Search Results
Working Paper
Expectations on Wealth Returns: Implications for Labor Supply During the Retirement Boom
Birinci, Serdar; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; See, Kurt
(2026-04-08)
We use an overlapping-generations model with incomplete markets and a frictional labor market to study how assumptions about agents’ expectations of changes in returns to wealth affect labor supply and retirement decisions. Focusing on 2020–23, when returns fluctuated sharply and retirements rose above trend, we find that when individuals internalize the dependence of returns on wealth and view changes in returns as persistent, the model generates counterfactual labor-market outcomes. Retirements fall because expectations of persistently high returns boost labor supply, outweighing wealth ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2025-031
Working Paper
Drivers of Wage and Employment Growth in Recent Years: A Supply and Demand Decomposition
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Marks, Cassandra
(2026-03-30)
Understanding whether labor market developments stem from supply or demand forces has fundamental implications for the conduct of monetary policy. This article develops a structural vector autoregression (VAR) methodology to decompose U.S. employment and wage growth into supply and demand components using sign restrictions. Extending Shapiro (2026), we separately identify trend growth, current shocks, and past shocks across different industries. Results reveal that goods-producing sectors experienced strong demand-driven growth in 2022, which subsequently weakened as Federal Reserve ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2026-004
Working Paper
Drivers of Wage and Employment Growth in Recent Years: A Supply and Demand Decomposition
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Marks, Cassandra
(2026-03-27)
Understanding whether labor market developments stem from supply or demand forces has fundamental implications for the conduct of monetary policy. This article develops a structural vector autoregression (VAR) methodology to decompose U.S. employment and wage growth into supply and demand components using sign restrictions. Extending Shapiro (2026), we separately identify trend growth, current shocks, and past shocks across different industries. Results reveal that goods-producing sectors experienced strong demand-driven growth in 2022, which subsequently weakened as Federal Reserve ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2026-004
Working Paper
Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the US
Jessen, Jonas; Blandin, Adam; Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola; Bick, Alexander; Deming, David
(2026-03-26)
This paper combines international evidence from worker and firm surveys conducted in 2025 and2026 to document large gaps in AI adoption, both between the US and Europe and across European countries. Cross-country differences in worker demographics and firm composition account for an important share of these gaps. AI adoption, within and across countries, is also closely linked to firm personnel management practices and whether firms actively encourage AI use by workers. Micro-level evidence suggests that AI generates meaningful time savings for many workers. At the macro level, in recent ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2026-003
Working Paper
Expanding College Access
Hendricks, Lutz; Koreshkova, Tatyana; Leukhina, Oksana
(2026-03-26)
This paper studies the effects of expanding high-quality public university capacities on student earnings and welfare. Using a quantitative model of college choice, we find that expanding the most selective colleges by 20 percent increases aggregate earnings by 0.8 percent and welfare by 2 percent. The gains arise because a large number of high-ability students are rationed out of selective colleges. When admitted, these students graduate at high rates and enjoy substantial earnings gains. The earnings gains generated by expanding college capacity are eight times larger than the fiscal cost ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2026-005
Working Paper
Why Do Americans No Longer Work So Much More Than Non-Americans?
