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Working Paper
The Dual Beveridge Curve
Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina (2025-05-07)
The recent behavior of the U.S. Beveridge curve — its outward shift and changing slope — has puzzled economists and is difficult to reconcile with standard explanations based on gradual structural change or declining matching efficiency. We propose a dual-vacancy model in which firms post two distinct types of vacancies: those targeting unemployed workers and those designed to hire already employed workers through poaching. These two types of vacancies operate in segmented sub-markets with separate matching processes. Using U.S. labor market data from 1978 to 2024, we estimate the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-021

Working Paper
Scalable versus Productive Technologies
Hubmer, Joachim; Chan, Mons; Ozkan, Serdar; Salgado, Sergio; Hong, Guangbin (2025-05-06)
CORRECT ORDER OF AUTHORS: Hubmer, Chan, Ozkan, Salgado, Hong. Are larger firms more productive, more scalable, or both? We use firm-level panel data from thirteen countries and employ a broad set of methods to estimate factor elasticities---capturing returns to scale (RTS)---and total factor productivity (TFP). We find substantial RTS heterogeneity within industries, with larger firms exhibiting higher RTS driven by greater intermediate input elasticities. TFP, by contrast, rises with firm size only up to the top decile before declining. Incorporating RTS heterogeneity into a standard model ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-019

Working Paper
Mark Carlson’s The Young Fed: A Review Essay
Rose, Jonathan D. (2025-05-02)
Working Papers , Paper 2025-008

Working Paper
College Access and Intergenerational Mobility
Hendricks, Lutz; Koreshkova, Tatyana; Leukhina, Oksana (2025-04-11)
This paper studies how college admissions preferences for lower-income students affect intergenerational earnings mobility. We develop a quantitative model of college choice with quality-differentiated colleges. We find that admissions preferences substantially increase lower-income enrollment in selective colleges and intergenerational earnings mobility. The associated losses of aggregate earnings are very small.
Working Papers , Paper 2024-030

Working Paper
The Impact of Bretton Woods International Capital Controls on the Global Economy and the Value of Geopolitical Stability: A General Equilibrium Analysis
Ohanian, Lee E.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Van Patten, Diana; Wright, Mark L. J. (2025-04-11)
This paper quantifies the positive and normative effects of Bretton Woods capital controls on global economic activity. It applies a three-region DSGE model of the U.S., Western Europe, and the Rest of the World (ROW) that measures capital controls using observed regional consumption growth differences. We find sizable controls during Bretton Woods that prevented ROW capital from flowing to the U.S., and which reduced U.S. welfare and raised ROW welfare. By preventing capital flight in developing economies, we find that Bretton Woods controls promoted the U.S. foreign policy objective of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-042

Working Paper
On the Transition to Sustained Growth: The Importance of Recent Agricultural Employment
Ravikumar, B.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2025-04-08)
We study a model where a single good can be produced using a diminishing-returns technology (Malthus) and a constant-returns technology (Solow). We map the former to agriculture and show that the share of agricultural employment declines at a constant rate during the economic transition and that recent observations on the share are sufficient to estimate the onset of transition. Our model implies that (i) output growth is higher and increasing after the onset of transition, (ii) during the transition, it is a first-order autoregressive process, and (iii) the rate of decline in the share of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-026

Working Paper
Hours Worked and Lifetime Earnings Inequality
Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam; Rogerson, Richard (2025-04-06)
We document large differences in lifetime hours of work using data from the NLSY79 and argue that these differences are an important source of inequality in lifetime earnings. To establish this we develop and calibrate a rich heterogeneous agent model of labor supply and human capital accumulation that allows for heterogeneity in preferences for work, initial human capital and learning ability, as well as idiosyncratic shocks to human capital throughout the life-cycle. Our calibrated model implies that almost 20 percent of the variance in lifetime earnings is accounted for by differences in ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-024

Working Paper
Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation: Implications for Trade, Financial Flows, and Economic Policy
Airaudo, Florencia; de Soyres, Francois; Richards, Keith; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2025-03-31)
Recent geopolitical tensions have revived interest in understanding the economic consequences of geopolitical fragmentation. Using bilateral trade flows, portfolio investment data, and detailed records of economic policy interventions, we revisit widely-used geopolitical distance metrics, specifically the Ideal Point Distance (IPD) derived from United Nations General Assembly voting. We document substantial variability in measured fragmentation, driven significantly by methodological choices related to sample periods and vote categories, especially in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-006

Working Paper
Was the Post-Lockdown Inflation Surge Mainly Supply Driven?
Dupor, Bill; Hogan, Marie (2025-03-31)
By December 2022, the price level of personal consumption expenditures on core goods and services had risen more than 10 percent over the preceding two years. This paper studies consumption price and quantity changes at the disaggregate level using a generalization of Shapiro’s (2024) inflation decomposition method. Categories with inflation and consumption growth innovations that positively co-move are labeled as experiencing current demand-pull inflation. Negative co-movement in the two innovations indicates current supply-push inflation. Category inflation is then decomposed into supply ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-007

Working Paper
Fed-Driven Systemic Tail Risk: High-Frequency Measurement, Evidence and Implications
Erdemlioglu, Deniz; Neely, Christopher J.; Yang, Xiye (2025-03-30)
We develop a framework to measure market-wide (systemic) tail risk in the cross-section of asset returns. Using high-frequency data on individual U.S. stocks and sector-specific ETF portfolios, we estimate time-varying jump intensities and multi-asset tail risk around Fed policy announcements. While most FOMC announcements generate systemic left-tail risk, there is no evidence that macro announcements have a similar effect. The magnitude of the tail risk induced by Fed policy announcements varies over the business cycle, peaks during the global financial crisis and remains high during phases ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-016

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