Report
Measuring Real Activity Using a Weekly Economic Index
Mertens, Karel; Trivedi, Mihir; Lewis, Daniel J.; Stock, James H. (2020-04-01)
This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with the onset of and policy response to the novel coronavirus in the United States. The WEI is a weekly composite index of real economic activity, with eight of ten series available the Thursday after the end of the reference week. In addition to being a weekly real activity index, the WEI has strong predictive power for output measures and provided an accurate nowcast of current-quarter GDP growth in the first half of 2020. We document how the WEI responded to key events and data ...
Staff Reports , Paper 920

Working Paper
Measuring Real Activity Using a Weekly Economic Index
Mertens, Karel; Trivedi, Mihir; Lewis, Daniel J.; Stock, James H. (2021-03-02)
This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with the onset of and policy response to the novel coronavirus in the United States. The WEI is a weekly composite index of real economic activity, with eight of 10 series available the Thursday after the end of the reference week. In addition to being a weekly real activity index, the WEI has strong predictive power for output measures and provided an accurate nowcast of current-quarter GDP growth in the first half of 2020, with weaker performance in the second half. We document ...
Working Papers , Paper 2011

Working Paper
U.S. Economic Activity During the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak
Mertens, Karel; Lewis, Daniel J.; Stock, James H. (2020-04-17)
This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with the response to the novel Coronavirus in the United States. The WEI shows a strong and sudden decline in economic activity starting in the week ending March 21, 2020. In the most recent week ending April 4, the WEI indicates economic activity has fallen further to -8.89% scaled to 4-quarter growth in GDP.
Working Papers , Paper 2011

Using Data to Show When Recessions End
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2020-11-17)
Could weekly data—such as the Weekly Economic Index—be used in calculating when recessions end, in addition to monthly and quarterly data?
On the Economy

Report
High Frequency Data and a Weekly Economic Index during the Pandemic
Mertens, Karel; Trivedi, Mihir; Lewis, Daniel J.; Stock, James H. (2020-12-01)
This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with the onset of and policy response to the novel coronavirus in the United States. The WEI, with its ten component series, tracks the overall economy. Comparing the contributions of the WEI’s components in the 2008 and 2020 recessions reveals differences in how the two events played out at a high frequency. During the 2020 collapse and recovery, it provides a benchmark to interpret similarities and differences of novel indicators with shorter samples and/or nonstationary ...
Staff Reports , Paper 954

COVID-19: Forecasting with Slow and Fast Data
McCracken, Michael W. (2020-04-03)
Forecasting tools that use slow data can lag significantly behind current economic conditions. What about forecasting tools using fast data?
On the Economy