See, Kurt; Birinci, Serdar; Karabarbounis, Loukas
(2026-03-24)
In the 1990s, Americans used to work much more than non-Americans. Nowadays, about half of the gap in hours worked has reversed. To evaluate the convergence of working hours, we develop a tractable model of labor supply enriched with multiple sources of heterogeneity across individuals, an extensive margin of participation, multi-member households, and an elaborate system of taxes and benefits upon non-employment. Using detailed measurements from micro-level and aggregate datasets, we identify model parameters and sources of heterogeneity across individuals for various countries. We run a ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2026-002
Working Paper
Optimal Dynamic Tax-Transfer Policies in Heterogeneous-Agents Economies
Chien, YiLi; Wen, Yi
(2026-03-12)
When designing an optimal tax-transfer system, the existing literature identifies two key factors: labor efficiency and debt efficiency. The labor-efficiency approach emphasizes the trade-off between redistribution and distortion in the labor market, while the debt efficiency approach emphasizes the trade-off between monopoly rent gains and distortion in the asset market. In this paper, we propose a third factor to consider when designing optimal tax-transfer policies: the dynamic-efficiency approach. To demonstrate this, we use an analytically tractable infinite-horizon model incorporating ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2023-009
Working Paper
Tax Progressivity, Economic Booms, and Trickle-Up Economics
Owyang, Michael T.; Otrok, Christopher; Jackson, Laura E.; Traum, Nora
(2026-03-12)
We study the macroeconomic and distributional effects of changes in income tax progressivity in the United States. We propose a method to decompose changes in the tax structure into orthogonal components measuring the level and progressivity of taxes. Estimating these components jointly with macroeconomic outcomes in a factor-augmented VAR, we find that tax level shocks are contractionary, while tax progressivity shocks are expansionary, raising output and consumption by shifting disposable income from high to low-income households. Despite being revenue neutral by construction, progressivity ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2019-034
Working Paper
When Liquidity Matters: Firm Balance Sheets during Large Crises
Ebsim, Mahdi; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Kozlowski, Julian
(2026-03-11)
We study how aggregate shocks shape the joint dynamics of credit spreads, debt, and liquid asset holdings for nonfinancial firms, focusing on the Great Financial Crisis(GFC) and COVID-19. Both episodes saw sharp credit spread increases and investment declines, but debt and liquidity fell during the GFC and rose during COVID-19. Crosssectionally, leverage drove spreads and investment in the GFC, while liquidity dominated during COVID-19. We build a macro-finance model of firm capital structure with a liquidity motive for working capital. Calibrated to data, it attributes the GFC to real and ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2025-019
Working Paper
Private Information and Optimal Infant Industry Protection
Riezman, Raymond; Ravikumar, B.; Zhang, Yuzhe
(2026-03-08)
We study infant industry protection using a dynamic model in which the industry’s cost is initially higher than that of foreign competitors. The industry can stochastically lower its cost via learning by doing. Whether the industry has transitioned to low cost is private information. Using a mechanism-design approach, we solve for the optimal protection policy that induces the industry to reveal its true cost. We show that (i) optimal protection, measured by infant industry output, declines over time and is less than that under public information and (ii) eventual viability of the infant ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2022-013
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E0 2 items
E27 2 items
F23 2 items
F3 2 items
F40 2 items
G10 2 items
G23 2 items
G34 2 items
G5 2 items
H12 2 items
H20 2 items
H23 2 items
H27 2 items
H32 2 items
H54 2 items
H55 2 items
H73 2 items
I38 2 items
J30 2 items
J40 2 items
L22 2 items
O15 2 items
O3 2 items
O57 2 items
Q53 2 items
R53 2 items
Z0 2 items
A14 1 items
B0 1 items
B1 1 items
B2 1 items
C1 1 items
C10 1 items
C18 1 items
C21 1 items
C26 1 items
C34 1 items
C43 1 items
C51 1 items
C54 1 items
C71 1 items
C8 1 items
C81 1 items
C82 1 items
D12 1 items
D51 1 items
D62 1 items
D7 1 items
D78 1 items
D86 1 items
D9 1 items
D90 1 items
E02 1 items
