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Working Paper
Parents, Patience, and Persistence: A Novel Theory of Intergenerational College Attainment
Fuller, David L.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2026-09-12)
We present a theory of intergenerational persistence in college attainment (a bachelor’s degree, BD) guided by two well-documented empirical regularities: (i) patient individuals are more likely to be college graduates, and (ii) patience persists across generations because parents choose to transmit it, along with other non-cognitive traits, to their children. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to formalize and evaluate these mechanisms in a general equilibrium model. In the model, (i) and (ii) are endogenous outcomes implying college persistence. “Standard mechanisms”, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-003

Working Paper
The Allocation of Immigrant Talent: Macroeconomic Implications for the U.S. and Across Countries
Birinci, Serdar; Leibovici, Fernando; See, Kurt (2026-09-08)
We quantify the macroeconomic costs of barriers to immigrant labor-market integration in the United States. We develop an occupational-choice model featuring natives and immigrants of multiple types who differ in productivity, preferences, and the wedges they face that distort occupational choices. Estimating the model with U.S. microdata, we find that immigrant barriers are sizable, especially for recent, non-fluent, and undocumented immigrants. Removing all barriers raises output by 1.5%. While targeted policies yield modest gains individually, jointly reducing barriers related to legal ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-004

Working Paper
Fleeting Forbearance in a World of Persistent Financial Distress
Mustre-del-Rio, Jose; Sanchez, Juan M.; Athreya, Kartik B. (2026-09-04)
CORRECT ORDER OF AUTHORS: Mustre-del-Río, Sánchez, Athreya. In the US, households often delay payments on unsecured debt for extended periods. These delinquencies are costly, making them a useful indicator of financial distress. Mortgage forbearance, another form of payment delay, saw swift take-up early in the COVID-19 pandemic, but was fleeting. Most borrowers exited quickly despite generous terms. This paper reconciles these seemingly contradictory payment postponement patterns using a life-cycle model of mortgages and unsecured debt. Combining survey evidence with credit history data, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2026-019

Working Paper
The Implications of Labor Market Heterogeneity for Unemployment Insurance Design
Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt (2026-09-01)
We estimate unemployment insurance (UI) eligibility, take-up, and replacement rates at the individual level and document how they vary with earnings, wealth, and unemployment duration. We extend a widely used framework that combines an incomplete-markets model with a frictional labor market to match our findings. We show that the optimal UI policy becomes substantially more generous once the model captures our findings. The gap between optimal policies in the two models is largely driven by endogenous UI take-up, which entails a utility cost: only those who value UI the most choose to claim ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-026

Working Paper
Can the Public Carry Trade Restore Fiscal Sustainability? Evidence from Korea's Consolidated Balance Sheet
Chien, YiLi; Lee, Hyungsuk; Lee, Junsang (2026-08-29)
Can governments use a carry-trade strategy to offset the fiscal costs of population aging? We examine this question through the consolidated balance sheet of Korea’s public sector, combining the assets and liabilities of the government, public pension and investment funds, and the central bank. The consolidated balance sheet reveals increasing reliance on a carry trade in which risky, increasingly foreign assets are financed with safe, low-yielding domestic liabilities. This strategy has generated a favorable return spread and strengthened public net worth. However, present-value accounting ...
Working Papers , Paper 2026-020

Working Paper
Hours Worked and Lifetime Earnings Inequality
Bick, Alexander; Rogerson, Richard; Blandin, Adam (2026-08-28)
We document large differences in lifetime hours of work using data from the NLSY79 and argue that these differences are an important source of inequality in lifetime earnings. To establish this we develop a rich heterogeneous agent model of labor supply and human capital accumulation and calibrate it to a sample of highly attached males. Our calibrated model implies that almost 20 percent of the variance in lifetime earnings is accounted for by differences in lifetime hours of work, with over 90 percent of this effect due to heterogeneity in preferences. Higher lifetime hours contribute to ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-024

Working Paper
RePEc, a Tool and Open Dataset for and about Economists
Schlaack, Anna; Zimmermann, Christian (2026-08-26)
RePEc is an initiative created by economists for economists in 1997. It functions primarily as a bibliographic tool, but it also collects various linked metadata about economists, their institutions, and their impact. Thus, a labor economist may be interested in RePEc beyond literature searches and tracking—namely, as a dataset describing a profession, its members, and their output. This essay describes RePEc’s origins and history, the many facets of its data and how the data can be accessed. It also provides some examples of scholarly studies leveraging RePEc data that could be of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2026-018

Working Paper
What Work Does Generative AI Do?
Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam; Deming, David; Schumacher, Tyler (2026-08-25)
We measure how workers use genAI for their jobs in a nationally representative survey linking genAI adoption to detailed occupations and tasks. Our data provide the first task-level genAI adoption indexes, which we show can inform analyses of genAI's labor market impact. Exposure scores explain some, but far from all, of the variation in adoption across occupations and tasks. We also distinguish our indexes from measures based on genAI platform chat logs, which differ conceptually and tend to over-classify chats into generic activities spanning many occupations. Finally, we highlight that ...
Working Papers , Paper 2026-017

Working Paper
The Erosion of Public Capital in Portugal
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2026-08-17)
This article documents the erosion of Portugal’s public capital stock since 2013 and assesses its macroeconomic implications. I extend the IMF capital series through 2027 using European Commission data and construct scenarios through 2035 for alternative infrastructure-project pipelines. In 2026, the stock is projected to remain 12.2 percent below its 2013 peak, while its ratio to GDP is projected to fall from 77.2 percent in 2013 to 52.6 percent. Short-horizon regressions show positive co-movement between public-capital and labor-productivity growth. A calibrated production-function ...
Working Papers , Paper 2026-016

Working Paper
The Erosion of Public Capital in Portugal
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2026-08-10)
This article documents the erosion of Portugal’s public capital stock since 2013 and assesses its macroeconomic implications. I extend the IMF capital series through 2027 using European Commission data and construct scenarios through 2035 for alternative infrastructure-project pipelines. In 2026, the stock is projected to remain 12.2 percent below its 2013 peak, while its ratio to GDP is projected to fall from 77.2 percent in 2013 to 52.6 percent. Short-horizon regressions show positive co-movement between public-capital and labor-productivity growth. A calibrated production-function ...
Working Papers , Paper 2026-016

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