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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis  Content Type:Working Paper 

Working Paper
The Heterogeneous Impacts of Job Displacement: Evidence from Canadian Job Separation Records

When estimating earnings losses upon job separations, existing strategies focus on separations in mass layoffs to distinguish involuntary separations from voluntary separations. We revisit the measurement of the sources and consequences of involuntary separations using Canadian job separation records. We refine existing strategies and find that only a quarter of mass-layoff separations are indeed layoffs. Isolating mass-layoff separations that reflect involuntary displacement, we find twice the earnings losses relative to existing estimates. We also uncover significant heterogeneity in losses ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-022

Working Paper
The Interactions of Social Norms about Climate Change: Science, Institutions and Economics

We study the evolution of interest in climate change among different actors within the population and how the interest of these actors affects one another. First, we document the evolution of interest for each actor individually, and then we provide a model of cross-influences between them. We estimate this model using a Vector Autoregression (VAR). We measure interest among the general public, the European Parliament, central banks, general interest science journals, and economics journals by creating a Climate Change Index (CCI) based on mentions of climate change in these domains. Except ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-036

Working Paper
Heterogeneous Capital Ownership, Partial Democracy and Political Support for Immigration

This paper analyzes and compares equilibrium immigration levels of some popular political economy models in the context of unequal capital holdings. We show that immigration rises (falls) with inequality in a limited (inclusive) democracy where only a small (large) fraction of the population has voting rights. Furthermore, we highlight the similarities between a campaign-contributions model and a partial-democracy model in terms of their predictions about immigration policy. In particular, we show that extension of voting rights in a partial democracy has qualitatively similar implications on ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-035

Working Paper
Nominal Maturity Mismatch and the Liquidity Cost of Inflation

We document a liquidity channel through which unexpected inflation generates substantial welfare losses. Household balance sheets are nominal maturity mismatched: nominal liabilities have a longer duration than nominal assets. Due to this mismatch, losses from unexpected inflation are concentrated over short time horizons, while gains are spread out over the longer run. This has negative effects on liquidity-constrained households, who cannot easily borrow against their future gains. We quantify the importance of the liquidity channel and show that, for households in the lower half of the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-031

Working Paper
The geography of wealth: shocks, mobility, and precautionary savings

The spatial distribution of wealth in the United States is very heterogeneous, with important differences within and across US states. We study the distribution of wealth in a country and how it is shaped by the characteristics earnings across regions, and by the frictions individuals face to move and reallocate across space. For this, we develop a tractable model of consumption, savings, and location choice with many regions, incomplete markets, and heterogeneous agents facing persistent and transitory income shocks. Our analysis focuses on the role of income shocks, precautionary savings, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-033

Working Paper
The geography of wealth: shocks, mobility, and precautionary savings

The spatial distribution of wealth in the United States is very heterogeneous, with important differences within and across US states. We study the distribution of wealth in a country and how it is shaped by the characteristics earnings across regions, and by the frictions individuals face to move and reallocate across space. For this, we develop a tractable model of consumption, savings, and location choice with many regions, incomplete markets, and heterogeneous agents facing persistent and transitory income shocks. Our analysis focuses on the role of income shocks, precautionary savings, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-033

Working Paper
Lifetime Work Hours and the Evolution of the Gender Wage Gap

The gender wage gap expanded from 1940 and 1975 but narrowed sharply from 1980 to 1995. We use the model introduced in Ben-Porath (1967) to assess the role of gender differences in life cycle profiles of market time in explaining the gender wage gap dynamics over the long run. Men’s profiles changed little across cohorts, but women’s profiles converged to those of men, and especially so in higher-paying occupations. We calibrate the model and find that the implied trends in unobserved investment in human capital accumulation account for most of the long run gender wage gap dynamics. The ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-025

Working Paper
The Implications of Labor Market Heterogeneity on Unemployment Insurance Design

We digitize state-level and time-varying unemployment insurance (UI) laws on initial eligibility, payment amount, and payment duration and combine them with microdata on labor market outcomes to estimate UI eligibility, take-up, and replacement rates at the individual level. We document how levels of income and wealth affect unemployment risk, eligibility,take-up, and replacement rates both upon job loss and over the course of unemployment spells. We evaluate whether these empirical findings are important for shaping UI policy design using a general equilibrium incomplete markets model ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-026

Working Paper
Mind Your Language: Market Responses to Central Bank Speeches

Post-meeting central bank communication often moves markets, but researchers have paid less attention to the more frequent central bankers’ speeches. We create a novel dataset of U.S. Federal Reserve speeches and develop supervised multimodal natural language processing methods to identify how monetary policy news affect bond and stock market volatility and tail risk through implied changes in forecasts of GDP, inflation, and unemployment. We find that forecast revisions derived from FOMC member speeches can help explain volatility and tail risk in both equity and bond markets. Speeches ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-013

Working Paper
The economic effects of a potential armed conflict over Taiwan

This article examines the likely economic effects of a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan for the U.S. and the world by considering historical precedents. Such a conflict would likely produce a flight-to-safety in the asset market, huge disruptions in international trade, banking problems, and would greatly exacerbate existing fiscal pressures. The authorities of the People’s Republic of China would probably try to sell U.S. and other western securities prior to a conflict to avoid sanctions on those assets. Such sales would be temporarily disruptive but would likely have only marginal ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-034

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