E25 1 items
E49 1 items
E69 1 items
F00 1 items
F02 1 items
F17 1 items
F32 1 items
F36 1 items
F37 1 items
F50 1 items
F51 1 items
F52 1 items
F54 1 items
F55 1 items
F65 1 items
G30 1 items
H1 1 items
H22 1 items
H4 1 items
H53 1 items
H57 1 items
H62 1 items
H77 1 items
H8 1 items
H81 1 items
H84 1 items
H87 1 items
I1 1 items
I22 1 items
I28 1 items
I31 1 items
J01 1 items
J38 1 items
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J44 1 items
J6 1 items
J68 1 items
J7 1 items
K10 1 items
K35 1 items
L93 1 items
M12 1 items
M16 1 items
M50 1 items
M52 1 items
M55 1 items
N00 1 items
N10 1 items
N2 1 items
O2 1 items
O32 1 items
O38 1 items
O5 1 items
O51 1 items
P16 1 items
P23 1 items
P24 1 items
P51 1 items
Q02 1 items
Q32 1 items
Q54 1 items
Q58 1 items
R0 1 items
R13 1 items
R2 1 items
R4 1 items
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FILTER BY Keywords
Monetary policy 116 items
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COVID-19 56 items
monetary policy 56 items
Inflation (Finance) 51 items
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inflation 41 items
fiscal policy 40 items
Forecasting 36 items
Incomplete Markets 36 items
Ramsey Problem 33 items
Interest rates 31 items
Foreign exchange rates 30 items
international trade 29 items
Prices 27 items
Foreign exchange 25 items
International trade 25 items
inequality 25 items
Unemployment 24 items
human capital 24 items
Money 23 items
Taxation 23 items
time series analysis 22 items
Money supply 21 items
liquidity 21 items
Banks and banking 19 items
Great Recession 19 items
Heterogeneous Agents 19 items
Macroeconomics 19 items
unemployment 19 items
Stock market 18 items
discretion 18 items
job search 18 items
Economic development 17 items
Fiscal policy 17 items
Liquidity (Economics) 17 items
Labor market 16 items
Rational expectations (Economic theory) 16 items
Asset pricing 15 items
Bank supervision 15 items
Default 15 items
Regional economics 15 items
government debt 15 items
technology adoption 15 items
Federal Open Market Committee 14 items
Job Search 14 items
Mortgages 14 items
Vector autoregression 14 items
misallocation 14 items
Credit 13 items
International finance 13 items
Monetary Policy 13 items
Productivity 13 items
Sovereign Debt 13 items
Stock exchanges 13 items
Wages 13 items
credit spreads 13 items
deficit 13 items
institutional design 13 items
political frictions 13 items
recession 13 items
time-consistency 13 items
Banks and banking, Central 12 items
Consumption (Economics) 12 items
Economic forecasting 12 items
Federal funds rate 12 items
Fiscal Policy 12 items
intellectual property rights 12 items
productivity 12 items
Country Risk 11 items
Crises 11 items
Financial crises 11 items
Monetary policy - United States 11 items
Monetary theory 11 items
business cycles 11 items
mobility 11 items
Business Cycles 10 items
Capital 10 items
Deposit insurance 10 items
Econometrics 10 items
Economic conditions 10 items
Federal Reserve System 10 items
Investments 10 items
Markov-switching 10 items
convergence 10 items
earnings losses 10 items
job mobility 10 items
population dynamics 10 items
technology diffusion 10 items
vacancies 10 items
Bank failures 9 items
Bankruptcy 9 items
Gambling industry 9 items
Great Britain 9 items
Income distribution 9 items
Mortgage loans 9 items
Phillips curve 9 items
Recessions 9 items
Risk 9 items
Stock - Prices 9 items
credit constraints 9 items
earnings dynamics 9 items
emerging markets 9 items
employer effects 9 items
fiscal multipliers 9 items
high-frequency data 9 items
job displacement 9 items
labor markets 9 items
labor supply 9 items
prediction 9 items
retirement 9 items
trade 9 items
Assets (Accounting) 8 items
Capital Taxation 8 items
Demography 8 items
Education 8 items
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Income 8 items
Inventories 8 items
Maturity 8 items
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Price Dispersion 8 items
Regional Economics 8 items
Social security 8 items
Technology 8 items
Terrorism 8 items
Unemployment Insurance 8 items
austerity 8 items
debt sustainability 8 items
economic transition 8 items
education 8 items
financial development 8 items
financial distress 8 items
financial frictions 8 items
fiscal rules 8 items
forecasting 8 items
heterogeneity 8 items
heterogeneous agents 8 items
household behavior 8 items
incomplete markets 8 items
insurance 8 items
layoffs 8 items
life expectancy 8 items
pandemic 8 items
quantitative easing 8 items
quits 8 items
real-time data 8 items
royalty payments 8 items
spillovers 8 items
trade policy 8 items
war 8 items
welfare 8 items
