 items
F00 1 items
F02 1 items
F17 1 items
F32 1 items
F36 1 items
F37 1 items
F50 1 items
F51 1 items
F52 1 items
F54 1 items
F55 1 items
F65 1 items
G30 1 items
H1 1 items
H22 1 items
H4 1 items
H53 1 items
H57 1 items
H62 1 items
H77 1 items
H8 1 items
H81 1 items
H84 1 items
H87 1 items
I1 1 items
I21 1 items
I22 1 items
I24 1 items
I28 1 items
I31 1 items
J01 1 items
J38 1 items
J42 1 items
J44 1 items
J6 1 items
J68 1 items
J7 1 items
K10 1 items
K35 1 items
L93 1 items
M12 1 items
M16 1 items
M50 1 items
M52 1 items
M55 1 items
N00 1 items
N10 1 items
N2 1 items
O2 1 items
O32 1 items
O38 1 items
O5 1 items
O51 1 items
P16 1 items
P23 1 items
P24 1 items
P51 1 items
Q02 1 items
Q32 1 items
Q54 1 items
Q58 1 items
R0 1 items
R13 1 items
R2 1 items
R4 1 items
Z1 1 items
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fiscal policy 40 items
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international trade 29 items
Prices 27 items
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inequality 25 items
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human capital 24 items
Money 23 items
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time series analysis 22 items
Money supply 21 items
liquidity 21 items
unemployment 20 items
Banks and banking 19 items
Great Recession 19 items
Heterogeneous Agents 19 items
Macroeconomics 19 items
Stock market 18 items
discretion 18 items
job search 18 items
Economic development 17 items
Fiscal policy 17 items
Liquidity (Economics) 17 items
Labor market 16 items
Rational expectations (Economic theory) 16 items
Asset pricing 15 items
Bank supervision 15 items
Default 15 items
Regional economics 15 items
government debt 15 items
misallocation 15 items
technology adoption 15 items
Federal Open Market Committee 14 items
Job Search 14 items
Mortgages 14 items
Vector autoregression 14 items
credit spreads 14 items
Credit 13 items
International finance 13 items
Monetary Policy 13 items
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deficit 13 items
institutional design 13 items
political frictions 13 items
recession 13 items
time-consistency 13 items
Banks and banking, Central 12 items
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Economic forecasting 12 items
Federal funds rate 12 items
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business cycles 12 items
intellectual property rights 12 items
productivity 12 items
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mobility 11 items
vacancies 11 items
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convergence 10 items
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population dynamics 10 items
technology diffusion 10 items
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Phillips curve 9 items
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Risk 9 items
Stock - Prices 9 items
credit constraints 9 items
earnings dynamics 9 items
emerging markets 9 items
employer effects 9 items
financial frictions 9 items
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high-frequency data 9 items
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trade 9 items
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education 8 items
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heterogeneity 8 items
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pandemic 8 items
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real-time data 8 items
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spillovers 8 items
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bank lending 7 items
banking panics 7 items
banks 7 items
capital asset pricing model 7 items
cluster analysis 7 items
college quality 7 items
contagion 7 items
employment 7 items
endogenous growth 7 items
heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) models 7 items
income inequality 7 items
innovation 7 items
mortality 7 items
recursive contracts 7 items
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attrition 6 items
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default 6 items
demographics 6 items
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evergreening 6 items
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investment 6 items
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risk 6 items
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zombie firms 6 items
Asymmetry 5 items
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Fiscal Policy and Household Behavior 5 items
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backloaded incentives 5 items
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good deal 5 items
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mismatch 5 items
monitoring 5 items
natural language processing 5 items
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out-of-sample 5 items
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quantiles 5 items
racial disparities 5 items
rate of return heterogeneity 5 items
rules 5 items
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structural estimation 5 items
subjective expectations 5 items
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capital controls 4 items
conditional encompassing 4 items
credit market participation 4 items
economic geography 4 items
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effective lower bound 4 items
eurodollar futures 4 items
extensive and intensive margins 4 items
female labor force participation 4 items
financial markets 4 items
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fiscal dominance 4 items
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gender wage gap 4 items
gravity 4 items
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inflation forecasts 4 items
interbank networks 4 items
international shipping 4 items
jump intensity 4 items
labor flows 4 items
large language models 4 items
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monetary policy announcements 4 items
nonlinear methods 4 items
nonlinearity 4 items
on-the-job investment 4 items
optimal monetary policy 4 items
overlapping generations 4 items
present bias 4 items
public debt sustainability 4 items
reserve requirements 4 items
selection bias 4 items
shipping demand 4 items
shipping prices 4 items
shipping supply 4 items
social insurance 4 items
spatial equilibrium 4 items
strategic rivalry 4 items
taxes 4 items
telecommuting 4 items
time-varying tail risk 4 items
trade agreements 4 items
unconventional monetary policy 4 items
wage posting 4 items
wealth 4 items
Aldrich plan 3 items
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act 3 items
Balance of trade 3 items
Bank mergers 3 items
Banking 3 items
Banks and banking - History 3 items
Bayesian estimation 3 items
Capital accumulation 3 items
Capital investments 3 items
Check collection systems 3 items
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Consumer Spending 3 items
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Demand for money 3 items
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Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models 3 items
Economic Geography 3 items
Economic growth 3 items
Establishment-size wage premium 3 items
European Monetary System (Organization) 3 items
Experience 3 items
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Finance 3 items
Financial Distress 3 items
Free trade 3 items
Friedman, Milton 3 items
Government securities 3 items
Government spending policy 3 items
Gravity model 3 items
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Group of Seven countries 3 items
Heterogeneity 3 items
Heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) model 3 items
Home ownership 3 items
Housing - Finance 3 items
Immigrants 3 items
Industrial Revolution 3 items
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Inflation (Finance) - Great Britain 3 items
Inflation targeting 3 items
Insurance 3 items
Intellectual Property Rights 3 items
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International Monetary Fund 3 items
International business enterprises 3 items
Investments, Foreign - United States 3 items
Keynesian economics 3 items
Knowledge spillovers 3 items
Labor Productivity 3 items
Labor productivity 3 items
Lump-sum Transfers 3 items
Macroeconomics - Econometric models 3 items
Manufactures 3 items
Microeconomics 3 items
Mortality 3 items
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New Keynesian models 3 items
New Stage Theory 3 items
News 3 items
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Pareto tails 3 items
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Private Information 3 items
Production Externalities 3 items
Progressive Party 3 items
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R&D 3 items
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Real-time data 3 items
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