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Working Paper
The Erosion of Public Capital in Portugal
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel
(2026-08-10)
This article documents the erosion of Portugal’s public capital stock since 2013 and assesses its macroeconomic implications. I extend the IMF capital series through 2027 using European Commission data and construct scenarios through 2035 for alternative infrastructure-project pipelines. In 2026, the stock is projected to remain 12.2 percent below its 2013 peak, while its ratio to GDP is projected to fall from 77.2 percent in 2013 to 52.6 percent. Short-horizon regressions show positive co-movement between public-capital and labor-productivity growth. A calibrated production-function ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2026-016
Working Paper
Selective College Access and Intergenerational Mobility
Hendricks, Lutz; Koreshkova, Tatyana; Leukhina, Oksana
(2026-08-09)
This paper studies how admissions preferences for lower-income students, alone or combined with information provision, affect college sorting, intergenerational earnings mobility, and aggregate earnings. We develop a quantitative model of college choice with quality-differentiated college types. We find that income-adjusted admissions substantially increase lower-income enrollment at selective colleges and improve intergenerational earnings mobility. Even larger-scale reforms generate only a slight decline in aggregate earnings.
Working Papers
, Paper 2024-030
Working Paper
The Implications of Labor Market Heterogeneity for Unemployment Insurance Design
Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt
(2026-08-05)
We estimate unemployment insurance (UI) eligibility, take-up, and replacement rates at the individual level and document how they vary with earnings, wealth, and unemployment duration. We extend a widely used framework that combines an incomplete-markets model with a frictional labor market to match our findings. We show that the optimal UI policy becomes substantially more generous once the model captures our findings. The gap between optimal policies in the two models is largely driven by endogenous UI take-up, which entails a utility cost: only those who value UI the most choose to claim ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2024-026
Working Paper
Geopolitical Distance and Targeted Trade: Evidence from Product-Level Export Controls
Patro, Bontu Ankit; Santacreu, Ana Maria
(2026-07-14)
Trade policy in advanced economies is closely intertwined with concerns about technology and geopolitical rivalry. Using product-level data on export-related trade interventions, we characterize how contemporary export-side interventions are allocated across products, destinations, and bilateral trade relationships. We show that export controls are broad in regulatory scope but economically concentrated on high-value trade flows. Export controls disproportionately target high-technology products and economically important trade relationships, while geopolitical distance shapes their ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2026-014
Working Paper
The Cost of Capital and Misallocation in the United States
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Kozlowski, Julian; Majerovitz, Jeremy
(2026-07-14)
We propose a framework to estimate capital misallocation using credit registry data and apply it to the United States. A dynamic corporate finance model maps loan-level observables into three rates: the lender’s discount rate, the firm’s private cost of capital, and the social cost of capital. We derive a sufficient statistic for misallocation that depends only on the mean and dispersion of the social cost of capital. Applying the framework to U.S. loan originations, we find substantial heterogeneity in the cost of capital but modest aggregate losses in normal times: reallocating capital ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2025-013
Working Paper
Technology, Geopolitics, and Trade
Lam, Leo C.H.; Santacreu, Ana Maria
(2026-07-09)
We study how geopolitical fragmentation shapes cross-border technology licensing and innovation incentives. We show that bilateral royalty flows vary with geopolitical distance differently from goods trade, and that this relationship depends on intellectual property enforcement. To interpret these facts, we develop a growth-trade model in which geopolitical risk weakens licensing enforceability when intellectual property rights are poorly protected. Royalty payments reflect both technology adoption and licensing prices: weaker enforcement can reduce diffusion while inducing firms to reprice ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2025-029
Working Paper
The Tradition of Federal Reserve Independence
Rose, Jonathan D.; Wheelock, David C.
(2026-07-06)
The tradition of Federal Reserve independence is encoded in statute in important ways but is also rooted in norms and practices. To articulate this tradition, we discuss how those norms and practices emerged historically from compromises over the concentration of power, actions taken by political leaders and Fed officials to define the boundaries of the Fed’s independence, and in reaction to evolving monetary theories and practices. We argue that understanding these historic roots provides essential context for evaluating challenges to the Fed's independence today and in the future.
Working Papers
, Paper 2026-013
Working Paper
Sluggish news reactions: A combinatorial approach for synchronizing stock jumps
Bouamara, Nabil; Boudt, Kris; Laurent, Sébastien; Neely, Christopher J.
