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Working Paper
The Implications of Labor Market Heterogeneity for Unemployment Insurance Design
Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt (2026-01-23)
We estimate unemployment insurance (UI) eligibility, take-up, and replacement rates at the individual level and document how they vary with earnings, wealth, and unemployment duration. We extend a widely used framework that combines an incomplete-markets model with a frictional labor market to match our findings. We show that the optimal UI policy becomes substantially more generous. The gap between optimal policies in the two models is largely driven by endogenous UI take-up, which entails a utility cost: only those who value UI the most choose to take it. The welfare gains from insuring ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-026

Working Paper
Why Are the Wealthiest So Wealthy? New Longitudinal Empirical Evidence and Implications for Theories of Wealth Inequality
Hubmer, Joachim; Halvorsen, Elin; Salgado, Sergio; Ozkan, Serdar (2026-01-13)
CORRECT ORDER OF AUTHORS: Hubmer, Halvorsen, Salgado, Ozkan. We study the lifecycle dynamics of wealth inequality using 1993-2019 Norwegian administrative panel data on wealth and income. Employing a novel budget-constraint approach, we decompose the excess wealth of the top 0.1% households relative to the median between ages 45 and 64 into higher saving rates (36%), inheritances (31%), returns (28%), and labor income (5%). One quarter of the wealthiest—the “New Money”—start with negative wealth on average but accumulate rapidly through high labor income and exceptionally high saving ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-013

Working Paper
Partner Similarity and The Sectoral Evolution of China's Trade
de Soyres, Francois; Fisgin, Ece; Gaillard, Alexandre; Santacreu, Ana Maria; Young, Henry L. (2025-12-31)
We study how the sectoral composition of exports and imports shapes bilateral trade flows. Building on earlier similarity indices, we introduce the Partner Similarity Index (PSI), which measures sectoral alignment between a country’s export structure and its partner’s import demand. Embedded in a gravity framework, PSI is a strong predictor of bilateral trade flows after accounting for standard gravity determinants, trade policy variables, and high-dimensional fixed effects. Applied to China and advanced economies, the index reveals growing asymmetries: China’s export basket is ...
Working Papers , Paper 2026-001

Working Paper
Why Are the Wealthiest So Wealthy? New Longitudinal Empirical Evidence and Implications for Theories of Wealth Inequality: Supplemental Material
Hubmer, Joachim; Halvorsen, Elin; Salgado, Sergio; Ozkan, Serdar (2025-12-23)
CORRECT ORDER OF AUTHORS: Hubmer, Halvorsen, Salgado, Ozkan. Online supplemental material for "Why Are the Wealthiest So Wealthy? New Longitudinal Empirical Evidence and Implications for Theories of Wealth Inequality" by Hubmer, Halvorsen, Salgado, and Ozkan (2025).
Working Papers , Paper 2025-033

Working Paper
Taxation and the Global Allocation of Intangibles
LaBelle, Jesse; Martin, Fernando M.; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2025-12-19)
We study how international tax regimes affect the allocation of intangible assets using a new dataset on global patent transfers and a structural model of shifting decisions. Empirically, patent transfers respond strongly to statutory tax differentials during 2007–2012 but much less after major reforms. In the model, heterogeneous patents choose between licensing and shifting based on tax wedges and setup costs. Calibrated to observed shifting rates, the model matches the concentration of royalty income in low-tax jurisdictions. Counterfactuals show that harmonizing tax rates greatly ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-025

Working Paper
An Empirical Analysis of the Cost of Borrowing
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Jordan-Wood, Samuel; Kozlowski, Julian (2025-12-09)
We empirically study firm financing costs using a comprehensive dataset of corporate bonds and bank loans. We construct a measure of the cost of financing, the Excess Debt Premium, which controls for observable debt characteristics. We document two key findings: first, bank loans are about 97 basis points cheaper than corporate bonds when controlling for observable characteristics. Second, there is significant dispersion in borrowing costs, even within the same firm and quarter. The analysis reveals that this within firm variation persists after accounting for instrument type, maturity, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-016

Working Paper
Nominal Maturity Mismatch and the Liquidity Cost of Inflation
Chiang, Yu-Ting; Karger, Ezra (2025-12-09)
We document a liquidity channel through which unexpected inflation generates substantial welfare losses. Households hold nominal liabilities with longer duration than their nominal assets. Due to this mismatch, losses from unexpected inflation concentrate over short horizons while gains accumulate over the long run, harming liquidity-constrained households who cannot borrow against future gains. The 2021–2022 inflation shock caused welfare losses valued at 1.1% of lifetime wealth for the lower half of the wealth distribution—equivalent in dollar terms to 47% of annual consumption. More ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-031

Working Paper
Natural Disasters and Real Asset Prices: What Can We Learn From Tornadoes?
Cohen, Jeffrey P.; Gutkowski, Violeta A. (2025-12-03)
Tornadoes’ impacts on real asset prices have not been extensively explored in a causal analysis framework. We estimate the effects of damage from a major tornado in Little Rock, AR on prices of nearby non-damaged residential real assets. We study how a typical home’s proximity to damaged properties might have led to a discount in the price of the subject property due to blight in the neighborhood. We focus on homes that sold between January 2022 and August 2024, and compare the effects of the March 31, 2023 tornado on sale prices for homes near versus far from damaged houses. For homes ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-001

Working Paper
Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy
Birinci, Serdar; Karahan, Fatih; Mercan, Yusuf; See, Kurt (2025-11-17)
We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model with a frictional labor market and on-the-job search to study how employer-to-employer (EE) transitions affect macroeconomic outcomes and monetary policy. We find that EE dynamics significantly shaped inflation during the Great Recession and COVID-19 recoveries. Despite similar unemployment paths, the former experienced weaker EE transitions and lower inflation. Optimal monetary policy prescribes a strong positive response to EE fluctuations, implying central banks should distinguish between episodes with similar unemployment but different ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-016

Working Paper
Earnings Misperceptions and Household Distress
Sanchez, Juan M.; Song, Stefan (2025-11-12)
Households learn whether income changes are temporary or persistent from their own paychecks. This paper develops a quantitative model of financial distress that incorporates this inference and estimates the extent to which households overweight recent outcomes—diagnostic expectations—using survey data on income beliefs. The model explains distress without assuming extreme impatience and aligns with the observed relationship between income and interest rates. Learning and diagnostic expectations account for about half of delinquencies and one-third of bankruptcies. Diagnostic expectations ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-030

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