Bank reserves 7 items
Bretton Woods 7 items
Capital movements 7 items
Employment 7 items
Equilibrium (Economics) 7 items
Inequality 7 items
Inflation 7 items
Liquidity 7 items
Malthus 7 items
Money theory 7 items
Production (Economic theory) 7 items
Quantitative Easing 7 items
Sign Restrictions 7 items
Solow 7 items
Structural Vector Autoregressions 7 items
Subprime mortgage 7 items
Supply and Demand Shocks 7 items
Uniform Pricing 7 items
Welfare 7 items
agricultural employment 7 items
bank lending 7 items
banking panics 7 items
banks 7 items
capital asset pricing model 7 items
cluster analysis 7 items
college quality 7 items
contagion 7 items
employment 7 items
heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) models 7 items
income inequality 7 items
innovation 7 items
mortality 7 items
recursive contracts 7 items
research and development 7 items
unemployment insurance 7 items
Beveridge curve 6 items
Capital Flows 6 items
Community banks 6 items
Costly Information 6 items
Credit unions 6 items
Debt 6 items
Discount 6 items
Dollar, American 6 items
Exports 6 items
Financial institutions 6 items
Financial markets 6 items
Germany 6 items
Gini coefficients 6 items
IPO 6 items
Immiseration 6 items
Inflows 6 items
Japan 6 items
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Markov-perfect equilibrium 6 items
Multiple Applications 6 items
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Optimal Public Debt 6 items
Outflows 6 items
Petroleum industry and trade 6 items
Rate of return 6 items
Saving and investment 6 items
Tariff 6 items
Tax Smoothing 6 items
Taylor's rule 6 items
Technology diffusion 6 items
Trade 6 items
VAR 6 items
asymmetry 6 items
attrition 6 items
bank closures 6 items
bond markets 6 items
cojumps 6 items
crises 6 items
default 6 items
demographics 6 items
economic conditions - United States 6 items
endogenous growth 6 items
evergreening 6 items
financial crises 6 items
financial repression 6 items
generative artificial intelligence (AI) 6 items
immigration 6 items
inference 6 items
investment 6 items
local-spillover decomposition 6 items
persistent private information 6 items
reallocation 6 items
remote work 6 items
risk 6 items
search frictions 6 items
sovereign debt 6 items
startups 6 items
taxation 6 items
venture capital 6 items
wage dispersion 6 items
wages 6 items
zombie firms 6 items
Asymmetry 5 items
China 5 items
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Consumption 5 items
Corporations - Finance 5 items
Emerging Markets 5 items
Federal Reserve Act 5 items
Fiscal Multipliers 5 items
Fiscal Policy and Household Behavior 5 items
Foreign aid program 5 items
Housing 5 items
Human capital 5 items
Investments, Foreign 5 items
Laffer curve 5 items
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Nonlinearity 5 items
North American Free Trade Agreement 5 items
Restructuring 5 items
Technology - Economic aspects 5 items
backloaded incentives 5 items
bankruptcy 5 items
bequests 5 items
capital gains taxation 5 items
classification errors 5 items
cross-border patents 5 items
delinquency 5 items
dynamic contracts 5 items
earnings risk 5 items
evaluating 5 items
exchange rate 5 items
funding rounds 5 items
good deal 5 items
government transfers 5 items
heterogeneous households 5 items
higher-order earnings risk 5 items
hours 5 items
income 5 items
intangibles 5 items
intergenerational mobility 5 items
job transitions 5 items
large-scale asset purchases 5 items
life cycle economies 5 items
lifecycle wealth dynamics 5 items
machine learning 5 items
military spending 5 items
mismatch 5 items
monitoring 5 items
natural language processing 5 items
neighborhood segregation 5 items
nominal GDP targeting 5 items
out-of-sample 5 items
quantiles 5 items
racial disparities 5 items
rate of return heterogeneity 5 items
returns to scale 5 items
rules 5 items
saving rate heterogeneity 5 items
social security 5 items
structural breaks 5 items
structural change 5 items
structural estimation 5 items
subjective expectations 5 items
systemic risk 5 items
total factor productivity (TFP) 5 items
trade liberalization 5 items
volatility 5 items
wealth inequality 5 items
work from home 5 items
worker reallocation 5 items
yield curves 5 items
Agency securities 4 items
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Banking law 4 items
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Credit Spreads 4 items
Development 4 items
Economic policy 4 items
Education - Economic aspects 4 items
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European Economic Community 4 items
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Exchange rate 4 items
