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Working Paper
The Allocation of Immigrant Talent: Macroeconomic Implications for the U.S. and Across Countries
Birinci, Serdar; Leibovici, Fernando; See, Kurt (2025-03-18)
We quantify the labor market barriers that immigrants face, using an occupational choice model with natives and immigrants of multiple types subject to wedges that distort their allocations. We find sizable output gains from removing immigrant wedges in the U.S., representing 25% of immigrants' overall economic contribution, and that these wedges alter the impact of alternative immigration policies. We harmonize microdata across 19 economies and exploit cross-country variation in immigrant outcomes and estimated wedges to examine the drivers of differences in wedges and gains from their ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-004

Working Paper
What about Japan?
Chien, YiLi; Cole, Harold L.; Lustig, Hanno (2025-03-11)
Over the last decade, the Japanese public sector has primarily borrowed at floating rates while investing in longer-duration risky assets, earning an annual return exceeding 6% of GDP above its funding costs. We quantify the impact of Japan’s low-rate policies on its government and households. The government duration mismatch expands fiscal space when real rates fall, helping the government fulfill promises to older households. A typical younger Japanese household does not have enough duration in its portfolio to continue to finance its spending plan and will be worse off. Low-rate policies ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-028

Working Paper
A Quantitative Analysis of Bank Lending Relationships
Dempsey, Kyle; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2025-03-06)
We study the aggregate consequences of dynamic lending relationships in a model of heterogeneous banks facing financial frictions. We estimate the model's loan demand system on administrative loan-level data: the market power implied by the estimated strength and persistence of relationships yields a long run reduction in credit of 5.9%. Relationships amplify the negative real effects of credit supply shocks, but mute those of negative credit demand shocks. In a financial crisis which destroys 25% of bank net worth, for example, loan volume drops more than twice as much in our baseline model ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-033

Working Paper
Mismatch Unemployment During COVID-19 and the Post-Pandemic Labor Shortages
Birinci, Serdar; Mercan, Yusuf; See, Kurt (2025-02-28)
We examine the extent to which mismatch unemployment—employment losses relative to an efficient allocation where the planner can costlessly reallocate unemployed workers across sectors to maximize output—shaped labor market dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recovery episode characterized by labor shortages. We find that, for the first time in our sample, mismatch unemployment turned negative at the onset of the pandemic. This result suggests that the efficient allocation of job seekers would involve reallocating workers toward longer-tenure and more-productive jobs, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-025

Working Paper
Monetary Policy and the Great COVID-19 Price Level Shock
Andolfatto, David; Martin, Fernando M. (2025-02-14)
We use an analytically tractable DSGE model to study the surge in the cost of living in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. A calibrated version of the model is used to assess the conduct of US monetary and fiscal policy over the 2020-2024 period. The model is also used to estimate the economic and welfare consequences of alternative monetary and fiscal policies. The calibrated model suggests that while the extraordinary fiscal transfers made in 2020-21 generally improved economic welfare, they were significantly larger than needed. These welfare gains came primarily in the form of insurance, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-004

Working Paper
The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI
Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam; Deming, David (2025-02-11)
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is a potentially important new technology, but its impact on the economy depends on the speed and intensity of adoption. This paper reports results from a series of nationally representative U.S. surveys of generative AI use at work and at home. As of late 2024, nearly 40% of the U.S. population age 18-64 uses generative AI. 23% of employed respondents had used generative AI for work at least once in the previous week, and 9% used it every work day. Relative to each technology’s first mass-market product launch, work adoption of generative AI has been ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-027

Working Paper
Parents, Patience, and Persistence: A Novel Theory of Intergenerational College Attainment
Fuller, David L.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2025-02-03)
We present a novel theory of intergenerational persistence in college attainment that does not rely on credit constraints, parental transfers and investments, or persistence in innate ability. The gist of our theory is heterogeneity in time preferences, which are endogenous since parents can teach patience to their children before the children make their college decisions. We show, analytically, that the most patient parents are simultaneously more likely to have a college degree and to educate their children to be patient. Persistence follows. We also show that persistence occurs if and only ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-003

Working Paper
Lifetime Work Hours and the Evolution of the Gender Wage Gap
Leukhina, Oksana; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2025-02-03)
The gender wage gap expanded between 1940 and 1975 but narrowed sharply between 1980 and 1995. We use a human capital accumulation model introduced in Ben-Porath (1967) to assess the role of gender differences in life-cycle profiles of market time and occupation sorting in explaining the gender wage gap dynamics over the long run. Men’s aggregate hours profiles changed little across cohorts, but women’s profiles converged to those of men, and especially so in higher-paying occupations. We calibrate the model to wage data by age, year, gender and occupation, and find that changing time ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-025

Working Paper
The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI
Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam; Deming, David (2025-01-30)
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is a potentially important new technology, but its impact on the economy depends on the speed and intensity of adoption. This paper reports results from a series of nationally representative U.S. surveys of generative AI use at work and at home. As of late 2024, nearly 40 percent of the U.S. population age 18-64 uses generative AI. 23 percent of employed respondents had used generative AI for work at least once in the previous week, and 9 percent used it every work day. Relative to each technology’s first mass-market product launch, work adoption of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-027

Working Paper
The economic effects of a potential armed conflict over Taiwan
Neely, Christopher J. (2025-01-28)
This article examines the likely economic effects of a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan for the U.S. and the world by considering historical precedents. Such a conflict would likely produce a flight-to-safety in the asset market, huge disruptions in international trade, and banking problems, and it would greatly exacerbate existing fiscal pressures. The authorities of the People’s Republic of China would probably try to sell U.S. and other western securities prior to a conflict to avoid sanctions on those assets. Such sales would be temporarily disruptive but would likely have only ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-034

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