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Working Paper
The Heterogeneous Impacts of Job Displacement: Evidence from Canadian Job Separation Records
Birinci, Serdar; Park, Youngmin; See, Kurt
(2025-08-20)
When estimating earnings losses upon job separations, existing strategies focus on separations in mass layoffs to distinguish involuntary separations from voluntary separations. We revisit the measurement of the sources and consequences of involuntary separations using Canadian job separation records. We refine existing strategies and find that only a quarter of mass-layoff separations are indeed layoffs. We provide guidance on how to effectively filter out spurious separations when using databases with sparse information on separations. Isolating involuntary mass-layoff separations with our ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2023-022
Working Paper
The Heterogeneous Impacts of Job Displacement: Evidence from Canadian Job Separation Records
Birinci, Serdar; Park, Youngmin; See, Kurt
(2025-08-19)
When estimating earnings losses upon job separations, existing strategies focus on separations in mass layoffs to distinguish involuntary separations from voluntary separations. We revisit the measurement of the sources and consequences of involuntary separations using Canadian job separation records. We refine existing strategies and find that only a quarter of mass-layoff separations are indeed layoffs. We provide guidance on how to effectively filter out spurious separations when using databases with sparse information on separations. Isolating involuntary mass-layoff separations with our ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2023-022
Working Paper
Dissecting the Great Retirement Boom
Birinci, Serdar; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; See, Kurt
(2025-08-19)
Between 2020 and 2023, the fraction of retirees in the working-age population in the U.S. increased above its pre-pandemic trend. Several explanations have been proposed to rationalize this gap, including increases in net worth, the deterioration of the labor market with higher job separations, the expansion of fiscal transfer programs, and higher mortality risk. We develop an incomplete markets, overlapping generations model with a frictional labor market to quantitatively study the interaction of these factors and decompose their contributions to the rise in retirements. We find that new ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2024-017
Working Paper
Import Source Reallocation and Aggregate Price Dynamics in the United States
Chinagorom-Abiakalam, Dawn; Leibovici, Fernando
(2025-08-15)
This paper studies the impact of changes in the composition of U.S. import sources on aggregate import prices and their implications for consumer prices. We decompose import price changes into within-source price adjustments and changes in sourcing composition. Using bilateral import data, we find that sourcing from lower-cost suppliers, particularly China, put sustained downward pressure on aggregate import prices until the mid-2010s. Since then, shifts away from China have partially reversed this effect, raising both import and consumer prices. We also find sourcing reallocation responds ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2025-018
Working Paper
When Liquidity Matters: Firm Balance Sheets during Large Crises
Ebsim, Mahdi; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Kozlowski, Julian
(2025-08-14)
We study how aggregate shocks shape the joint dynamics of credit spreads, debt, and liquid asset holdings for nonfinancial firms, focusing on the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and COVID-19. Both episodes saw sharp credit spread increases and investment declines, but debt and liquidity fell during the GFC and rose during COVID-19. Cross-sectionally, leverage drove spreads and investment in the GFC, while liquidity dominated during COVID-19. We build a macro-finance model of firm capital structure with a liquidity motive for working capital. Calibrated to data, it attributes the GFC to real and ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2025-019
Working Paper
When Liquidity Matters: Firm Balance Sheets during Large Crises
Ebsim, Mahdi; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Kozlowski, Julian
(2025-08-14)
We study how aggregate shocks shape the joint dynamics of credit spreads, debt, and liquid asset holdings for nonfinancial firms, focusing on the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and COVID-19. Both episodes saw sharp credit spread increases and investment declines, but debt and liquidity fell during the GFC and rose during COVID-19. Cross-sectionally, leverage drove spreads and investment in the GFC, while liquidity dominated during COVID-19. We build a macro-finance model of firm capital structure with a liquidity motive for working capital. Calibrated to data, it attributes the GFC to real and ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2025-019
Working Paper
Growth-at-Risk is Investment-at-Risk
Amburgey, Aaron; McCracken, Michael W.