(2026-07-06)
Stock prices often react sluggishly to news: latent efficient prices may jump immediately, while observed transaction prices adjust with a delay or piecewise, producing mistimed jumps. Econometricians typically treat these sluggish reactions as microstructure effects and settle for a coarse sampling grid to guard against them. We introduce a combinatorial method that synchronizes mistimed stock jump returns on a fine grid, allowing us to better approximate common jumps in the efficient prices of related stocks. In an application to Dow 30 data, the synchronized jumps produce better jump ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2024-006
Working Paper
When Regional Isn't Aggregate: Joint Estimation of Government Transfer Multipliers
Conley, Timothy G.; Dupor, Bill; Li, Rong; Zhou, Yijiang
(2026-07-03)
We develop a framework that jointly identifies local and aggregate effects of government transfer shocks with cross-state spillovers. Using the aggregate Romer–RomerSocial Security transfer shock series and relative state-level exposure to the shock, we combine the two variation sources to recover the local, spillover, and aggregate multipliers. The specification is aggregation-consistent: state coefficients sum to the aggregate response, making the decomposition of the national effect into local and spillover components transparent. The aggregate multiplier is positive and roughly half the ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2025-028
Working Paper
What Drives Household Financial Distress? The Role of Earnings Misperceptions
Sanchez, Juan M.; Song, Stefan
(2026-07-02)
Why do households borrow heavily and experience financial distress? We develop and estimate a heterogeneous-agent model of unsecured credit and default in which households learn about income persistence and overreact to recent income realizations. We estimate overreaction using survey measures of income expectations and forecast errors, and the remaining parameters to match household debt and financial distress. Information frictions and estimated overreaction account for roughly half of delinquencies and one-third of bankruptcies, and improve the model’s fit of the observed negative ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2025-030
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H27 2 items
H32 2 items
H4 2 items
H55 2 items
H73 2 items
I38 2 items
J30 2 items
J40 2 items
K10 2 items
L22 2 items
M16 2 items
O3 2 items
O51 2 items
O57 2 items
Q53 2 items
R53 2 items
Z0 2 items
A14 1 items
A20 1 items
A21 1 items
B0 1 items
B1 1 items
B2 1 items
C1 1 items
C10 1 items
C18 1 items
C21 1 items
C26 1 items
C34 1 items
C43 1 items
C51 1 items
C54 1 items
C71 1 items
C8 1 items
C81 1 items
C82 1 items
D12 1 items
D51 1 items
D62 1 items
D7 1 items
D78 1 items
D86 1 items
D9 1 items
D90 1 items
E02 1 items
E25 1 items
E49 1 items
E69 1 items
F00 1 items
F02 1 items
F17 1 items
F32 1 items
F36 1 items
F37 1 items
F50 1 items
F51 1 items
F52 1 items
F54 1 items
F55 1 items
F65 1 items
G30 1 items
H1 1 items
H22 1 items
H53 1 items
H57 1 items
H62 1 items
H77 1 items
H8 1 items
H81 1 items
H84 1 items
H87 1 items
I1 1 items
I21 1 items
I22 1 items
I24 1 items
I28 1 items
I31 1 items
J01 1 items
J38 1 items
J42 1 items
J44 1 items
J6 1 items
J68 1 items
J7 1 items
K35 1 items
L72 1 items
L86 1 items
L93 1 items
M12 1 items
M50 1 items
M52 1 items
M55 1 items
N00 1 items
N10 1 items
N2 1 items
O2 1 items
O32 1 items
O38 1 items
O5 1 items
P16 1 items
P23 1 items
P24 1 items
P51 1 items
Q02 1 items
Q32 1 items
Q54 1 items
Q58 1 items
R0 1 items
R13 1 items
R2 1 items
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international trade 30 items
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human capital 27 items
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time series analysis 22 items
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job search 21 items
liquidity 21 items
unemployment 20 items
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Heterogeneous Agents 19 items
Macroeconomics 19 items
Stock market 18 items
discretion 18 items
Economic development 17 items
Fiscal policy 17 items
Liquidity (Economics) 17 items
Labor market 16 items
Rational expectations (Economic theory) 16 items
misallocation 16 items
technology adoption 16 items
Asset pricing 15 items
Bank supervision 15 items
Default 15 items
Regional economics 15 items
government debt 15 items
Federal Open Market Committee 14 items
Job Search 14 items
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credit spreads 14 items
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deficit 13 items
institutional design 13 items
intellectual property rights 13 items
political frictions 13 items
recession 13 items
time-consistency 13 items
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business cycles 12 items
productivity 12 items
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high-frequency data 11 items
mobility 11 items
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population dynamics 10 items
technology diffusion 10 items
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education 8 items
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bank lending 7 items
banking panics 7 items
banks 7 items
capital asset pricing model 7 items
cluster analysis 7 items
contagion 7 items
employment 7 items
endogenous growth 7 items
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generative artificial intelligence (AI) 7 items
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innovation 7 items
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evergreening 6 items
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investment 6 items
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backloaded incentives 5 items
bequests 5 items
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loans 5 items
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monetary policy announcements 5 items
monitoring 5 items
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out-of-sample 5 items
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Exchange rate 4 items
Federal Reserve System - History 4 items
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bailouts 4 items
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capital controls 4 items
central bank independence 4 items
conditional encompassing 4 items
credit market participation 4 items
economic geography 4 items
economic growth 4 items
effective lower bound 4 items
eurodollar futures 4 items
extensive and intensive margins 4 items
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financial markets 4 items
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fiscal dominance 4 items
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gravity 4 items
health production 4 items
health reform 4 items
housing prices 4 items
inflation forecasts 4 items
interbank networks 4 items
international shipping 4 items
labor flows 4 items
large language models 4 items
nonlinear methods 4 items
nonlinearity 4 items
on-the-job investment 4 items
optimal monetary policy 4 items
overlapping generations 4 items
policy analysis 4 items
present bias 4 items
price level 4 items
public debt sustainability 4 items
public finance of higher education 4 items
reserve requirements 4 items
selection bias 4 items
shipping demand 4 items
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social insurance 4 items
spatial equilibrium 4 items
taxes 4 items
technology transfer 4 items
telecommuting 4 items
trade agreements 4 items
wage posting 4 items
wealth 4 items
Aldrich plan 3 items
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act 3 items
Balance of trade 3 items
Bank mergers 3 items
Banking 3 items
Banks and banking - History 3 items
Capital accumulation 3 items
Capital investments 3 items
Check collection systems 3 items
Cities and towns 3 items
City-size wage premium 3 items
Consumer Spending 3 items
Delinquency 3 items
Demand for money 3 items
Depressions 3 items
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Economic Geography 3 items
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Establishment-size wage premium 3 items
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Finance 3 items
Financial Distress 3 items
Free trade 3 items
Friedman, Milton 3 items
Government securities 3 items
Government spending policy 3 items
Gravity model 3 items
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Group of Seven countries 3 items
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Heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) model 3 items
Home ownership 3 items
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Inflation targeting 3 items
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Manufactures 3 items
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