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) news 4 items
Federal Reserve System - History 4 items
Federal funds market (United States) 4 items
Fiscal Multiplier 4 items
Foreclosure 4 items
Geography 4 items
Government-sponsored enterprises 4 items
Home equity loans 4 items
Housing - Prices 4 items
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Labor supply 4 items
Large-Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP) 4 items
Mexico 4 items
Mobility 4 items
Monetary Policy Rules 4 items
Monetary policy - Great Britain 4 items
Occupational Barriers 4 items
Optimal Debt 4 items
Panic of 1907 4 items
Payment systems 4 items
Pensions 4 items
Regression analysis 4 items
Seigniorage 4 items
Stocks 4 items
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Time-Varying Risk Premium 4 items
Treasury bond short interest 4 items
Treasury securities 4 items
War - Economic aspects 4 items
artificial intelligence 4 items
bailouts 4 items
bonds 4 items
business cycle accounting 4 items
capital controls 4 items
conditional encompassing 4 items
credit market participation 4 items
economic geography 4 items
economic growth 4 items
effective lower bound 4 items
eurodollar futures 4 items
extensive and intensive margins 4 items
female labor force participation 4 items
financial markets 4 items
firms dynamics 4 items
fiscal dominance 4 items
food security 4 items
gender wage gap 4 items
gravity 4 items
health production 4 items
health reform 4 items
housing prices 4 items
inflation forecasts 4 items
interbank networks 4 items
international shipping 4 items
jump intensity 4 items
labor flows 4 items
large language models 4 items
loans 4 items
macro-finance 4 items
migration 4 items
monetary policy announcements 4 items
nonlinear methods 4 items
nonlinearity 4 items
on-the-job investment 4 items
optimal monetary policy 4 items
overlapping generations 4 items
present bias 4 items
production function heterogeneity 4 items
public debt sustainability 4 items
reserve requirements 4 items
selection bias 4 items
shipping demand 4 items
shipping prices 4 items
shipping supply 4 items
social insurance 4 items
spatial equilibrium 4 items
strategic rivalry 4 items
taxes 4 items
telecommuting 4 items
time-varying tail risk 4 items
trade agreements 4 items
unconventional monetary policy 4 items
wage posting 4 items
wealth 4 items
Aldrich plan 3 items
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act 3 items
Balance of trade 3 items
Bank mergers 3 items
Banking 3 items
Banks and banking - History 3 items
Bayesian estimation 3 items
Capital accumulation 3 items
Capital investments 3 items
Check collection systems 3 items
Cities and towns 3 items
City-size wage premium 3 items
Consumer Spending 3 items
Delinquency 3 items
Demand for money 3 items
Depressions 3 items
Disclosure of information 3 items
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models 3 items
Economic Geography 3 items
Economic growth 3 items
Establishment-size wage premium 3 items
European Monetary System (Organization) 3 items
Experience 3 items
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 items
Finance 3 items
Financial Distress 3 items
Free trade 3 items
Friedman, Milton 3 items
Government securities 3 items
Government spending policy 3 items
Gravity model 3 items
Great Depression 3 items
Group of Seven countries 3 items
Heterogeneity 3 items
Heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) model 3 items
Home ownership 3 items
Housing - Finance 3 items
Immigrants 3 items
Industrial Revolution 3 items
Industrial productivity 3 items
Inflation (Finance) - Great Britain 3 items
Inflation targeting 3 items
Insurance 3 items
Intellectual Property Rights 3 items
Intermediation (Finance) 3 items
International Monetary Fund 3 items
International business enterprises 3 items
Investments, Foreign - United States 3 items
Keynesian economics 3 items
Knowledge spillovers 3 items
Labor Productivity 3 items
Labor productivity 3 items
Lump-sum Transfers 3 items
Macroeconomics - Econometric models 3 items
Manufactures 3 items
Microeconomics 3 items
Mortality 3 items
Mortgage 3 items
New Keynesian models 3 items
New Stage Theory 3 items
News 3 items
Nowcasting 3 items
Optimal Quantity of Debt 3 items
Pareto tails 3 items
Pollution 3 items
Private Information 3 items
Production Externalities 3 items
Progressive Party 3 items
Public Liquidity 3 items
R&D 3 items
Ramsey redistribution 3 items
Real-time data 3 items
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Research 3 items
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