(2025-08-14)
We investigate the role financial conditions play in the composition of U.S. growth-at-risk. We document that, by a wide margin, growth-at-risk is investment-at-risk. That is, if financial conditions indicate U.S. real GDP growth will be in the lower tail of its conditional distribution, we know that quantitatively, the main contributor is a decline in investment. Consumption contributes under extreme financial stress. Government spending and net exports do not play a role. We show that leverage plays a key role in determining both consumption- and investment at-risk, which provides support ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2023-020
Working Paper
Parents, Patience, and Persistence: A Novel Theory of Intergenerational College Attainment
Fuller, David L.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume
(2025-08-13)
We present a theory of intergenerational persistence in college attainment (a Bachelor's degree, BD) guided by two well-documented empirical regularities: (i) patient individuals are more likely to be college graduates and (ii) patience persists across generations because parents choose to transmit it to their children, among other non-cognitive traits. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to formalize and evaluate these mechanisms in a general equilibrium model. In the model, (i) and (ii) are endogenous outcomes implying college persistence. "Standard mechanisms," i.e., credit ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2025-003
Working Paper
Monetary Policy and the Great COVID-19 Price Level Shock
Andolfatto, David; Martin, Fernando M.
(2025-07-28)
We employ a small-scale dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the surge in inflation following the COVID-19 pandemic. A calibrated version of the model is used to assess U.S. monetary and fiscal policy over the 2020–2024 period and to estimate the economic and welfare consequences of alternative policy scenarios. The analysis suggests that the large fiscal transfers of 2020–2021 were broadly welfare-improving, albeit larger than necessary. Given the fiscal stance in place, optimal monetary policy would not have generated a materially different price level dynamic. While monetary ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2025-004
Working Paper
Private Information and Optimal Infant Industry Protection
Riezman, Raymond; Ravikumar, B.; Zhang, Yuzhe
(2025-07-24)
We study infant industry protection using a dynamic model in which the industry's cost is initially higher than that of foreign competitors. The industry can stochastically lower its cost via learning by doing. Whether the industry has transitioned to low cost is private information. Using a mechanism-design approach, we solve for the optimal protection policy that induces the industry to reveal its true cost. We show that (i) optimal protection, measured by infant industry output, declines over time and is less than that under public information and (ii) eventual viability of the infant ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2022-013
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D11 2 items
D13 2 items
D22 2 items
D60 2 items
D70 2 items
D71 2 items
D72 2 items
E0 2 items
E27 2 items
F23 2 items
F3 2 items
F40 2 items
G10 2 items
G23 2 items
G34 2 items
H12 2 items
H20 2 items
H23 2 items
H27 2 items
H32 2 items
H54 2 items
H55 2 items
H73 2 items
I30 2 items
I38 2 items
J40 2 items
L22 2 items
O15 2 items
O3 2 items
O57 2 items
Q53 2 items
R53 2 items
Z0 2 items
A14 1 items
B0 1 items
B1 1 items
B2 1 items
C02 1 items
C1 1 items
C10 1 items
C18 1 items
C21 1 items
C26 1 items
C34 1 items
C43 1 items
C51 1 items
C54 1 items
C71 1 items
C8 1 items
C81 1 items
C82 1 items
D12 1 items
D51 1 items
D62 1 items
D7 1 items
D78 1 items
D86 1 items
D9 1 items
D90 1 items
E02 1 items
E25 1 items
E49 1 items
E69 1 items
F00 1 items
F02 1 items
F17 1 items
F32 1 items
F36 1 items
F37 1 items
F50 1 items
F51 1 items
F52 1 items
F54 1 items
F55 1 items
F65 1 items
G30 1 items
G5 1 items
H1 1 items
H22 1 items
H4 1 items
H51 1 items
H57 1 items
H62 1 items
H77 1 items
H8 1 items
H81 1 items
H84 1 items
H87 1 items
I1 1 items
I22 1 items
I28 1 items
I31 1 items
J01 1 items
J30 1 items
J38 1 items
J44 1 items
J6 1 items
J68 1 items
J7 1 items
K10 1 items
K35 1 items
L93 1 items
M12 1 items
M50 1 items
