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Working Paper
Time Averaging Meets Labor Supplies of Heckman, Lochner, and Taber
Graves, Sebastian; Gregory, Victoria; Ljungqvist, Lars; Sargent, Thomas J. (2025-01-08)
We add endogenous career lengths to the Heckman, Lochner, and Taber (1998a) (HLT) model with its credit markets and within-period labor supply indivisibilities, all of which are essential features of Ljungqvist and Sargent (2006) “time-averaging.” A benchmark social security system puts all workers at corner solutions of their retirement decisions. That lets our model reproduce most outcomes in HLT’s model with its inelastic labor supply and mandatory retirement date for all types of workers. Eight types of workers are indexed by pairs of innate abilities and choices of education ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-012

Working Paper
A journal ranking based on central bank citations
Auer, Raphael; Cornelli, Giulio; Zimmermann, Christian (2024-12-17)
We present a ranking of journals geared towards measuring the policy relevance of research. We compute simple impact factors that count only citations made in central bank publications. Our baseline ranking focuses on the period 2014–2023 and examines all items published in the Research Papers in Economics (RePEc) database. This ranking confirms the high policy relevance of journals specialising in macro, monetary and international economics. Also, the major general interest economic journals feature reasonably well in this ranking. In contrast, the major finance journals fare somewhat less ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-027

Working Paper
Measuring Trends in Work From Home: Evidence from Six U.S. Datasets
Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam; Caplan, Aidan; Caplan, Tristan (2024-12-12)
This paper documents the prevalence of work from home (WFH) in six U.S. data sets. These surveys measure WFH using different questions, reference periods, samples, and survey collection methods. Once we construct samples and WFH measures that are comparable across surveys, all surveys broadly agree about the trajectory of aggregate WFH since the Covid-19 outbreak. The most important source of disagreement in the level of WFH across surveys is in WFH by self-employed workers; by contrast, surveys closely agree on rates of WFH among employees. All surveys agree that in 2024 WFH remains ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-023

Working Paper
Heterogeneity in Work From Home: Evidence from Six U.S. Datasets
Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam; Caplan, Aidan; Caplan, Tristan (2024-12-12)
This paper documents heterogeneity in work from home (WFH) across six U.S. data sets. These surveys agree that pre-pandemic differences in WFH rates by sex, education, and state of residence expanded following the Covid-19 outbreak. The surveys also show similar post-pandemic trends in WFH by firm size and industry. We show that an industry's WFH potential was highly correlated with actual WFH during the first year or two of the Covid-19 pandemic, but that this correlation was much weaker before and after the pandemic, suggesting that WFH potential is a necessary but not sufficient ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-038

Working Paper
The Nonlinear Effects of Fiscal Policy
Brinca, Pedro; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Ferreira, Miguel H.; Holter, Hans; Nóbrega, Valter (2024-12-11)
We argue that the fiscal multiplier of government purchases is increasing in the size o the spending shock: more expansionary government spending shocks generate larger multipliers and more contractionary shocks generate smaller multipliers. We empirically document this pattern across time, countries, and modes of financing. We propose a neoclassical mechanism that hinges on the relationship between fiscal shocks, their form of financing, and the response of labor supply across the wealth distribution. An incomplete markets model predicts that the aggregate labor supply elasticity is ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-015

Working Paper
The St. Louis Fed DSGE Model
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2024-12-10)
This document contains a technical description of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model developed and maintained by the Research Division of the St. Louis Fed as one of its tools for forecasting and policy analysis. The St. Louis Fed model departs from an otherwise standard medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model along two main dimensions: first, it allows for household heterogeneity, in the form of workers and capitalists, who have different marginal propensities to consume (MPC). Second, it explicitly models a fiscal sector endowed with multiple spending and revenue ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-014

Working Paper
The Beige Book and the Business Cycle: Using Beige Book Anecdotes to Construct Recession Probabilities
Gascon, Charles S.; Martorana, Joseph (2024-12-06)
The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book prior to each Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The report is a narrative based on anecdotal and qualitative information collected from a wide range of contacts in each of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. We take the lexicon approach to text analysis to create sentiment indexes that track changes in economic conditions from the very first Beige Book in May 1970 to the most recent (at the time of writing) in October 2024. We create additional indexes to account for various current-event shocks, such as political events or natural disasters that ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-037

Working Paper
Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy
Birinci, Serdar; Karahan, Fatih; Mercan, Yusuf; See, Kurt (2024-12)
We develop a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model featuring a frictional labor market with on-the-job search to quantitatively study the positive and normative implications of employer-to-employer (EE) transitions for macroeconomic outcomes and monetary policy. We find that EE dynamics played an important role in shaping inflation dynamics during the Great Recession and COVID-19 recoveries, with the former exhibiting subdued EE transitions and inflation despite both episodes sharing similar unemployment dynamics. Optimal monetary policy prescribes a strong positive response to EE ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-016

Working Paper
The Heterogeneous Impacts of Job Displacement: Evidence from Canadian Job Separation Records
Birinci, Serdar; Park, Youngmin; See, Kurt (2024-11-30)
When estimating earnings losses upon job separations, existing strategies focus on mass-layoff separations to distinguish involuntary separations from voluntary separations. We revisit the measurement of the sources and consequences of involuntary separations using Canadian job separation records. We refine existing strategies and find that only a quarter of mass-layoff separations are indeed layoffs. Isolating mass-layoff separations that reflect involuntary displacement, we find twice the earnings losses relative to existing estimates. We also uncover significant heterogeneity in losses for ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-022

Working Paper
The Impact of Racial Segregation on College Attainment in Spatial Equilibrium
Gregory, Victoria; Kozlowski, Julian; Rubinton, Hannah (2024-11-27)
This paper seeks to understand the forces that maintain racial segregation and the Black-White gap in college attainment, as well as their interactions with place-based policy interventions. We incorporate race into an overlapping-generations spatial-equilibrium model with parental investment and neighborhood spillovers. Race matters due to: (i) a Black-White wage gap, (ii) amenity externalities—households care about their neighborhood’s racial composition—and (iii) additional barriers to moving for Black households. We find that these forces account for 71% of the racial segregation ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-036

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