M52 1 items
M55 1 items
N00 1 items
N10 1 items
N2 1 items
O2 1 items
O32 1 items
O38 1 items
O5 1 items
O51 1 items
P16 1 items
P23 1 items
P24 1 items
P51 1 items
Q02 1 items
Q32 1 items
Q54 1 items
Q58 1 items
R0 1 items
R13 1 items
R4 1 items
Z1 1 items
Z13 1 items
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FILTER BY Keywords
Monetary policy 116 items
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COVID-19 55 items
monetary policy 54 items
Inflation (Finance) 51 items
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inflation 37 items
Forecasting 36 items
Incomplete Markets 36 items
fiscal policy 35 items
Ramsey Problem 33 items
Interest rates 31 items
Foreign exchange rates 30 items
Prices 27 items
Foreign exchange 25 items
International trade 25 items
Unemployment 24 items
international trade 24 items
Money 23 items
Taxation 23 items
human capital 23 items
inequality 23 items
time series analysis 23 items
Money supply 21 items
liquidity 20 items
Banks and banking 19 items
Heterogeneous Agents 19 items
Macroeconomics 19 items
Great Recession 18 items
Stock market 18 items
discretion 18 items
Economic development 17 items
Fiscal policy 17 items
Liquidity (Economics) 17 items
Labor market 16 items
Rational expectations (Economic theory) 16 items
unemployment 16 items
Asset pricing 15 items
Bank supervision 15 items
Default 15 items
Regional economics 15 items
Federal Open Market Committee 14 items
Job Search 14 items
Mortgages 14 items
Vector autoregression 14 items
government debt 14 items
misallocation 14 items
Credit 13 items
International finance 13 items
Monetary Policy 13 items
Productivity 13 items
Sovereign Debt 13 items
Stock exchanges 13 items
Wages 13 items
deficit 13 items
institutional design 13 items
political frictions 13 items
recession 13 items
time-consistency 13 items
Banks and banking, Central 12 items
Consumption (Economics) 12 items
Economic forecasting 12 items
Federal funds rate 12 items
Fiscal Policy 12 items
job search 12 items
Country Risk 11 items
Crises 11 items
Financial crises 11 items
Monetary policy - United States 11 items
Monetary theory 11 items
technology adoption 11 items
Business Cycles 10 items
Capital 10 items
Deposit insurance 10 items
Econometrics 10 items
Economic conditions 10 items
Federal Reserve System 10 items
Investments 10 items
Markov-switching 10 items
business cycles 10 items
convergence 10 items
credit spreads 10 items
intellectual property rights 10 items
mobility 10 items
population dynamics 10 items
technology diffusion 10 items
Bank failures 9 items
Bankruptcy 9 items
Gambling industry 9 items
Great Britain 9 items
Income distribution 9 items
Mortgage loans 9 items
Phillips curve 9 items
Recessions 9 items
Risk 9 items
Stock - Prices 9 items
credit constraints 9 items
earnings dynamics 9 items
earnings losses 9 items
emerging markets 9 items
employer effects 9 items
job displacement 9 items
labor markets 9 items
productivity 9 items
Assets (Accounting) 8 items
Capital Taxation 8 items
Demography 8 items
Education 8 items
Federal Reserve 8 items
Human Capital 8 items
Income 8 items
Inventories 8 items
Maturity 8 items
Misallocation 8 items
Price Dispersion 8 items
Regional Economics 8 items
Social security 8 items
Technology 8 items
Terrorism 8 items
Unemployment Insurance 8 items
austerity 8 items
debt sustainability 8 items
economic transition 8 items
education 8 items
financial development 8 items
financial frictions 8 items
fiscal multipliers 8 items
fiscal rules 8 items
forecasting 8 items
insurance 8 items
job mobility 8 items
life expectancy 8 items
pandemic 8 items
prediction 8 items
quantitative easing 8 items
royalty payments 8 items
spillovers 8 items
vacancies 8 items
war 8 items
welfare 8 items
Bank reserves 7 items
Bretton Woods 7 items
Capital movements 7 items
Employment 7 items
Equilibrium (Economics) 7 items
Inequality 7 items
Inflation 7 items
Liquidity 7 items
Malthus 7 items
Money theory 7 items
Production (Economic theory) 7 items
Quantitative Easing 7 items
Sign Restrictions 7 items
Solow 7 items
Structural Vector Autoregressions 7 items
Subprime mortgage 7 items
Supply and Demand Shocks 7 items
Uniform Pricing 7 items
Welfare 7 items
agricultural employment 7 items
bank lending 7 items
banking panics 7 items
banks 7 items
capital asset pricing model 7 items
cluster analysis 7 items
contagion 7 items
heterogeneity 7 items
heterogeneous agents 7 items
high-frequency data 7 items
labor supply 7 items
layoffs 7 items
mortality 7 items
quits 7 items
real-time data 7 items
recursive contracts 7 items
research and development 7 items
retirement 7 items
trade 7 items
Capital Flows 6 items
Community banks 6 items
Costly Information 6 items
Credit unions 6 items
Debt 6 items
Discount 6 items
Dollar, American 6 items
Exports 6 items
Financial institutions 6 items
Financial markets 6 items
Germany 6 items
Gini coefficients 6 items
IPO 6 items
Immiseration 6 items
Inflows 6 items
Latin America 6 items
Markov-perfect equilibrium 6 items
Multiple Applications 6 items
Open market operations 6 items
Optimal Capital Taxation 6 items
Optimal Fiscal Policy 6 items
Optimal Public Debt 6 items
Outflows 6 items
Petroleum industry and trade 6 items
Rate of return 6 items
Saving and investment 6 items
Tariff 6 items
Tax Smoothing 6 items
Taylor's rule 6 items
Technology diffusion 6 items
Trade 6 items
VAR 6 items
attrition 6 items
bank closures 6 items
bond markets 6 items
college quality 6 items
crises 6 items
default 6 items
economic conditions - United States 6 items
employment 6 items
endogenous growth 6 items
evergreening 6 items
financial crises 6 items
immigration 6 items
income inequality 6 items
inference 6 items
innovation 6 items
investment 6 items
persistent private information 6 items
reallocation 6 items
remote work 6 items
search frictions 6 items
sovereign debt 6 items
startups 6 items
venture capital 6 items
wage dispersion 6 items
zombie firms 6 items
Asymmetry 5 items
Beveridge curve 5 items
Consumer behavior 5 items
Consumption 5 items
Corporations - Finance 5 items
Emerging Markets 5 items
Federal Reserve Act 5 items
Fiscal Multipliers 5 items
Fiscal Policy and Household Behavior 5 items
Foreign aid program 5 items
Housing 5 items
Human capital 5 items
Investments, Foreign 5 items
Modified Golden Rule 5 items
Nonlinearity 5 items
North American Free Trade Agreement 5 items
Restructuring 5 items
Technology - Economic aspects 5 items
asymmetry 5 items
backloaded incentives 5 items
capital gains taxation 5 items
classification errors 5 items
cross-border patents 5 items
demographics 5 items
dynamic contracts 5 items
evaluating 5 items
exchange rate 5 items
financial distress 5 items
financial repression 5 items
funding rounds 5 items
good deal 5 items
heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) models 5 items
heterogeneous households 5 items
higher-order earnings risk 5 items
incomplete markets 5 items
intergenerational mobility 5 items
large-scale asset purchases 5 items
life cycle economies 5 items
local-spillover decomposition 5 items
military spending 5 items
monitoring 5 items
neighborhood segregation 5 items
nominal GDP targeting 5 items
out-of-sample 5 items
quantiles 5 items
racial disparities 5 items
returns to scale 5 items
rules 5 items
structural breaks 5 items
structural estimation 5 items
trade liberalization 5 items
trade policy 5 items
volatility 5 items
wages 5 items
work from home 5 items
worker reallocation 5 items
yield curves 5 items
Agency securities 4 items
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China 4 items
Contracting out 4 items
Credit Spreads 4 items
Development 4 items
Economic policy 4 items
Education - Economic aspects 4 items
Emigration and immigration 4 items
Employment (Economic theory) 4 items
European Economic Community 4 items
Exchange Rate 4 items
Exchange Rate Management 4 items
Exchange rate 4 items
Federal Reserve System - History 4 items
Federal funds market (United States) 4 items
Fiscal Multiplier 4 items
Foreclosure 4 items
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Home equity loans 4 items
Housing - Prices 4 items
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Large-Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP) 4 items
Mexico 4 items
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Monetary Policy Rules 4 items
Monetary policy - Great Britain 4 items
Occupational Barriers 4 items
Optimal Debt 4 items
Panic of 1907 4 items
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Regression analysis 4 items
Seigniorage 4 items
Stocks 4 items
Time Inconsistency 4 items
Time-Varying Risk Premium 4 items
Treasury bond short interest 4 items
Treasury securities 4 items
War - Economic aspects 4 items
artificial intelligence 4 items
bailouts 4 items
business cycle accounting 4 items
capital controls 4 items
cojumps 4 items
conditional encompassing 4 items
credit market participation 4 items
earnings risk 4 items
effective lower bound 4 items
eurodollar futures 4 items
extensive and intensive margins 4 items
female labor force participation 4 items
financial markets 4 items
firms dynamics 4 items
fiscal dominance 4 items
gender wage gap 4 items
generative artificial intelligence (AI) 4 items
government transfers 4 items
health production 4 items
health reform 4 items
hours 4 items
household behavior 4 items
inflation forecasts 4 items
interbank networks 4 items
international shipping 4 items
job transitions 4 items
labor flows 4 items
large language models 4 items
migration 4 items
mismatch 4 items
natural language processing 4 items
nonlinear methods 4 items
on-the-job investment 4 items
optimal monetary policy 4 items
overlapping generations 4 items
present bias 4 items
production function heterogeneity 4 items
public debt sustainability 4 items
reserve requirements 4 items
risk 4 items
selection bias 4 items
shipping demand 4 items
shipping prices 4 items
shipping supply 4 items
social insurance 4 items
social security 4 items
subjective expectations 4 items
systemic risk 4 items
taxation 4 items
telecommuting 4 items
total factor productivity (TFP) 4 items
trade agreements 4 items
unemployment insurance 4 items
wage posting 4 items
Aldrich plan 3 items
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act 3 items
Balance of trade 3 items
Bank mergers 3 items
Banking 3 items
Banks and banking - History 3 items
Capital accumulation 3 items
Capital investments 3 items
Check collection systems 3 items
Cities and towns 3 items
City-size wage premium 3 items
Consumer Spending 3 items
Delinquency 3 items
Demand for money 3 items
Depressions 3 items
Disclosure of information 3 items
Economic Geography 3 items
Economic growth 3 items
Establishment-size wage premium 3 items
European Monetary System (Organization) 3 items
Experience 3 items
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) news 3 items
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 items
Finance 3 items
Financial Distress 3 items
Free trade 3 items
Friedman, Milton 3 items
Government securities 3 items
Government spending 3 items
Government spending policy 3 items
Gravity model 3 items
Great Depression 3 items
Group of Seven countries 3 items
Heterogeneity 3 items
Heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) model 3 items
Home ownership 3 items
Housing - Finance 3 items
Immigrants 3 items
Industrial Revolution 3 items
Industrial productivity 3 items
Inflation (Finance) - Great Britain 3 items
Inflation targeting 3 items
Insurance 3 items
Intellectual Property Rights 3 items
Intermediation (Finance) 3 items
International Monetary Fund 3 items
International business enterprises 3 items
Investments, Foreign - United States 3 items
Keynesian economics 3 items
Knowledge spillovers 3 items
Labor Productivity 3 items
Labor productivity 3 items
Lump-sum Transfers 3 items
Macroeconomics - Econometric models 3 items
Manufactures 3 items
Microeconomics 3 items
Mortality 3 items
Mortgage 3 items
New Stage Theory 3 items
News 3 items
Nowcasting 3 items
Optimal Quantity of Debt 3 items
Pareto tails 3 items
Pollution 3 items
Private Information 3 items
Production Externalities 3 items
Progressive Party 3 items
Public Liquidity 3 items
R&D 3 items
Real-time data 3 items
Recession 3 items
Redistribution 3 items
Regional Variation 3 items
Research 3 items
Retirement 3 items
Risk management 3 items
Role of Public Debt 3 items
Skill Biased Technical Change 3 items
Spreads 3 items
Taxes 3 items
Technology Adoption 3 items
Technology Licensing 3 items
Universal Basic Income 3 items
Wage bargaining 3 items
Wealth 3 items
Women - Employment 3 items
aggregate dynamics 3 items
aggregation 3 items
airport closing 3 items
anticipatory effects 3 items
asset prices 3 items
banking 3 items
bequests 3 items
capital flows 3 items
central bank 3 items
central bank communication 3 items
central bank independence 3 items
central banks 3 items
commuting 3 items
consumption 3 items
credit card debt 3 items
data set comparisons 3 items
development 3 items
dynamic price effects 3 items
economic geography 3 items
economic growth 3 items
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